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China Resources Beer accelerated growth in June, while a recovery in Bud China has yet to appear

Institution
Bernstein
Date
2026-07-24
Authors
Euan McLeish, Hao Wang, CFA, Mufei Gao, Makoto Morozumi
Company
China beer industry
Ticker
1876.HK; 291.HK; 168.HK; 600600.CH
Industry
Food & Beverages/Beer
Rating
291.HK Outperform; 168.HK Outperform; 600600.CH Market-Perform; 1876.HK Market-Perform
NeutralLow confidenceChina beer industry sales growth slowed to +1% YoY in June, but China Resources Beer and Yanjing delivered strong performance, Bud China remained under significant pressure, and Tsingtao Brewery's decline narrowed though Shandong remained a drag.
AuthorsEuan McLeish, Hao Wang, CFA, Mufei Gao, Makoto Morozumi
Target price291.HK HK$47.50; 168.HK HK$69.00; 600600.CH RMB60.00; 1876.HK HK$7.30
CoverageAsia-Pacific
Asset classesEquity
Business segmentsOn-premise channel、Off-premise channel、Super Premium、Premium、Mainstream+、M/S & Eco
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesBernstein（Other）

AI summary card

China Resources Beer accelerated growth in June, while a recovery in Bud China has yet to appear

Bernstein believes China beer industry sales growth slowed to +1% in June, but China Resources Beer accelerated to +6% driven by the off-premise channel and premiumization, while Bud China still declined by -4%.

China Resources Beer 291.HK: Outperform, target price raised from HK$46.0 to HK$47.5; Tsingtao Brewery H-shares 168.HK: Outperform, target price lowered from HK$71 to HK$69; Tsingtao Brewery A-shares 600600.CH: Market-Perform, target price lowered from RMB62 to RMB60; Budweiser APAC 1876.HK: Market-Perform, target price lowered from HK$7.40 to HK$7.30.
China beerChina Resources BeerBudweiser APACTsingtao BreweryYanjing BeerChannel divergenceBigOne Lab
  • National beer sales rose +1% YoY in June, below +2% in May; the on-premise channel slowed to +1%, while the off-premise channel improved to +2%.
  • China Resources Beer sales rose +6% YoY in June, with the off-premise channel improving sharply from +1% in May to +8%, while the on-premise channel held at +4%.
  • Bud China sales fell -4% YoY in June, worsening further from -3% in May, and the report believes an inflection point remains hard to see.
  • Yanjing Beer is not under coverage but continued to lead, with sales up +15% YoY in June and continued share gains across most channels and price tiers.
  • Tsingtao Brewery's June decline narrowed to -1%, but Shandong remained the main drag; the regression model suggests Q2 revenue decline may widen to about -3%.

Report interpretation

Overview

This report is Bernstein's monthly update on China beer industry sales performance in June 2026. Based on BigOne Lab's nationwide POS and restaurant QR-code data, it tracks sales growth, share changes, and forward revenue signals for major brewers across provinces, channels, and price bands. Overall, industry growth in June slowed versus May, but divergence among companies was clear: China Resources Beer and Yanjing continued to strengthen, Bud China continued to lag, and Tsingtao Brewery and Chongqing Brewery performed in between.

Core views

The core views are: first, overall industry volume is still growing modestly but momentum slowed at the margin, with national beer sales up +1% YoY in June and three-month rolling growth holding at +2%. Second, China Resources Beer is the key positive change among covered companies, with June growth accelerating to +6%, mainly driven by an off-premise rebound and Premium product contribution. Third, Bud China remains the weakest major brewer, with June sales down -4% YoY and the on-premise channel turning negative again, indicating recovery remains unstable. Fourth, Tsingtao Brewery's decline narrowed, but the Shandong market continued to drag, and Q2 revenue pressure may still be higher than previously expected. Fifth, although not covered, Yanjing became the strongest industry benchmark with +15% June growth and ongoing share gains.

Analysis framework

The report uses BigOne Lab monthly sales data to break down YoY beer sales growth across national, provincial, channel, and price-band dimensions, and regresses BigOne Lab quarterly sales growth against beer revenue growth disclosed by listed companies to assess near-term revenue trends for CRBeer, Bud China, and Tsingtao.

Methodology notes

  • alternative_data_regressionBigOne Lab POS and restaurant QR-code sales tracking

