618 first-day top KOL livestream improved versus Women's Day, but growth was not strong; Mao Geping continues to lead

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' pulse check on China's cosmetics industry for the 2026 618 Shopping Festival. It focuses on the first-day performance of top KOL beauty pre-sale livestreams on May 21, and combines channel checks, platform discounts, SKU launches, and brand GMV changes to assess industry momentum. The report notes that the 618 Shopping Festival contributes heavily to second-quarter online sales, so while first-day livestream data cannot represent the full cycle, it can reflect a brand's ability to capture traffic early in the promotion, discount discipline, and momentum in core products.

Core views

The core view is that first-day top KOL livestream performance improved versus Women's Day, but overall there was no especially strong absolute growth. At the platform level, Tmall discounts were basically stable, while JD.com and Douyin promotions were narrower than last year's 618 and the promotion cycle was shorter. At the brand level, Mao Geping continued to clearly outperform, driven by core makeup SKUs and new products to deliver more than 10% GMV growth; Proya Group's decline narrowed to about 1%, partly helped by more SKUs and bundle sales; Giant Biogene and Bloomage Biotechnology were still clearly down due to a high base and channel strategy changes; Botanee and Shanghai Jahwa fell by about 20% under a high base. Goldman Sachs reminds readers that a single top KOL and Tmall livestream sample cannot fully represent brand performance, and full-cycle data across Tmall, Douyin, and other platforms should be used for judgment.

Analysis framework

The report uses an event-driven channel tracking approach, taking the first day of 618 top KOL livestreams as a short-cycle observation window and comparing each brand's SKU count, discount level, core product sales, and GMV year-over-year changes, against last year's 618, Singles' Day, and Women's Day. Platform analysis covers Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin promotion pacing and discount intensity; company analysis covers China cosmetics names such as Giant Biogene, Proya, Mao Geping, Bloomage Biotechnology, Botanee, and Shanghai Jahwa.

Methodology notes

• Channel trackingTop KOL livestream pulse check

  Observe early promotion sales momentum through first-day top KOL livestream data.

  This method focuses on the number of SKUs launched, discount rates, core item sales, and year-over-year GMV changes, but the report explicitly warns that Tmall top KOL livestream data cannot represent platform-wide or full-cycle performance.

• Valuation methodP/E target multiple method

  Discount the 2027E P/E target multiple back to end-2026 and combine it with cost of equity to calculate the 12-month target price.

  Different companies use different target multiples and discount or premium assumptions; for example, Mao Geping uses 28x 2027E P/E, Giant Biogene uses 22x, Proya uses 19x, Bloomage Biotechnology uses 27x, Botanee uses 27x, and Shanghai Jahwa uses 30x.

• Research frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs compares stock characteristics using growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and a composite measure.

  Growth is based on forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; Financial Returns on ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; Multiple on valuation metrics such as P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA; and Integrated combines growth, returns, and valuation attractiveness.

• Research toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs' proprietary financial database.

  Quantum is used to access company financial history, forecasts, and ratios, and can support deep single-company analysis or cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mao Geping Cosmetics Co.

  Core beneficiary name

  Strengths

  First-day livestream GMV grew more than 10% year over year, caviar cushion sales grew about 50% year over year, and the new pre-makeup sunscreen primer lotion sold about 20,000 units; Goldman Sachs rates it Buy with a HK$106 target price.

  Weaknesses

  Growth depends on deeper penetration of mid-to-high-end makeup, continued expansion of star SKUs, and marketing efficiency.

  Comparison

  It was the strongest performer among the tracked brands in the report, clearly outperforming Proya, Giant Biogene, Bloomage Biotechnology, Botanee, and Shanghai Jahwa.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected penetration of mid-to-high-end beauty, higher-than-expected marketing spending, and intensified competition from overseas premium brands.

• Proya Cosmetics

  Improving but still neutral

  Strengths

  Group GMV fell only about 1% year over year, with pressure easing somewhat; the core brand has a rich SKU mix covering series such as Ruby, Shuangkang, Yuanli, and Energy.

  Weaknesses

  TIMAGE fell about 43% year over year, and some core products were affected by bundle sales and product mix.

  Comparison

  It was weaker than Mao Geping but significantly better than Giant Biogene and Bloomage Biotechnology; Goldman Sachs rates it Neutral with a Rmb69 target price.

  Risks

  New product development for core brands, competitive intensity, operational uncertainty after management changes, and potential dilution from H-share listing.

• Giant Biogene Holding

  Under pressure but Buy maintained

  Strengths

  The company still has a positioning in professional skincare and medical dressings, and Goldman Sachs rates it Buy with a HK$46 target price.

  Weaknesses

  First-day livestream GMV fell about 72% year over year, affected by a high base and a channel strategy tilted toward self-operated and lower-tier KOLs.

  Comparison

  Its short-term livestream performance was clearly weaker than Mao Geping and Proya.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected growth in the professional skincare market, rising competition, unsuccessful product development, and regulatory risks.

• Bloomage Biotechnology Corp.

