China EV weekly orders diverge as market sentiment cools ahead of the summer slow season

Overview

This report tracks channel order conditions for major Chinese EV brands during June 22 to 27, 2026. Morgan Stanley notes that the order sentiment driven by recent new model launches is cooling, and the industry is entering a wait-and-see phase ahead of the summer slow season; however, to meet second-quarter EV sales targets, automakers' promotional push at the end of June may still bring short-term improvement in orders.

Core views

The core judgment is that industry demand momentum is weakening in the short term, but not deteriorating in a one-sided manner. Order performance shows clear divergence: Li Auto significantly outperformed on the back of the 2026 L8 launch; Xiaomi and HIMA brands showed greater week-over-week resilience; BYD pulled back after the earlier peak driven by new products; XPeng is under short-term pressure, with the market focused on the July 2 debut of the Mona LO3; and brands such as NIO, Geely Galaxy, and ZEEKR also saw week-over-week declines.

Analysis framework

The report uses channel feedback to compare weekly order ranges across major EV brands horizontally, and assesses short-term demand strength by combining week-over-week, month-over-month, and year-over-year changes. The analytical focus is not on long-term valuation models, but on order momentum, promotional cadence, new model launch catalysts, and the impact of the seasonal slow period.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency channel trackingWeekly order monitoring

  Observe short-term demand changes of automakers through channel order feedback from June 22 to 27.

  This method is suitable for capturing the impact of new model launches, promotions, and seasonal factors on short-term orders, but order data may lag final deliveries, revenue recognition, and profit performance.

• Relative performance comparisonWeek-over-week, month-over-month, and year-over-year comparison

  Compare WoW, MoM, and YoY metrics simultaneously to distinguish short-term fluctuations, monthly trends, and annual base effects.

  The report uses order ranges and change rates to identify momentum differences among brands; for example, Li Auto saw a sharp week-over-week increase, while BYD and XPeng declined week over week.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD Company Limited (1211.HK/002594.SZ)

  Leading China EV player, with orders pulling back from highs driven by new-product catalysts

  Strengths

  Absolute order volume remains significantly higher than peers, and MoM growth stays positive.

  Weaknesses

  WoW decline of about 30% shows that the order peak driven by the prior new model launch is beginning to normalize.

  Comparison

  Leads in scale but has weaker short-term momentum than Li Auto.

  Risks

  Promotional intensity, pulled-forward demand, fading new-product momentum, and intensifying competition.

• Li Auto Inc. (2015.HK/LI.O)

  A strong order brand driven by the launch of the 2026 L8

  Strengths

  Orders were about +75% WoW, +38% MoM, and +50% YoY, significantly outperforming peers this week.

  Weaknesses

  Strong orders depend on the catalyst from the new model launch, and sustainability remains to be seen.

  Comparison

  The most outstanding performer among major brands this week.

  Risks

  Conversion of new-model orders, the July slow season, and competition from rival models.

• XPeng Inc. (9868.HK/XPEV.N)

  Orders are under pressure, but there is a new-product event catalyst in the Mona LO3

  Strengths

  The July 2 debut of the Mona LO3 could become a key point for subsequent observation.

  Weaknesses

  Orders were -8% WoW, -72% MoM, and -30% YoY, indicating weak short-term momentum.

  Comparison

  Current order trends are weaker than Li Auto and the weekly resilience shown by Xiaomi/HIMA.

  Risks

  New model reception below expectations, slower-than-expected order recovery, and price competition affecting profitability.

• NIO Inc. (9866.HK/NIO.N)

  Strong YoY order growth but sharply weaker monthly momentum

  Strengths

  Orders were about +160% YoY, showing clear growth off a low base.

  Weaknesses

  WoW -8% and MoM -55%, indicating considerable short-term pullback pressure.

  Comparison

  Annual growth is strong, but short-term momentum lags Li Auto.

  Risks

  Order volatility, product cadence, competition, and disclosure of potential conflicts of interest related to investment banking business.

• Xiaomi (1810.HK)

  Relatively resilient weekly EV orders

  Strengths

  Broadly flat WoW, showing resilience against a backdrop of cooling overall sentiment.

  Weaknesses

  MoM -22% and YoY -98%, so the medium-term trend still needs to be interpreted cautiously.

  Comparison

  Weekly resilience is better than that of most brands with WoW declines.

  Risks

  Order base effects, product cadence, delivery capability, and competitive pressure.

Key data

• BYD orders72.7-73.2k; WoW -30%; MoM +9%; YoY -11%Orders normalized from the recent peak driven by the Great Tang launch; corresponds to 1211.HK/002594.SZ.
• Geely Galaxy orders17-17.5k; WoW -11%; MoM -25%; YoY -23%Short-term order momentum declined; the report mentions 0175.HK.
• Li Auto orders11.4-11.6k; WoW +75%; MoM +38%; YoY +50%Driven by the launch of the 2026 L8, this week's performance was better than peers; corresponds to 2015.HK/LI.O.
• NIO orders13-13.2k; WoW -8%; MoM -55%; YoY +160%Weekly and monthly momentum declined, but YoY remained strong; corresponds to 9866.HK/NIO.N.
• XPeng orders6.6-6.8k; WoW -8%; MoM -72%; YoY -30%The market is focused on the July 2 debut of the Mona LO3; corresponds to 9868.HK/XPEV.N.
• Leapmotor orders19-19.5k; WoW -2%; MoM +25%; YoY +90%WoW was basically stable, with strong monthly and annual performance.
• Tesla China orders9.5-9.7k; WoW -10%; MoM about -5%; YoY -18%The report notes coverage by Andrew Percoco.
• HIMA orders15.3-15.8k; broadly flat WoW; MoM -32%The weekly trend was relatively resilient.
• Aito orders9.9-10.1k; WoW +9%; MoM -41%; YoY +29%Improved week over week, but still declined on a monthly basis.
• ZEEKR orders5.7-5.9k; WoW -11%; MoM -35%; YoY +27%Short-term momentum was weak, though YoY still grew.
• Xiaomi orders7-7.2k; broadly flat WoW; MoM -22%; YoY -98%The report notes coverage by Andy Meng; corresponds to 1810.HK.

Impact & implications

For investment judgment, order divergence suggests the market may continue to prefer automakers with new model catalysts and resilient orders, while remaining cautious toward brands relying on promotional volume pushes or facing fading new-product momentum. Late-June promotions may improve short-term order data, but if the July slow-season gap materializes, the market will need to reassess demand sustainability, discount pressure, and margin risk.

Risks

• Orders may face a demand gap after entering the summer slow season in July.
• Quarter-end promotions may pull forward subsequent demand and put pressure on automakers' margins.
• The order momentum generated by new model launches may fade quickly, leading to volatility in short-term high-frequency data.
• Industry price competition may still affect revenue quality and profitability.
• Channel order feedback is not equivalent to final deliveries or financial performance.

What to watch

• Whether the late-June promotional push truly translates into an order rebound and achievement of second-quarter sales targets.
• Whether July slow-season orders show a clear demand gap.
• The sustainability of Li Auto 2026 L8 orders and delivery conversion.
• Order feedback after the July 2 debut of the XPeng Mona LO3.
• The speed of BYD order normalization and discount levels after the Great Tang launch.
• Whether the weekly order resilience of Xiaomi and HIMA brands continues.