China home appliance June tracker: domestic market shows early signs of bottoming, overseas demand resilience continues

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ monthly tracker of June 2026 data for China’s home appliance industry, covering domestic retail, factory shipments of air conditioners/washing machines/refrigerators/VRF systems, overseas exports, demand for robot vacuum cleaners and robotic lawn mowers, the property cycle, freight and commodity costs, and valuation performance of covered companies. The core conclusion is that domestic home appliance demand is showing early signs of bottoming under support from an easier base and promotions, while exports remain supported by Chinese manufacturers’ share gains and innovative products, though the property chain and limited pricing pass-through remain constraints.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes domestic home appliance data has begun to improve sequentially: NBS home appliance and electronics retail sales fell 9% YoY in June versus a 16% decline in May; domestic air-conditioner factory shipments fell 7% YoY versus a 15% decline in May and were better than previous production plans. Looking ahead, as the drag from pull-forward demand eases and comparison bases loosen, domestic demand growth is expected to gradually recover. However, high-frequency data still shows that with demand recovery remaining weak, companies find it difficult to fully pass through cost inflation via price increases. Overseas, home appliance exports continued in June to outperform IOL and market expectations, with Chinese manufacturers continuing to gain share through innovative and competitive products, while Europe’s heatwave boosted attention to Chinese air-conditioning products.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a multi-source high-frequency tracking framework: using NBS retail data to measure domestic end demand; using IOL factory shipments and production plans to track white-goods supply and demand; using AHAM, overseas consumer confidence, U.S. property data, and app download data to observe overseas demand; using e-commerce channels such as Tmall, Taobao, JD, and Amazon US to track category, brand, sales volume, and ASP changes; and combining freight rates, key commodity costs, and housing completion and sales data to assess cyclical and cost pressures.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly trackingIOL factory shipments and production plan tracking

  Use YoY factory shipment changes and deviations from production plans to judge changes in industry supply and demand

  Total air-conditioner factory shipments fell 7% YoY in June, with both domestic sales and exports outperforming prior production plans, indicating actual demand or channel performance was better than market concerns had implied.

• Retail demand trackingNBS and e-commerce channel retail monitoring

  Use official retail data plus online channel sales, volumes, and ASP YoY changes to judge end demand and pricing pressure

  The decline in NBS home appliance and electronics retail sales narrowed, but most online categories still faced YoY pressure, indicating demand improvement remains at an early stage.

• Overseas demand proxy indicatorsApp downloads and overseas e-commerce sales monitoring

  Use RVC and robotic lawn mower app downloads as well as Amazon US sales changes as proxies for overseas demand and share changes

  Growth in overseas RVC downloads and Roborock downloads both accelerated, while Ninebot’s robotic lawn mower downloads grew strongly, supporting the view that overseas smart hardware demand remains resilient.

• Cycle and cost trackingProperty, freight, and commodity cost monitoring

  Use housing completions/sales, CCFI freight rates, and key commodity prices to judge home appliance demand drag and margin pressure

  Declines in housing completions and sales widened, while freight rates rose and key commodity costs fell, creating two-way effects on demand and margins.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Midea Group A/H

  Buy-rated home appliance leader that Goldman Sachs continues to prefer

  Strengths

  Shareholder returns provide downside protection, while overseas markets and emerging businesses offer upside potential; European air-conditioner sales have grown significantly driven by PortaSplit.

  Weaknesses

  June total air-conditioner shipments fell 11% YoY, with both domestic sales and exports in negative growth, so the near term remains constrained by industry demand and cost pass-through.

  Comparison

  In June domestic air-conditioner sales share, Midea improved sequentially; however, its factory shipment performance was weaker than Haier and Hisense.

  Risks

  Insufficient domestic demand recovery, price competition, inability to fully pass through cost inflation, and volatility in overseas demand.

• Ninebot

  Growth name on which Goldman Sachs remains constructive

  Strengths

  Complete product lineup, rising domestic E2W market share, structural growth in robotic lawn mowers, overseas E2W potential, and valuation close to historical lows.

  Weaknesses

  Growth expectations depend on expansion into new categories and delivery in overseas markets, while near-term performance remains affected by consumer beta.

  Comparison

  Robotic lawn mower app downloads grew more than 200% YoY in June, indicating share gains relative to the industry.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected penetration of new products, slower-than-expected overseas expansion, intensified competition, and weaker consumer demand.

• Roborock

  Cleaning appliance name on which Goldman Sachs has turned more constructive

  Strengths

  Overseas app downloads grew 64% YoY, faster than the industry average; global market share is rising, new products are expanding especially floor washers, and there are sequential signs of easing competition in China.

  Weaknesses

  APAC share fell 2 percentage points YoY to 33%, and margin recovery after domestic strategy adjustments still needs verification.

  Comparison

  Overseas RVC industry downloads grew 56% YoY, with Roborock outpacing the industry; on Amazon US, Roborock, Ecovacs, Dreame, and iRobot all gained share.

  Risks

  Volatility in overseas demand, data fluctuations due to Prime Day timing shifts, renewed competition, and slower-than-expected margin recovery.

• Haier

  Major comparable company in the white-goods industry

  Strengths

  June total air-conditioner shipments grew 8% YoY, with domestic sales and exports up 4% and 23% respectively; washing machine performance in May was above the industry.

  Weaknesses

  May total refrigerator shipments fell 1% YoY, with some categories below the industry.

  Comparison

  June air-conditioner shipment performance was stronger than Midea and Gree.

