Pop Mart Domestic Online Growth Slows, Miniso Accelerates IP New Releases

Overview

This report provides Goldman Sachs' monthly tracking update on Chinese IP retailers and the toy industry (primarily covering Pop Mart, Miniso, and Bloks). The report focuses on analyzing May sales momentum, new product/IP releases, and overseas market performance. The core conclusion is that Pop Mart faces challenges from a high base effect domestically, leading to slower online growth, and although its decline in the US market has narrowed, it remains in contraction territory. In contrast, Miniso maintains strong growth momentum by rapidly launching high-quality IP products, particularly with rebounding growth in the US market. Bloks drives growth by increasing SKU count.

Core views

Demand Side and Channel Performance: Pop Mart's online sales in the China market are significantly impacted by the high base effect. Total sales from Tmall and Douyin flagship stores grew 29% YoY in May, well below the 95% growth in April. Operations on the Douyin platform showed lagging year-over-year and sequential rates after entering June, partly due to the high comparison base caused by a surge in supply of the Labubu "Big Into Energy" series in June 2025. In the US market, credit card sales declined 36% YoY in May. Although this narrows from the 43% decline in April, it is mainly attributable to a lower comparison base last year, and pressure is expected to increase again in June. As of early Q2, cumulative YoY credit card sales in the US remained down approximately 40%. Miniso demonstrates strong execution. The company continued to rapidly launch IP products in May and early June, including its own IP YOYO, movie-related IPs (such as Star Wars, Toy Story), and popular IPs (such as Chiikawa x Sanrio). Management stated that same-store sales growth was positive in April-May, and Labor Day sales grew by high double digits YoY, in line with company guidance. In the US market, credit card sales grew 31% YoY in May, accelerating sequentially from 19% in April, driving cumulative growth of 26% year-to-date in Q2. Supply and Product Strategy: Pop Mart launched the Dear Birds multi-IP series in May, but the initial release did not sell out completely. Sales exceeded 32,000 units in the first month on Douyin, performing relatively flatly compared to the initial heat of the previous "Have a good run" series. New plush toy series for Crybaby and Hacipupu also did not sell out within days of their initial release. On the secondary market, discounts for IPs such as Labubu, Molly, and Dimoo widened further in May, with sample SKUs for Labubu generally seeing discounts of 30%-45%. Miniso continues to enrich its IP matrix and opened a Gallery exhibition in Shanghai. Its own IP YOYO also appeared as an accessory on the Met Gala red carpet, enhancing brand exposure. Bloks accelerated its pace of new product releases in Q2, with increases in both the number of series and SKUs launched year-over-year and sequentially, mainly focusing on existing major IPs such as Ultraman and Transformers. For its adult line products, most IPs achieved sequential sales growth in May on the Tmall flagship store, excluding Pokémon.

Analysis framework

The institution adopts a method combining high-frequency third-party data tracking with qualitative analysis. First, it uses third-party databases (such as Moojing, Chanmama) to track real-time sales data and ranking changes for each company on core e-commerce platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin to capture short-term sales momentum. Second, it cites Bloomberg credit card sales data as a high-frequency proxy indicator for overseas market demand. Although there is some noise, it reflects trend-based changes. Third, it monitors secondary market price premiums/discounts and Google Trends search indices to judge IP popularity and the sustainability of consumer interest. Finally, it comprehensively evaluates companies' product innovation capabilities and brand operational efficiency by combining the number of SKUs released, launch speed, and marketing events (such as co-branding and exhibitions).

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Observing sales drivers by decomposing Volume and Price or discount rates.

  The report not only focuses on sales growth rates but also details the volume of specific SKUs sold (e.g., Dear Birds sold 32,000 units) and secondary market discount rates (e.g., Labubu discounted 30%-45%). This helps determine whether growth stems from genuine consumer demand or simply low-price promotions or inventory buildup.

• Cycle and Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Inflection Point Analysis

  Focusing on changes in growth rates after the high base effect dissipates and seasonal factors.

