Goldman Sachs Expects ATAT 1Q26 Results to Beat Expectations, HTHT to Mostly Meet Consensus

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs preview report on the China Hotel sector's 1Q26 performance, focusing on Atour Lifestyle Holdings and H World Group. The report concludes that after Jinjiang and Supu Hotels announced their Q1 results, market focus has shifted to HTHT and ATAT reporting in the next two weeks. Goldman Sachs expects ATAT results to exceed market expectations, while HTHT will basically align with company guidance.

Core views

The core view is ATAT is relatively more attractive in the short term. After underperforming relative to HTHT noticeably over the past 6 months, expectations have been reset to a lower level, while retail and supply chain businesses may still drive revenue and EBITDA beats. HTHT fundamentals remain steady, with good domestic hotel revenue growth, but overseas business and Deutsche Hospitality seasonal losses limit overall surprise potential.

Analysis framework

The report combines company earnings release schedule, peer results already announced, hotel RevPAR and ADR trends, ATAT online retail GMV tracking, supply chain centralized procurement progress, Bloomberg consensus estimates, valuation multiples and historical target prices for cross-validation. For ATAT, emphasis is placed on retail GMV and franchise supply chain revenue; for HTHT, emphasis is on domestic vs. overseas revenue growth differences and EBITDA performance.

Methodology notes

• Performance Forecast1Q26 earnings preview

  Revenue, EBITDA, margin and consensus comparison

  Judging whether results may beat or meet expectations through company guidance, peer disclosure, operational data and market consensus.

• Operations TrackingAtour online retail GMV tracker

  Online Retail GMV Tracking

  Using data from Moojing, Chanmama and other platforms to track GMV changes on Tmall/Taobao, JD.com, Douyin etc., to assess ATAT retail revenue growth.

• Industry MetricsRevPAR / ADR / Occupancy analysis

  Revenue per Available Room, Average Daily Rate and Occupancy Rate

  Assessing domestic hotel demand, price and occupancy recovery via hotel operating metrics.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDA relative valuation

  Enterprise Value/EBITDA multiple comparison

  Comparing forward 12-month EV/EBITDA multiples of ATAT and HTHT to evaluate relative value proposition and valuation repair space.

• Goldman Sachs Internal FrameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple and Integrated Factors

  Goldman Sachs compares stocks with market and industry peers using growth, financial return, valuation multiple and composite indicators.

• Goldman Sachs Internal FrameworkM&A Rank

  M&A Probability Score

  Goldman Sachs uses M&A Rank from 1 to 3 to assess probability of a company becoming an acquisition target; companies with high or medium probability may include M&A component in target price.

• Goldman Sachs Internal ToolQuantum

  Financial History, Forecasts and Ratios Database

  Quantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database used for single-company deep analysis and cross-industry, cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT)

  Core coverage company, the stock most anticipated to beat expectations in the report

  Strengths

  High growth in retail GMV, increased supply chain revenue, expectations downgraded, valuation approx. 10x FY26E EV/EBITDA lower than HTHT.

  Weaknesses

  Retail tracking data may deviate 10%-20% from actual disclosure; Revenue growth sensitive to consumption and e-commerce channel performance.

  Comparison

  Compared to HTHT, ATAT stock significantly underperformed over past 6 months, but Goldman Sachs believes its 1Q26 results more likely to generate upside surprise.

  Risks

  Weaker macro environment, RevPAR growth below expectations, slower recovery in consumption/travel demand, franchise expansion below expectations.

• H World Group (HTHT; 1179.HK)

  Core coverage company, expected to broadly meet guidance in 1Q26

  Strengths

  Domestic revenue expected to grow 8% YoY, total revenue expected at upper end of full-year guidance, EBITDA grows 18% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  Overseas revenue expected to decline 4% YoY, Deutsche Hospitality suffers seasonal loss in Q1 dragging results.

  Comparison

  Compared to ATAT, HTHT valuation approx. 12x FY26E EV/EBITDA, stronger recent stock performance, thus less short-term upside elasticity.