  Risks

  Weak domestic white-goods demand, property drag, and pricing and cost pressures.

• Hisense

  Major comparable company in the white-goods industry

  Strengths

  June domestic air-conditioner sales grew 12% YoY, and May total refrigerator shipments grew 18% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  June air-conditioner exports fell 17% YoY, while domestic VRF performance was below or close to the industry.

  Comparison

  June total air-conditioner shipments fell 3% YoY, better than Gree and Midea but weaker than Haier.

  Risks

  Export volatility, domestic competition, and weak demand from the property chain.

• Gree

  Major comparable company in the white-goods industry

  Strengths

  Domestic VRF performance in May was above the industry.

  Weaknesses

  June total air-conditioner shipments fell 13% YoY, with domestic sales and exports down 26% and 25% respectively; online air-conditioner market share declined sequentially.

  Comparison

  June air-conditioner shipments were weaker than Haier, Hisense, and Midea.

  Risks

  Weak air-conditioner demand, declining channel share, price competition, and cost pressure.

Key data

• NBS home appliance and electronics retail sales2026 June YoY -9%, 2026 May YoY -16%The decline narrowed in June, indicating sequential improvement on an easier base.
• Total air-conditioner factory shipments2026 June YoY -7%, 2026 May YoY -11%The decline narrowed in June and was better than IOL’s prior production plan.
• Domestic air-conditioner factory shipments2026 June YoY -7%, 2026 May YoY -15%Domestic shipments were better than expected, possibly supported by deeper discounts and improved demand during the 618 period.
• Air-conditioner export factory shipments2026 June YoY -7%, 2026 May YoY -4%The YoY decline widened slightly versus May, but still beat prior production plans; exports from Chinese leaders’ overseas factories are not fully reflected in the IOL measure.
• Midea Europe air-conditioner sales1H26 grew more than 70% YoY in France, Spain, Germany, and the UKThe report says growth was driven by the hit product PortaSplit.
• Total washing machine shipments2026 May YoY +2%, 2026 April YoY +4%Growth slowed; domestic sales were -9% YoY, exports were +12% YoY.
• Total refrigerator shipments2026 May YoY +9%, 2026 April YoY +6%Growth accelerated; domestic sales were -9% YoY, exports were +23% YoY.
• VRF sales value2026 May YoY -6%The decline widened from -5% in April; domestic sales were -8% YoY, exports were +1% YoY.
• Overseas RVC industry app downloads2026 June YoY +56%, 2026 May YoY +38%Americas, Europe, and APAC all improved or maintained growth.
• Roborock overseas app downloads2026 June YoY +64%, 2026 May YoY +54%Faster than the industry average, with YoY share gains in the Americas and Europe.
• Amazon US RVC sales2026 June YoY +131%, 2026 May YoY -16%The report believes this may be affected by Prime Day being moved forward to June.
• Ninebot robotic lawn mower app downloads2026 June YoY growth of more than 200%Indicates solid demand for robotic lawn mowers and continued share gains for Ninebot.
• China housing completions2026 June YoY -27%, 2026 May YoY -20%48% below pre-COVID levels, with post-property-cycle demand still under pressure.
• China residential sales area2026 June YoY -13%, 2026 May YoY -12%57% below pre-COVID levels, slightly weaker than May.
• Midea Group A valuation table000333.SZ, closing price CNY 82.71, target price CNY 98.00, upside 18%, rating BuyTaken from Exhibit 35 covered companies table in the report.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the report supports maintaining a relatively positive allocation stance toward leaders with overseas share gains, product innovation, shareholder return protection, or growth in emerging businesses. Midea’s downside risk is protected by shareholder returns, while overseas and new businesses provide upside potential; Ninebot benefits from rising market share in electric two-wheelers, structural growth in robotic lawn mowers, and potential overseas expansion; Roborock benefits from global share gains, expansion in new products such as floor washers, and margin recovery following easing competition in China. However, the sector as a whole still faces uncertainties including the strength of domestic demand recovery, pricing pass-through, property-related drag, and freight volatility.

Risks

• Domestic demand recovery may not be strong enough, making it difficult for companies to fully pass through cost inflation via price increases.
• Property completions and residential sales continue to weaken, suppressing post-cycle demand for kitchen appliances, white goods, and other categories.
• Shipping freight rates have continued to rise over the past month, which may pressure export margins.
• Domestic sales of categories such as air conditioners, washing machines, and refrigerators are still declining YoY, and early improvement is not yet equivalent to a full recovery.
• Some overseas demand data is affected by promotional timing, for example Amazon US RVC sales were affected by Prime Day being brought forward, so monthly YoY figures may fluctuate significantly.
• If industry competition intensifies again, it may drag on price, ASP, and margin recovery.

What to watch

• The gap between 3Q26 IOL air-conditioner production plans and actual shipments, especially whether the decline in domestic sales continues to narrow.
• Whether NBS home appliance and electronics retail sales can continue to improve on an easier base.
• Whether sales, volumes, and ASP on Tmall, Taobao, and JD recover in sync.
• Whether overseas sales of Chinese air-conditioning products remain sustained after Europe’s heatwave, and whether shipment contributions from overseas factories of leaders such as Midea become more evident.
• Changes in overseas RVC app downloads, Amazon US sales, and Roborock share, distinguishing real demand from the impact of promotional timing shifts.
• Progress in Ninebot robotic lawn mower app downloads and overseas E2W expansion.
• Whether China housing completions and sales area continue to remain below pre-COVID levels.
• The net impact of changes in freight and key commodity prices on exports and margins.