  The report frequently mentions the impact of 'high bases' on May growth rates and predicts that June's comparison bases will be more challenging. This analytical method helps investors strip away base effects to see the true endogenous growth trajectory of the business.

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  Building competitive barriers through IP reserves, launch frequency, and exclusivity.

  The report compares the differences in IP operations between Pop Mart and Miniso. Miniso responds to competition by rapidly introducing external popular IPs (such as Chiikawa) and strengthening its own IPs (YOYO), while Pop Mart relies on its strong internal IP incubation capabilities. The popularity of IPs directly determines the premium pricing power and repurchase rate of products.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Pop Mart (9992.HK)

  Core target, domestic online growth slowing, overseas under pressure

  Strengths

  Possesses strong IP incubation capabilities (e.g., Labubu, Skullpanda), large brand influence

  Weaknesses

  Faces high base challenges domestically, US market sales still declining, widening secondary market discounts indicate weakening popularity of some IPs

  Comparison

  Compared to Miniso, Pop Mart relies more on the cyclical explosion of single blockbuster IPs, and earnings volatility may be higher

  Risks

  Single IP dependency risk, intensifying competition, inadequate cost/control

• Miniso (MNSO.US / 9896.HK)

  Core target, strong IP strategy execution, strong overseas growth

  Strengths

  Fast IP product launch speed, high supply chain efficiency, rebounding US market growth, improving same-store sales

  Weaknesses

  Macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical risks

  Comparison

  Compared to Pop Mart, Miniso has a richer variety of categories and more diverse IP sources (own + licensed), with stronger risk resistance

  Risks

  Decline in store productivity, SSSG recovery falling short of expectations, operating expenses exceeding expectations

• Bloks Group Ltd. (0325.HK)

  Representative of building block category, accelerating new product launches

  Strengths

  Focuses on existing mainstream IPs (Ultraman, Transformers), increased SKU count

  Weaknesses

  Brand awareness still lags behind top players

  Comparison

  In growth stage, fast growth but small base

  Risks

  Sales channel management, inventory control, market competition

Key data

• Pop Mart China Online Sales Growth Rate (May)+29% YoYBelow +95% YoY in April, affected by high base
• Pop Mart US Credit Card Sales Growth Rate (May)-36% YoYSlightly narrowed from -43% YoY in April
• Miniso US Credit Card Sales Growth Rate (May)+31% YoYSequential acceleration from +19% YoY in April
• Pop Mart Labubu Secondary Market Price Spread (May)30%-45% DiscountWidened slightly from April, indicating cooling popularity
• Pop Mart Dear Birds Douyin Initial Launch Sales>32k unitsPerformed flatly compared to previous hot series selling out at launch

Impact & implications

For Pop Mart, the short term requires overcoming growth pressure brought by the high base. The market focus is on whether the upcoming World Cup (June 11 - July 19) can effectively boost attention and sales for core IPs like Labubu. If the World Cup marketing effect is poor, it may further verify the risk of cyclical declines in IP popularity. For Miniso, rapid IP iteration and global expansion (especially rebounding growth in the US market) are its core highlights, indicating that its 'IP + Retail' strategy has strong adaptability and growth potential overseas. Bloks drives growth by increasing SKU density; attention should be paid to its channel management and inventory turnover efficiency.

Risks

• Pop Mart: Single IP risk or inability to expand IP portfolio; intensifying competition; improper cost/operating expense control
• Miniso: Decline in China store productivity due to intensified competition; global same-store sales and store opening speed falling short of expectations; geopolitical risks; operating expenses exceeding expectations
• Bloks: IP portfolio expansion and sales intensity falling short of expectations; fluctuations in channel and inventory management capabilities; brand awareness improvement falling short of expectations

What to watch

• Marketing effectiveness and sales conversion of IPs like Labubu during the World Cup from June 11 to July 19
• Release status and sales performance of high-quality IP products during Miniso's summer peak season
• Progress of continuous overseas expansion and margin changes for each company