Goldman Sachs is constructive on Cheniere Energy's 2Q26 performance, focusing on debottlenecking execution and progress toward the SPL T7 FID

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' 2Q26 earnings preview for Cheniere Energy and Cheniere Energy Partners. The core view is that LNG will deliver a solid quarter, with EBITDA expectations above consensus, while CCL Stage 3, the SPL expansion, and potential debottlenecking projects provide catalysts for future growth. The report maintains a constructive view on LNG but retains a Sell rating on CQP, viewing LNG's capital allocation and growth returns as relatively more attractive.

Core views

Goldman Sachs expects LNG 2Q26 EBITDA of $1.784 billion, 7% above consensus, primarily driven by higher SPL and CCL volumes, lower-than-previously-expected O&M, and mark-to-market adjustments on commodity prices. FY26 EBITDA is expected to be $7.83 billion, slightly above consensus and the high end of company guidance. Over the medium to long term, approximately 95%+ of the company's capacity is contracted, providing high cash-flow visibility and supporting a path toward approximately $30 of DCF per share. By comparison, CQP 2Q26 EBITDA is expected to be $906 million, 5% above consensus, but Goldman Sachs still views its capital-return and distribution outlook as inferior to LNG's.

Analysis framework

The report combines an earnings-preview, forecast-revision, project-execution-tracking, and valuation-multiple framework: it first updates 2Q26 and FY26 EBITDA forecasts, then analyzes the effects of volumes, margins, O&M, the absence of one-time tax benefits, the commencement of long-term contracts, and spot optimization; it subsequently assesses the impact of CCL Stage 3, the SPL expansion, potential CCL brownfield expansion, and the capital-return plan on valuation and the investment view.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA multiple valuation

  EBITDA multiple valuation

  The $303 LNG target price is based on a 13.5x multiple of Goldman Sachs' 2027E EBITDA; the $50 CQP target price is based on a 12x multiple of 2027E EBITDA, after deducting net debt and other factors.

• factor_profileGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  The Goldman Sachs factor profile compares stocks with the broader market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics.

• event_catalystFID and project execution tracking

  FID and project execution tracking

  The report identifies the SPL expansion FID, CCL Stage 3 commissioning, the T7 completion timeline, potential delays to T8/T9, and debottlenecking approvals as key areas to monitor.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CHENIERE ENERGY INC (LNG.US)

  Core covered company; Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating

  Strengths

  2Q26 EBITDA expectations are above consensus; approximately 95%+ of capacity is contracted; the balance sheet is strong; and the paths for organic expansion and capital returns are clear.

  Weaknesses

  Margins may be affected by a higher proportion of volumes under long-term contracts and the absence of one-time tax benefits; asset concentration is relatively high.

  Comparison

  Compared with CQP, Goldman Sachs considers LNG's capital-allocation outlook more attractive, allowing it to pursue repurchases, dividends, deleveraging, and organic growth simultaneously.

  Risks

  Global natural gas prices below expectations, US natural gas prices above expectations, project execution issues, asset concentration risk, and the risk of CQP being consolidated at a high multiple.

• Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP)

  Related covered asset; Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating

  Strengths

  2Q26 EBITDA is expected to be $906 million, above consensus; the SPL expansion project could provide upside.

  Weaknesses

  The company is more focused on debt repayment ahead of the expansion FID, making distribution growth and capital-return appeal weaker than LNG's.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs believes LNG offers a superior combination of capital returns and growth compared with CQP.

  Risks

  CQP could face upside risk if the SPL expansion project delivers upside, financing terms are better than expected, CMI marketing inflows are stronger than expected, or LNG consolidates CQP at a high multiple.

Key data

• LNG 2Q26 EBITDA expectation$1,784mApproximately 7% above the $1,670m consensus estimate and approximately 5% above Goldman Sachs' prior estimate of $1,697m.
• LNG FY26 EBITDA expectation$7.83bSlightly above the $7.79b consensus estimate and slightly above the high end of the company's $7.25-$7.75b FY26 guidance range.
• LNG 2Q26 volume expectation677 tbtuBelow 1Q26's 689 tbtu but above 549 tbtu in the prior-year period.
• LNG 2Q26 EBITDA/volume$2.60/mmbtuDown from $3.40/mmbtu in 1Q26, primarily due to the absence of one-time tax benefits and a higher proportion of volumes under long-term contracts.
• CQP 2Q26 EBITDA expectation$906mApproximately 5% above the $862m consensus estimate and approximately 2% above Goldman Sachs' prior estimate of $891m.
• SPL expansion EPC contract$4.69bRepresents more than 6 mtpa of capacity; Bechtel's construction portion costs approximately $700 per ton less, while total project costs could approach the mid-$800s per ton.
• LNG target price$303Based on a 13.5x valuation multiple of 2027E EBITDA; rated Buy.
• CQP target price$50Reduced from $51 due to higher 2027E net debt; rated Sell.
• Capital-return assumptionsApproximately $500m/quarter of repurchases through 2027; $600m of repurchases expected in 2Q26Goldman Sachs also expects 10% annual dividend growth and believes the company has a clear path toward achieving its 200 million shares outstanding target in 2027.

Impact & implications

The report's investment implications for LNG are positive: near-term results could exceed expectations, project execution progress and FID milestones could provide catalysts, and long-term contracted cash flows and balance-sheet capacity support parallel organic growth and shareholder returns. The implications for CQP are more cautious: although quarterly EBITDA expectations are strong, the company is more focused on debt reduction ahead of the SPL expansion FID, making its capital-allocation appeal weaker than LNG's.

Risks

• Global natural gas prices below expectations.
• US natural gas prices above expectations.
• Project execution issues weakening market confidence in the company's execution track record.
• Asset concentration risk.
• Valuation risk from CQP being consolidated at a high multiple.
• Delays in permitting for the SPL expansion could affect the FID timeline.
• Potential delays to the subsequent T7 and T8/T9 timelines following CCL Stage 3.

What to watch

• Updates on CCL Stage 3 commissioning and the T7 completion timeline during the 2Q26 earnings call.
• Permitting progress for the SPL expansion and the possibility of an FID in late 2026 or early 2027.
• Commercialization, permitting, and unit capital expenditures for CCL debottlenecking and potential brownfield expansion projects.
• The tailwind from spot margins captured by LNG in the strong spot-price environment during 2Q26.
• Progress in realizing year-to-date optimization opportunities.
• The pace of quarterly repurchases, dividend growth, and execution toward the 200 million shares outstanding target in 2027.
• Global natural gas market volatility, the situation in the Middle East, long-term SPA demand, and the near- and medium-term LNG price outlook.