UBS 2026 Future of Healthcare Conference: Structural opportunities and localized demand caution across U.S. supply-chain segments

Overview

UBS and its ARC network hosted the 2026 Future of Healthcare Conference, covering verticals across the U.S. healthcare supply chain, including consumer health, dental service organizations, PBMs, dental innovation products, and distribution. Participating companies included 10x Health Systems, EverlyHealth, Heartland Dental, North American Dental Group, PDS Health, Smile Brands, vVARDIS, Affirmed Rx, and Judi Health. The overall takeaway is that dental end demand is stable but not strong, consumer health and lab partnerships still have room to grow, the PBM selling season is notably active, and service-based moats among dental distributors remain resilient.

Core views

The report is more positive on Quest Diagnostics (DGX)'s consumer business, ALGN's value proposition within large DSOs, and HSIC's distribution and service capabilities for DSOs; slightly cautious on 1Q dental end demand; and attentive to PBM transparency and RFP activity, while noting that this does not necessarily imply a wholesale reshaping of incumbent dynamics.

Analysis framework

The report is based on conference panel discussions and management interviews, and organizes industry demand, channels, pricing, reimbursement, competition, and long-term structural trends by consumer health, DSO, PBM, and vVARDIS product themes.

Methodology notes

• Conference researchManagement panel interviews

  Capture frontline industry trends through comments from private and established-company management teams

  The report primarily draws on management views from multiple thematic panels to extract end demand, channel partnerships, RFP activity, product adoption, and distributor value propositions.

• Industry chain analysisHealthcare supply chain vertical decomposition

  Observe the consumer health, dental service organization, PBM, dental distribution, and clinical lab layers separately

  This approach helps distinguish growth drivers, competitive barriers, reimbursement risk, and demand cyclicality across different segments.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Quest Diagnostics (DGX)

  A beneficiary of consumer health and lab partnerships

  Strengths

  Rising consumer testing demand, higher lab utilization, and partnerships with DTC and diagnostics companies may support growth in its consumer business.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide specific earnings estimates, and the employee benefits market is still not fully penetrated.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure DTC testing platforms, DGX has advantages in lab network and testing capacity.

  Risks

  Regulation, reimbursement, changes in commercial payer contracts, competition from hospital in-house labs, and cost pressure.

• Align Technology (ALGN)

  A beneficiary of clear aligners at large DSOs

  Strengths

  DSO panelists praised its technology, clinical workflow, and consumer brand recognition, and some users posted revenue growth of more than 20% in 2025.

  Weaknesses

  Scanner costs are relatively high, and limits on non-iTero scan submissions may affect adoption among some non-ALGN users.

  Comparison

  For general dentists, differences among aligner systems matter more, and ALGN's brand and workflow advantages are more pronounced.

  Risks

  Dental end-demand volatility, equipment costs, brand substitution, and macro consumer sentiment.

• Henry Schein (HSIC)

  A beneficiary of dental distribution and service capabilities

  Strengths

  Large DSOs recognize the value of its alternative sourcing, equipment installation, service support, and national team, and online commodity wholesalers have difficulty replacing its core relationships.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not quantify HSIC's revenue or earnings leverage, and some DSOs still use Patterson Companies as their primary distributor.

  Comparison

  Compared with online commodity channels such as AMZN, HSIC has a stronger moat in equipment service, installation, and complex procurement support.

  Risks

  Distribution competition, tariff and price volatility, attempts by DSOs to build in-house service teams, and the dental equipment demand cycle.

• Patterson Companies

  One of the main distributors for large DSOs

  Strengths

  Some panelists named Patterson Companies as a primary distributor, indicating it still has a place in large DSO channels.

  Weaknesses

  The report is less positive on it than on HSIC and provides no specific growth data.

  Comparison

  Along with HSIC, it is an important participant in large DSO procurement and service systems.

  Risks

  Insufficient service differentiation, customer concentration, and dental demand volatility.

• AffirmedRx / Judi Health

  A participant related to the PBM transparency trend

  Strengths

  Benefiting from self-insured employers' focus on fiduciary responsibility and transparent pharmacy benefit models, with a significant increase in RFP opportunities.

  Weaknesses

  The report explicitly notes that active RFPs do not necessarily translate into a material challenge to incumbent PBMs.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional PBMs, new PBMs place greater emphasis on transparent models and employer fiduciary responsibility.

  Risks

  The sustainability of profitability once rebates and rebate guarantees are reduced, as well as regulatory changes and customer switching difficulty.

• vVARDIS / Curodont

  An innovative product for early dental caries treatment

  Strengths

  Curodont has 25 years of scientific evidence, a 90%+ clinical success rate, easy-to-use workflow, and exclusive distribution by HSIC.

  Weaknesses

  Commercialization is still at an early stage, and the product currently applies mainly to early small-cavity cases.

  Comparison

  Compared with the traditional observe-then-drill-and-fill path, Curodont offers an earlier, non-invasive treatment model.

  Risks

  The speed of reimbursement expansion, dentist adoption, patient willingness to pay out of pocket, and commercialization uncertainty in new use cases such as animal dentistry.

Key data

• Report date2026-04-13UBS Global Research publication date.
• PBM RFP opportunities8-10xA PBM panelist said this year's number of RFP opportunities was roughly 8-10 times last year's.
• DSO market consolidation potentialover 50%A panelist expects DSO share of the dental market to rise from roughly 20-30% currently to more than 50% over the next few years.
• vVARDIS coverageabout 20% of U.S. dental clinicsCurodont has been commercialized in U.S. dental channels since early 2024 and currently covers about 20% of U.S. dental clinics.
• Curodont clinical success rate90%+The report says Curodont's clinical success rate exceeds 90%.
• Curodont per-application fee$100-$125Dentists typically charge patients about $100-$125 per application.
• Curodont reimbursementMedicaid in 11 U.S. states and the U.K. NHSThese channels are currently reimbursed at a level close to fillings.
• Personalized medicine growth thememid-teens percentage growthThe consumer health panel described personalized medicine as a mid-teens percentage growth theme.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the report favors companies with channel partnerships, clinical workflow integration, and service-based distribution moats. DGX may benefit from consumer testing and higher-value test penetration; ALGN's technology, brand, and clinical workflow advantages within large DSOs are still recognized; and HSIC's installation, service, and procurement support reduce substitution risk from pure online low-price distributors. By contrast, dental end demand still needs monitoring in the near term, while PBM transparency creates opportunities but also carries the risk of profit-model re-rating.

Risks

• The clinical laboratory industry faces risks from regulatory and reimbursement changes.
• Changes in commercial payer contracts may cause limited but still important market-share shifts.
• Insourcing by hospitals and competition from outreach labs may intensify.
• Commercial payer and PAMA-related reimbursement pressure may persist.
• Material inflation and rising labor costs may increase lab operating expenses.
• Dental demand may be affected by weather, macro consumer sentiment, and patient affordability.
• Under PBM transparency models, the sustainability of economic profits is in question if rebates and rebate guarantees are reduced.

What to watch

• Whether dental DSO end traffic and revenue trends in the subsequent quarters of 2026 recover from the 1Q disruption.
• ALGN's adoption rate in large DSOs and general dentist channels, and whether iTero ecosystem constraints affect penetration.
• Whether HSIC continues to strengthen large DSO relationships through service, installation, and alternative sourcing.
• Whether RFP activity in the 2027 PBM selling season truly translates into customer migration and share shifts.
• Whether DGX's consumer business benefits from DTC testing, higher-value testing programs, and lab partnerships.
• Progress in Curodont's coverage of U.S. dental clinics, reimbursement coverage, and animal dentistry applications.