  Weak name

  Strengths

  Some products still had relatively stable discounts, and the company has diversified businesses across cosmetics, medical devices, and raw materials.

  Weaknesses

  Group GMV fell about 68% year over year; QuadHA and Biohyalux reduced SKUs, while MedRepair and Biomeso were absent from livestreams.

  Comparison

  It ranked near the bottom among tracked companies; Goldman Sachs rates it Sell with a Rmb30 target price.

  Risks

  Upside risk would come if skincare recovers faster than expected, cosmetics demand is stronger than expected, competition eases, or the sales expense ratio falls faster than expected.

• Botanee Biotech

  Neutral watch name

  Strengths

  Winona's core SKU sales were resilient, price points were relatively stable, and some discounts were more disciplined.

  Weaknesses

  Group GMV fell about 22% year over year and was still affected by a high base.

  Comparison

  It performed worse than Mao Geping and Proya, but better than Giant Biogene and Bloomage Biotechnology; Goldman Sachs rates it Neutral with a Rmb42.2 target price.

  Risks

  Penetration in dermatology-grade skincare, market share, new brand contribution, contribution from non-skincare categories, and A&P investment intensity may all deviate from expectations.

• Shanghai Jahwa United

  Recovery play

  Strengths

  Herborist added SKUs, and Taiji Water showed relatively strong resilience; Goldman Sachs rates it Buy with a Rmb25 target price.

  Weaknesses

  GMV fell about 20% year over year, mainly due to declines in ViVE-related products, and Dr.Yu was absent from livestreams.

  Comparison

  It performed worse than Mao Geping and Proya, was close to Botanee, but did better than Bloomage Biotechnology and Giant Biogene.

  Risks

  Impacts from overseas business impairments, Herborist store closures, weaker-than-expected Dr.Yu/ViVE sales, weaker-than-expected online execution, and management transition effects.

Key data

• 618 contribution to second-quarter online GMVabout 75%Coverage includes Taobao, Tmall, and JD.com, based on Goldman Sachs online tracking data.
• 618 contribution to full-year GMVabout 21%This reflects the importance of the May-June shopping festival for full-year online sales.
• Tmall promotion discountabout 15% offBroadly stable versus last year's 618.
• JD.com promotion discountup to about 10% offNarrower than last year's two coupons, which offered up to about 17% off.
• Douyin promotion discountup to about 13% offNarrower than last year's about 15% off.
• Mao Geping first-day livestream GMVup more than 10% year over yearThe report views it as the clearest leader.
• Mao Geping caviar cushionup about 50% year over yearThe core makeup product was the strongest performer.
• Mao Geping new pre-makeup sunscreen primer lotionabout 20,000 unitsThe new product showed solid sales momentum.
• Giant Biogene GMVdown about 72% year over yearAffected by a high base and channel strategy shifting toward self-operated stores and lower-tier KOLs.
• Proya Group GMVdown about 1% year over yearThe decline narrowed, partly supported by more SKUs and bundle sales.
• Bloomage Biotechnology GMVdown about 68% year over yearThe group overall was weak, with most SKUs down in double digits.
• Botanee GMVdown about 22% year over yearCore SKU sales were relatively stable, and price points were also stable.
• Shanghai Jahwa GMVdown about 20% year over yearMainly affected by declines in ViVE-related products, while Taiji Water was relatively resilient.

Impact & implications

For investors, the first-day 618 data reinforces the divergence in China's cosmetics sector: Mao Geping stands out the most thanks to strong brand recognition, core products, and a premium makeup positioning; Proya's decline narrowed thanks to its ability to support multiple SKUs and bundle sales; while brands reliant on high bases, medical-aesthetic skincare, or channel restructuring still face pressure. Since top KOL livestreams are only an early-stage and single-channel sample, the key follow-up is whether full-cycle and full-platform GMV can sustain the improvement.

Risks

• Top KOL livestreams and Tmall alone cannot represent full brand performance; Tmall platform-wide and Douyin full-cycle data should also be considered.
• A shorter 618 promotion cycle and narrower discounts on some platforms may affect consumer conversion.
• Last year's high base makes year-over-year performance under pressure for some brands, and single-day data may amplify volatility.
• Industry competition, marketing spending, channel structure changes, and new product development success or failure remain the main uncertainties for China's cosmetics companies.
• Different companies' ratings and target prices are based on 2027E earnings, target multiples, and COE assumptions, so valuation conclusions may change if growth or margin expectations shift.

What to watch

• Full-cycle 618 GMV totals across Tmall, Taobao, JD.com, and Douyin.
• The sustainability of sales for Mao Geping's caviar cushion and new pre-makeup sunscreen primer lotion.
• Whether Proya's additional SKUs and bundle sales truly translate into brand growth rather than only short-term GMV improvement.
• Whether Giant Biogene's self-operated channel and lower-tier KOL strategy can offset the decline in top KOL livestreams.
• Whether Botanee can maintain core SKU sales and price discipline.
• Improvements in online execution for Shanghai Jahwa's ViVE, Herborist, and Dr.Yu.
• Whether platform subsidies and discount intensity increase in later stages of 618.