Attacks on Russian refineries have caused more than 2 million b/d of recent capacity outages; crack spreads may remain elevated

Overview

The report tracks the operating and damage status of major Russian refineries through real-time fire detection, satellite imagery, and AI-based web information scraping. The research concludes that drone attacks have evolved into a large-scale, sustained strategy targeting Russia’s refining system, with recent capacity outages of more than 2 million b/d accounting for about 2% of global refining capacity. Under the combined effects of Russia’s restrictions on refined-product exports and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, global refined-product supply is tightening and crack spreads are near historical highs.

Core views

The core view is that Russian refining disruptions are persistent rather than short-term isolated events. The cumulative scope of drone attacks covers about 90% of Russia’s refining capacity, and about 80% of capacity was attacked in 2026. If there is no peace agreement or ceasefire arrangement between Russia and Ukraine, uncertainty around refinery attacks, repairs, and restarts will continue to widen the price differential between crude oil and refined products, and refiners as well as integrated oil & gas companies with refining and petrochemical businesses are expected to benefit at least through 2027.

Analysis framework

The research overlays NASA FIRMS real-time fire detection on satellite images of major Russian refineries and cross-validates the results with AI web scraping from Ukrainian, Russian, and other sources. The monitoring uses a one-week lookback window and classifies each refinery’s evidence of fire as strong, limited, ambiguous, or none, while also combining refining capacity, most recent attack date, and refinery complexity to assess the potential supply impact.

Methodology notes

• Alternative data monitoringSatellite remote sensing and real-time fire detection

  Use NASA FIRMS fire-detection data to identify abnormal heat sources in refinery areas.

  Real-time fire algorithms are overlaid on satellite images, and a one-week lookback window is used to determine whether each refinery shows recent signs of fire; the satellite basemap itself may not be real-time and cannot by itself prove actual equipment damage.

• AI information analysisMultilingual AI web scraping

  Scrape and organize attack and refinery operating information from Ukrainian- and Russian-language sources.

  Online reports are cross-validated with satellite fire signals to improve the reliability of judgments on the scale of recent shutdowns and attack timing.

• Energy supply-demand analysisCrack spread transmission analysis

  Derive changes in refined-product supply, prices, and refining margins from losses in refining capacity.

  Reduced refining capacity and constrained refined-product exports tighten product markets, widening the premium of refined products relative to crude oil and thereby supporting the profits of refiners and integrated oil & gas companies.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global refiners

  Direct beneficiaries of refining capacity outages and refined-product shortages

  Strengths

  Refined-product prices and crack spreads are near historical highs, which is favorable for refining margins.

  Weaknesses

  Benefits depend on the company’s own unit utilization, feedstock costs, and ability to maintain stable production.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure upstream producers, refiners are more sensitive to the widening spread of refined products relative to crude oil.

  Risks

  A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, rapid repairs at Russian refineries, removal of export restrictions, or restored smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz could all depress crack spreads.

• ExxonMobil (XOM)

  Integrated oil & gas beneficiary with refining and petrochemical operations

  Strengths

  Its integrated business structure can capture downstream profit improvement from high crack spreads, and the report assigns an Outperform rating.

  Weaknesses

  Multiple exposures across upstream, refining and petrochemicals, and chemicals may dilute the sensitivity to a single refining theme.

  Comparison

  The report rates it higher than Chevron and believes it can benefit from continued tightness in the refining and petrochemical market.

  Risks

  Declines in oil prices and refined-product spreads, weakening demand, refinery operating disruptions, and reversals in the geopolitical situation.

• Chevron (CVX)

  Integrated oil & gas beneficiary with refining and petrochemical operations

  Strengths

  High crack spreads can improve the refining and petrochemical business environment, while the integrated business provides some risk diversification.

  Weaknesses

  The report assigns only a Market-Perform rating, with a weaker view than for ExxonMobil.

  Comparison

  It also benefits from improved refining and petrochemical margins, but the report’s relative return expectation is more neutral.