  Risks

  Overseas business recovery below expectations, Deutsche Hospitality operation drag, domestic demand or RevPAR growth slowing.

• China Hotel Sector

  Industry background and peer comparison

  Strengths

  Latest weekly RevPAR, ADR and occupancy all improving YoY, supply scale recovering growth.

  Weaknesses

  Industry still affected by macro consumption, travel demand and franchise financing environment.

  Comparison

  Jinjiang and Supu Hotels have announced Q1 results; report uses them as reference for HTHT and ATAT expectations.

  Risks

  Weaker macro environment, excessive hotel supply expansion, price competition, consumer travel demand volatility.

Key data

• ATAT 1Q26 Revenue Forecast+44% YoYHigher than Bloomberg consensus year-over-year growth rate of approx. 30%-35%.
• ATAT Online Retail GMV Tracker1Q26 approx +70% YoY or higher; Table shows online GMV tracker 1Q26 is RMB 1.1607 billion, YoY +77%Management annual goal is +25%-30%; Report notes historically actual disclosed sales may deviate from tracking data by 10%-20%.
• ATAT 1Q26 EBITDA ForecastRMB 699 million, +48% YoYHigher than Bloomberg consensus of RMB 570 million; Implied EBITDA margin 25.4%.
• ATAT Target Price ChangeUS$52.0, originally US$51.0Goldman Sachs raised FY26-28E Adjusted EBITDA by approx. 1% due to retail and supply chain growth better than expected.
• HTHT 1Q26 Revenue Forecast+6% YoYCompany full-year guidance is 2%-6%; Domestic revenue expected +8%, Overseas revenue expected -4%.
• HTHT 1Q26 EBITDA ForecastApprox. RMB 1.8 billion, +18% YoYIncludes Deutsche Hospitality approx. RMB 27 million slight loss; Q1 is typically seasonal low.
• HTHT Target PriceADR US$62.0; H-Share HK$48.0Goldman Sachs maintains FY26-28E forecasts and 12-month target price unchanged.
• Latest Weekly Domestic Hotel RevPAR+7% YoYWeek ending April 19-25, 2026, ADR approx. +4% YoY, Occupancy approx. +2 percentage points.
• Hotel Supply ScaleApprox. 403,000 hotels in March 2026Statistical scope: Average rooms >15; Jan 2025 approx. 370,000.
• Relative ValuationATAT approx. 10x FY26E EV/EBITDA; HTHT approx. 12xGoldman Sachs believes ATAT has better relative value after recent underperformance.

Impact & implications

For investors, ATAT short-term performance realization and expectation repair may become clearer catalysts, especially if retail GMV and supply chain contributions continue strongly. HTHT maintains Buy rating and solid target price, but results are more likely to meet rather than beat expectations. On an industry level, domestic RevPAR, ADR and occupancy turned positive in April 2026, supporting hotel demand improvement, but macroeconomics, consumption and franchise expansion remain key variables.

Risks

• Macro environment weaker than expected, leading to RevPAR growth slower than expected.
• Financing channels in China weaker than expected, potentially leading to fewer franchise additions than expected.
• Consumption and travel demand recovery in China slower than expected.
• Potential dilutive M&A risk.
• Deutsche Hospitality performance weaker than expected bringing cash drag.
• ATAT online retail GMV tracking data may deviate 10%-20% from final disclosed metrics.

What to watch

• ATAT releases 1Q26 actual revenue, EBITDA and retail sales data on May 13.
• HTHT mid-May earnings: domestic revenue, overseas revenue and Deutsche Hospitality loss situation.
• Whether ATAT retail GMV continues to significantly exceed management's annual growth goal of 25%-30%.
• Whether franchise centralized procurement and supply chain revenue contribution continues to improve.
• Whether domestic hotel RevPAR, ADR and occupancy maintain YoY improvement in Q2.
• Whether the 12-month forward EV/EBITDA valuation gap between ATAT and HTHT converges.