    Regression of sales YoY growth against reported revenue growth

    The dataset covers about 180,000 supermarket POS stores and menu QR-code data from 230,000 restaurant outlets, allowing monthly tracking of sales performance by countrywide, province, channel, and price tier. The report notes that the data does not cover nightlife channels, and CRBeer's regression has a low r2, so related revenue forecasts retain uncertainty.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • China Resources Beer Holdings Co Ltd / 291.HK
    Core positive name
    Strengths
    +6% YoY sales growth in June, off-premise rebounded to +8%, on-premise held at +4%, with standout performance in Premium and Guangdong.
    Weaknesses
    The report notes CRBeer's regression r2 is low, making revenue forecasts less reliable than for some peers; July comparison base becomes higher.
    Comparison
    Significantly outperformed Bud China and Tsingtao Brewery among covered brewers, trailing only uncovered Yanjing.
    Risks
    High base effect, channel volatility, slower Premium growth, and insufficient model correlation.
  • Budweiser Brewing Co APAC Ltd / 1876.HK
    Pressured name
    Strengths
    Zhejiang and Premium trends were relatively better, and off-premise decline narrowed slightly from -10% to -9%.
    Weaknesses
    June sales fell -4% YoY, worsening from May; the on-premise channel shifted from +2% to -1%; performance in strong province Guangdong still lagged.
    Comparison
    Remained the weakest performer among major brewers, clearly lagging China Resources Beer, Yanjing, and Tsingtao Brewery.
    Risks
    Delayed recovery in the China business, continued channel share loss, pressure in premium price tiers, and earnings forecast downgrades.
  • Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd / 168.HK; 600600.CH
    Moderate improvement but still dragged
    Strengths
    June sales decline narrowed to -1%, the off-premise channel remained in positive growth, and trends improved in Guangdong, Fujian, and Shaanxi.
    Weaknesses
    The Shandong market remained a severe drag, and on-premise sales still declined; the report cut EPS by about 3%.
    Comparison
    Performed better than Bud China, but weaker than China Resources Beer and Yanjing; H-shares maintained Outperform, A-shares maintained Market-Perform.
    Risks
    Insufficient recovery in Shandong, wider Q2 revenue decline, and pressure on expenses and margins.
  • Chongqing Brewery
    Uncovered benchmark name
    Strengths
    Xinjiang remained strong, and the off-premise channel improved slightly.
    Weaknesses
    Overall June growth slowed to +1%, while the on-premise channel dropped sharply from +19% in May to +1%.
    Comparison
    In June it significantly lagged China Resources Beer and Yanjing, but was slightly better than Tsingtao Brewery and Bud China.
    Risks
    Fading momentum in the on-premise channel, and weakness in Guangdong and the local Chongqing market.
  • Yanjing Beer
    Uncovered strong benchmark name
    Strengths
    +15% YoY sales growth in June, on-premise +23%, off-premise +11%, with standout performance in Premium and Guangdong.
    Weaknesses
    The report does not cover it, so there is no rating or target price; on-premise performance in Guangxi and Hebei remained under pressure.
    Comparison
    It was the strongest performer among major brewers in June and gained share across most channels and price tiers.
    Risks
    Sustainability of high growth, pressure in select provinces, and high base risk.

Key data

  • National beer sales growth+1% YoY in June 2026; +2% in May; +2% for the three months rolling through June 30Industry aggregate growth slowed modestly.
  • On-premise channel growth+1% YoY in June 2026; +3% in MayOn-premise channel momentum slowed.
  • Off-premise channel growth+2% YoY in June 2026; +1% in MayOff-premise channel improved at the margin.
  • China Resources Beer sales growth+6% YoY in June 2026; +3% in May; Q1 average +4%The strongest performer among covered companies, with a significant contribution from the off-premise channel.
  • Bud China sales growth-4% YoY in June 2026; -3% in MayContinued to rank among the weaker major brewers.
  • Tsingtao Brewery sales growth-1% YoY in June 2026; -2% in May; Q1 average -2%The decline narrowed, but Shandong remained the core drag.
  • Yanjing Beer sales growth+15% YoY in June 2026Not under coverage, but the strongest industry performer.
  • Provincial performanceGuangdong overall +9%, Shandong -11%, Fujian worsened from 0% in May to -4%Guangdong was the main bright spot, while Shandong continued to drag on Tsingtao Brewery.
  • Price-tier performancePremium +3%, Super Premium -14%, Mainstream+ slightly acceleratedWithin the high-end segment, Premium remained the main growth driver, while Super Premium was under pressure.

Impact & implications

The investment implication points to structural divergence: the improving H1 trend at China Resources Beer supports earnings forecasts and a target price increase; Budweiser APAC faces pressure on valuation and earnings forecasts as its China business remains in decline; although Tsingtao Brewery's June decline narrowed, weak Q2 performance led to EPS downgrades; uncovered Yanjing continues to display strong competitive momentum, which may pressure the industry's share structure.

Risks

  • BigOne Lab data does not cover nightlife channels, which may understate or overstate the true sales momentum of some brands.
  • CRBeer's revenue regression has a low r2, so forecasts for H1 revenue growth derived from the model carry high uncertainty.
  • China Resources Beer and Bud China face higher comparison bases in July, so short-term growth may fluctuate.
  • Bud China's recovery depends on a few provinces and Premium segments; if diffusion is insufficient, it may continue to lose share.
  • If the Shandong drag on Tsingtao Brewery persists, it may limit the overall recovery and weigh on earnings forecasts.

What to watch

  • Whether China Resources Beer's growth can continue after July base effects shift.
  • Whether Bud China's on-premise channel can turn positive again and whether Guangdong improves.
  • Whether Tsingtao Brewery's decline in Shandong narrows.
  • Whether divergence between Premium and Super Premium price tiers continues to widen.
  • Whether Yanjing Beer's share gains persist and create stronger competitive pressure on covered companies.
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