Swiss watch exports rose 9.1% year-on-year in August as Goldman Sachs highlights improving industry momentum and a favorable read-across for Watches of Switzerland.

Overview

This industry update reviews August Swiss watch-export data and recent luxury-watch news. Goldman Sachs finds that aggregate export momentum has improved, although regional trends remain uneven, and argues that the data support its positive view of Watches of Switzerland Group (WOSG).

Core views

Swiss watch exports increased 9.1% year-on-year in August to CHF1.8bn, following 9.6% growth in July and a 16.4% decline in August 2025. Goldman Sachs notes that trailing-12-month exports have turned positive for the first time in two years, while year-to-date exports are up 1.7%. The firm nevertheless emphasizes that import data remain volatile, particularly in Mainland China, Hong Kong and the US. Mainland China exports rose 16% in August after falling 18.5% in July and 7% in the second quarter; Hong Kong rose 1% after a 0.5% gain in July and 8% growth in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs attributes the diverging trends partly to stronger tourism and offshore shopping by Chinese consumers, consistent with second-quarter company commentary. Year-to-date, Mainland China exports remain down 5% while Hong Kong is up 3%, which the firm places alongside luxury-peer commentary indicating continued Mainland China volatility, improving offshore spending and still-double-digit negative two-year run rates in Mainland China. The US, the largest market, recorded a 19% year-on-year export decline in August to CHF198mn, following a 27% gain in July and a 29% decline in the second quarter. Goldman Sachs links the volatility to comparisons distorted by shipment movements around tariff implementation in April and August 2025 and a more recent tariff reduction in November 2025. Despite an 8% year-to-date decline, the two-year stacked year-to-date growth rate was 9%, which the firm regards as evidence of continued US luxury-market strength. UK imports were up 46% year-to-date, which Goldman Sachs views positively alongside WOSG's comments on improving flagship-location trends. Other regional readings were mixed: Japan rose 22%, Singapore 9% and South Korea fell 1%. In Europe, the UK gained 46% in August, Germany 34%, Italy declined 40% and Spain declined 38%; France rose 114%, though the firm cautions that re-exports may affect other EU countries. UAE exports rose 6% after falling 4% in July, with continued Middle East conflict volatility cited as a potential influence. By price bracket, all segments except CHF500–3,000 grew by volume and value. Volume growth was 15% below CHF200, 7% for CHF200–500, negative 2% for CHF500–3,000, and 3% above CHF3,000. Value growth was 13% below CHF200, 6% for CHF200–500, negative 1% for CHF500–3,000, and 10% above CHF3,000. This pattern indicates relative resilience at both the entry and high ends of the market, while the mid-price category lagged. Industry news also points to rising consumer interest in vintage, pre-owned and heritage-inspired watches, especially among younger buyers seeking individuality and storytelling. Goldman Sachs sees this as reinforcing the strategic value of WOSG's certified pre-owned offering, whose authentication, servicing and certification capabilities can build trust and attract customers. The firm also notes that second-hand luxury demand is expanding faster than the broader luxury market, while the Swiss industry is gradually exiting furlough schemes amid weaker demand and lower production volumes. Recovery remains uneven, with leading brands outperforming and vertical integration increasing. Goldman Sachs says these developments reinforce its positive WOSG view. It cites the group's more than 50% US sales exposure, hard-luxury concentration, skew toward high-end consumers and multiple growth opportunities including branded jewellery and Rolex CPO.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs uses Swiss watch-export data to assess regional and price-segment demand, compares current results with prior months, quarters and two-year stacked growth rates, and then connects those indicators with recent company and industry commentary. It uses this read-across to explain the implications for Watches of Switzerland Group's geographic mix, customer exposure and certified pre-owned business.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisVolume-price decomposition

  Regional export tracking and price-bracket analysis by shipment volume and value.

  The report separates watch-export performance by market and price range, then compares volume and value changes to identify where demand is relatively resilient or weak.

• Industry AnalysisUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Industry export and resale trends are used as a read-across to a luxury-watch retailer.

  Goldman Sachs links Swiss export conditions, consumer behavior and the secondary market to the likely operating backdrop for Watches of Switzerland Group.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Watches of Switzerland Group

  Goldman Sachs views improving industry data and resale demand as favorable read-acrosses for the group.

  Strengths

  More than 50% of sales are in the US; exposure to resilient hard luxury and high-end consumers; authentication, servicing and certification capabilities in certified pre-owned.

  Comparison

  The report contrasts the group's favorable US and UK positioning with uneven demand across other watch-export markets.

  Risks

  US shipments remain tariff-sensitive and regional luxury demand, especially in Mainland China, remains volatile.

Key data

• Swiss watch exportsCHF1.8bn; +9.1% y/y in AugustCompared with CHF1.6bn and a 16.4% year-on-year decline in August 2025; July growth was 9.6%.
• Year-to-date Swiss watch exports+1.7%Trailing-12-month exports turned positive for the first time in two years.
• US exportsCHF198mn; -19% y/y in AugustYear-to-date exports were -8%, but the two-year stacked year-to-date rate was +9%.
• Mainland China exports+16% y/y in AugustFollowed -18.5% in July and -7% in the second quarter; year-to-date exports were -5%.
• Hong Kong exports+1% y/y in AugustFollowed +0.5% in July and +8% in the second quarter; year-to-date exports were +3%.
• UK imports+46% year-to-dateAlso up 46% in August, following +9.5% in July and +9% in the second quarter.
• High-end watch bracket+10% by value for watches above CHF3,000The CHF500–3,000 segment was the sole negative bracket, down 1% by value and 2% by volume.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs interprets the positive aggregate export trend and the US market's two-year stacked growth as supportive for luxury-watch demand, despite near-term regional and tariff-driven volatility. For WOSG, the firm highlights its US mix, hard-luxury exposure, affluent customer base and certified pre-owned expansion as differentiating factors.

Risks

• Swiss watch-import trends remain volatile in Mainland China, Hong Kong and the US.
• US export data are affected by tariff-related shipment volatility and base effects.
• The Swiss watch recovery remains uneven, with weaker demand and lower production volumes still pressuring manufacturers and suppliers.
• Middle East conflict volatility may affect UAE market performance.