Goldman Sachs maintains Cemex Buy rating, focusing on 2Q26 guidance and potential for further cost reductions

Overview

Goldman Sachs updated its forecasts ahead of Cemex's 2Q26 results. Its core view is that overall earnings growth will continue to be driven by the Mexican market, while the U.S. business is expected to be broadly flat year over year due to weak residential demand and slower price growth. The report maintains Buy ratings on CX and CEMEXCPO.MX, with target prices of US$15 and P$27.50, respectively.

Core views

The report expects Cemex 2Q26 revenue to grow 9% year over year and operating EBITDA margin to expand by 120 basis points to 21.2%, driving 16% year-over-year growth in quarterly EBITDA. Mexico is expected to be the most important growth contributor, benefiting from approximately 5% year-over-year growth in both cement prices and volumes, stronger housing permits, and government housing and infrastructure spending. In the U.S., the cement price index declined approximately 1%, while housing starts fell to a post-pandemic low in May 2026. Although data center demand provides some support, Goldman Sachs expects U.S. EBITDA to be broadly flat year over year.

Analysis framework

The report updates Cemex's 2Q26 results outlook, 2026-2028 earnings forecasts, and target price using regional quarterly company forecasts, industry cement price and volume indicators, Mexican housing registrations and construction spending, U.S. cement production and PPI indicators, macroeconomic interest-rate and foreign-exchange assumptions, and peer valuations.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodstarget ev/ebitda

  Target EV/EBITDA valuation

  Goldman Sachs values the company using weighted 2026E and 2027E EBITDA and net debt, with a target EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 7x based on the stock's 20-year historical average.

• forecastsegment earnings model

  Regional earnings forecasts

  The report breaks down revenue and operating EBITDA by Mexico, U.S.A., EMEAA, South and Central America, and other regions to identify major growth contributions and sources of risk.

• macro_industrycement price and volume indicators

  Cement volume, pricing, and macro indicator tracking

  The report uses cement prices, production, housing permits, housing starts, construction spending, interest rates, and foreign-exchange indicators in Mexico and the U.S. to assess demand and margin trends.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CX.N

  Core covered security, U.S.-listed ADR

  Strengths

  Buy rating; US$15 target price; strong Mexican business; 2Q26 EBITDA expected to grow 16% year over year; 2026 EBITDA forecast above consensus.

  Weaknesses

  The U.S. business is pressured by weak residential demand and slower price growth, with 2Q26 EBITDA expected to be broadly flat year over year.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs' 2026 EBITDA forecast of US$3.65 billion is above the FactSet consensus estimate of US$3.57 billion.

  Risks

  MXN depreciation, weakening pricing power, weakness in Mexican and U.S. residential markets, and rising costs associated with European green initiatives.

• CEMEXCPO.MX

  The same company's Mexico-listed shares

  Strengths

  Buy rating; P$27.50 target price; implying approximately 26.7% upside.

  Weaknesses

  Similarly exposed to Cemex's overall operating and regional demand risks.

  Comparison

  The report covers both CX and CEMEXCPO.MX and provides separate 12-month target prices for each.

  Risks

  Foreign exchange, residential demand, cost inflation, and regional pricing pressure.

Key data

• CX 12-month target priceUS$15.00Versus the current price of US$12.37, implying approximately 21.3% upside.
• CEMEXCPO.MX 12-month target priceP$27.50Versus the current price of P$21.71, implying approximately 26.7% upside.
• 2Q26 EBITDA forecastUS$952 millionClose to the FactSet consensus estimate of US$948 million, with 16% year-over-year growth expected.
• 2026 EBITDA forecastUS$3.65 billionAbove the FactSet consensus estimate of US$3.57 billion, implying 18% growth, stronger than the existing high-single-digit guidance.
• 2Q26 revenue growth forecast+9% year over yearTotal quarterly revenue is expected to reach US$4.499 billion.
• 2Q26 operating EBITDA margin21.2%Expected to expand by 120 basis points year over year.
• Mexico 2Q26 operating EBITDAUS$431 millionExpected to grow 24% year over year and serve as the primary growth driver.
• U.S. 2Q26 operating EBITDAUS$277 millionExpected to decline approximately 1% year over year, essentially remaining flat.
• 2026E P/E10.1xBased on Goldman Sachs estimates.
• 2026E EV/EBITDA6.5x2027E is 5.9x and 2028E is 5.3x.

Impact & implications

If 2Q26 results confirm resilience in Mexican volumes and pricing, further cost reductions are implemented, and full-year guidance is raised, the case for upward revisions to Cemex's earnings and valuation will become clearer. Conversely, continued weakness in the U.S. residential market, energy cost inflation eroding margins, or weakening pricing power in Mexico could constrain earnings delivery and the upside potential to the target price.

Risks

• MXN depreciation could affect U.S.-dollar-denominated valuation and earnings translation.
• Weaker pricing power across business lines could compress margins.
• Weakness in the Mexican and U.S. residential markets could weigh on cement volumes.
• Higher costs associated with European green initiatives could affect earnings.
• Energy cost inflation above expectations could offset cost reductions and pricing improvements.

What to watch

• Whether 2Q26 results approach or exceed the US$952 million EBITDA forecast.
• Whether management updates full-year earnings guidance in 2Q.
• Whether Project Cutting Edge announces further cost-reduction measures.
• The actual impact of energy cost inflation on gross margin and EBITDA margin.
• Whether Mexican housing, infrastructure, and cement volume and pricing data can sustain approximately 5% year-over-year growth.
• The extent to which weakness in the U.S. residential market is offset by data center demand.