UBS Maintains Buy Rating on UBER, Optimistic About Agentic Super App Strategy Boosting Long-Term Value

Overview

This report analyzes Uber's 'Agentic Super App' strategy launched in 2026 and its impact on the company's fundamentals. UBS Securities maintains a 'Buy' rating on Uber with a target price of $111, based on a 16x multiple of the full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2027. The report's core view is that Uber is transitioning from a simple ride-hailing and food-delivery platform to a comprehensive super app by introducing agent-based AI features ('Agentic Experiences') and deepening its partnership with Expedia. This strategy aims to solve users' pain points in e-commerce shopping, enhancing user stickiness and transaction frequency while opening up high-margin advertising and affiliate marketing revenue streams. Despite the risk of rising service costs, the firm believes this will significantly expand customer lifetime value.

Core views

First, in terms of strategic partnerships, Uber has formed a B2B partnership with Expedia. Expedia's content library is integrated into Uber's platform, and when users confirm accommodation bookings on Uber, Expedia pays affiliate marketing commissions. UBS notes that this requires a shift in consumer behavior, and since Expedia only pays for incremental transactions, revenue growth may take time—but it will bring high-margin incremental contributions to Uber's advertising revenue. Second, in terms of product innovation, Uber has launched several 'Agentic' features to improve user experience and efficiency. These include 'Grocery Cart Assistant,' which allows users to convert mobile notes or photos into grocery carts via natural language, directly purchasing recipe ingredients; and 'Shop for Me,' which enables delivery drivers to perform retail shopping tasks—even purchasing items not listed in the app. These features aim to solve long-standing challenges in e-commerce grocery shopping, such as building shopping carts and finding products, eliminating user friction and accelerating growth in grocery gross bookings, thereby increasing average basket size and customer lifetime value. Additionally, Uber has introduced 'One Search' and 'Voice Booking' features, allowing users to search across Uber and Uber Eats apps via natural language prompts and interact and transact via voice. While this increases app usability and engagement, analysts also point out the potential rise in service costs, which may need to be covered by new revenue streams in the future. Finally, in terms of financial forecasts and valuation, UBS did not adjust its earnings forecast, maintaining its 2027 full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast at $13.5 billion. Using the EV/EBITDA valuation method with a 16x multiple, the target price comes to $111. The current stock price is around $74.47, implying an upside of approximately 49.8%. Key downside risks include macroeconomic weakness leading to consumption downgrades, regulatory legal risks (such as worker classification), intensifying competition, and execution risks for new products.

Analysis framework

UBS's analytical logic revolves primarily around two main themes: 'platform ecosystem expansion' and 'technology-driven efficiency.' First, the firm adopted a supply chain synergy analysis framework, assessing that Uber's partnership with Expedia is not merely a traffic exchange but rather a B2B affiliate marketing model that transforms Uber's massive traffic into high-margin advertising/commission revenue, fundamentally changing Uber's revenue structure. Second, at the technology application level, the report uses an 'user experience-conversion efficiency-monetization capability' analytical chain: By introducing Agentic AI to address specific pain points in e-commerce shopping (such as cumbersome input and difficult searching), it enhances user stickiness and transaction frequency, ultimately driving GMV growth and improved ad monetization capacity. This analytical approach emphasizes that technology is not just a tool but a lever for reshaping user behavior and business models.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Supply Chain Transmission

  Assessing the Business Logic of Uber's Partnership with Expedia

  The report analyzes the connection between upstream content providers (Expedia) and downstream traffic distribution platforms (Uber), determining how this B2B collaboration, through affiliate marketing mechanisms, converts traffic advantages into high-margin intermediary revenue, reflecting the logic of value redistribution across the upstream and downstream segments of the supply chain.

• Company Fundamentals and Financial FrameworkFree cash flow analysis

  Valuation Based on Adjusted EBITDA

  The report uses the EV/EBITDA multiple for valuation—a common metric for measuring a company's core operating cash flow generation capacity. By forecasting future EBITDA and multiplying it by a reasonable multiple, the target price is derived, reflecting the firm's assessment of the company's long-term free cash flow generation potential.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• UBER.US (Uber Technologies Inc)

  Directly benefits from the Agentic Super App strategy and its partnership with Expedia, considered the core asset.

  Strengths

  Possesses a large user base and logistics network; pioneered Agentic features to solve e-commerce pain points; partnership with Expedia brings high-margin incremental revenue.

  Weaknesses

  New experiences may lead to higher service costs; changes in consumer behavior take time; faces intense market competition.

  Comparison

  Compared to pure e-commerce platforms, Uber has stronger instant logistics fulfillment capabilities; compared to pure ride-hailing platforms, Uber expands its scenario boundaries through Food Delivery and Shopping.

  Risks

  Macroeconomic slowdown leads to lower discretionary spending; regulatory risks (worker classification, commission rates); new product execution falls short of expectations.

• EXPE.US (Expedia Group Inc)

  As Uber's B2B content partner, earns incremental revenue through affiliate marketing.

  Strengths

  Rich hotel and content inventory; reaches incremental users through Uber.

  Weaknesses

  Depends on Uber's traffic distribution; only pays for incremental transactions, limited initial contribution.

  Comparison

  Compared to other OTAs, Expedia enters non-traditional travel booking scenarios through Uber.

  Risks

  If Uber's user conversion rate falls below expectations, revenue will be limited.

Key data

• Target PriceUSD 111.00Based on a 16x multiple of adjusted EBITDA for 2027
• Current Stock PriceUSD 74.47Closing price as of April 29, 2026
• Expected Upside49.8%Based on the difference between target price and current price
• 2027 Adjusted EBITDA ForecastUSD 13.5 billionBenchmark data used for valuation calculation
• 2027 EPS Forecast (UBS)USD 4.54Diluted earnings per share

Impact & implications

For Uber, the Agentic Super App strategy represents a leap from a vertical-service platform to a full-fledged lifestyle platform. Through its partnership with Expedia, Uber not only enriches its supply-side content but also opens up high-margin advertising revenue channels, helping to improve its overall profitability structure. Although the introduction of new tech features may increase operational complexity and service costs in the short term, if successful in cultivating users' natural language interaction habits over the long term, it will greatly enhance user stickiness and conversion rates, thus solidifying its moat in local logistics and e-commerce delivery. For investors, this means Uber's growth story is shifting from simply growing order volumes to deeply mining customer lifetime value (LTV) and enhancing diversified monetization capabilities.

Risks

• Macroeconomic headwinds or lower consumer discretionary spending.
• Regulatory and legal risks related to worker classification or commission rates.
• Intensified market competition.
• Disruptions to information technology and communication systems.
• Execution risks associated with new product launches.
• Expansion into international markets and slower-than-expected execution speed.

What to watch

• The pace and scale of affiliate marketing revenue growth brought by Uber's partnership with Expedia.
• The actual impact of Agentic features (such as voice booking and natural language search) on user engagement and transaction frequency.
• Changes in service costs brought about by new experiences and corresponding pricing strategies or revenue stream development.
• Legislative progress in the regulatory environment regarding worker classification and rates.