  Risks

  Normalization of crack spreads, lower refinery utilization, slowing global energy demand, and easing geopolitical conflicts.

• Refined products such as gasoline and diesel

  Russian refining outages and export restrictions directly tighten supply

  Strengths

  Supply gaps and transportation bottlenecks jointly support prices and premiums relative to crude oil.

  Weaknesses

  High prices may suppress end-demand and prompt other regions to raise refinery run rates.

  Comparison

  Compared with crude oil, refined products are more directly affected by losses in refining capacity.

  Risks

  Russia resumes exports, damaged units restart, alternative supply increases, or end-demand declines.

• Crude oil

  Supported by geopolitical risks, but refinery shutdowns may weaken Russia’s local crude processing demand

  Strengths

  Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and broad geopolitical conflicts provide a risk premium for oil prices.

  Weaknesses

  Russian refinery shutdowns do not equate to a decline in global crude production and may cause local crude accumulation.

  Comparison

  The report believes the fundamentals of refined products and crack spreads are stronger than crude oil itself.

  Risks

  Restoration of transport routes, peace or ceasefire, increased supply, and slowing global demand.

Key data

• Recent Russian refining capacity outagesMore than 2 million b/dCorroborated by satellite imagery and online information over the past week.
• Share of global refining capacityAbout 2%The report believes this scale is already sufficient to have a significant impact on global refined-product supply and demand.
• Cumulative attacked capacity coverageAbout 90%Refers to Russian refining capacity involved in cumulative Ukrainian drone attacks.
• Attacked capacity coverage in 2026About 80%Shows that attacks accelerated significantly in 2026.
• Monitoring lookback window1 weekNASA FIRMS fire detection uses a one-week backward-looking observation window.
• Capacity of the largest refinery, Omsk430,000 b/dSatellite tracking shows strong evidence of fire.
• Russian refined-product export restrictionsExtended to the end of January 2027The report believes export restrictions will further tighten global gasoline and diesel markets.
• ExxonMobil rating and target priceOutperform; USD 182.00The table shows the closing price on August 5, 2026 was USD 151.63.
• Chevron rating and target priceMarket-Perform; USD 209.00The table shows the closing price on August 5, 2026 was USD 186.41.

Impact & implications

Refinery shutdowns first compress supplies of refined products such as gasoline and diesel, while not necessarily reducing crude supply at the same time, so refined-product prices may continue to strengthen relative to crude prices. Russia’s export restrictions further transmit domestic refining losses to the global market. For asset allocation, high crack spreads are favorable for refiners and integrated oil & gas companies with relatively high exposure to refining and petrochemicals, but may increase cost pressure on transportation, industrial, and other refined-product-consuming sectors.

Risks

• NASA FIRMS identifies real-time heat sources; the satellite basemap may not be real-time, and fire cannot be directly equated with permanent damage to refining units.
• Some heat sources may come from routine flaring, and the report provides only ambiguous or limited fire evidence for several refineries.
• More than 2 million b/d is an estimate of recent outages, and the actual duration of shutdowns, scope of damaged units, and restart progress remain uncertain.
• If Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement or ceasefire, the frequency of drone attacks and refining disruptions may decline rapidly.
• Restored smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz or Russia’s removal of refined-product export restrictions could cause refined-product prices and crack spreads to fall.
• High refined-product prices may suppress demand and encourage other regions to raise refinery run rates, thereby easing supply tightness.

What to watch

• NASA FIRMS abnormal heat sources and new attack records at major Russian refineries over the coming week.
• Repairs, restarts, and duration of the more than 2 million b/d of disrupted capacity.
• The enforcement scope of Russia’s gasoline and diesel export bans and whether they are extended further.
• Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace or ceasefire negotiations.
• The transit status of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on crude and refined-product logistics.
• Crack spreads between global gasoline and diesel prices and crude oil prices.
• The status of facilities with strong evidence of fire, including Omsk, Volgograd, Moscow, Taneco, and the Ufa refinery complex.