Bayer 2Q'26 Expected to be Resilient, FY'26 Guidance Reaffirmation Likely to Keep Consensus Stable

Overview

This is JPMorgan's forward-looking report on Bayer's 2026 second-quarter results. Bayer will report 2Q'26 on 2026-08-04. The core view is that quarterly operating performance is resilient and overall near market expectations, while reiterating full-year guidance is expected to reinforce the latest Vara Consensus, so consensus and share-price reactions after the results are expected to change little.

Core views

JPMorgan expects Bayer 2Q'26 group sales of €10,687m, broadly in line with BBG consensus of €10,721m; EBITDA (u/l) of €1,939m, roughly 1% below consensus of €1,956m; and Core EPS of €0.73, about 4% below consensus of €0.76. At full-year level, the report expects the company to reaffirm FY'26 guidance of sales growth of 0% to +3%, EBITDA (u/l) growth of -1% to +4%, and Core EPS of about €4.30 to €4.80 on a CER basis, while maintaining a reported-currency Core EPS range of €4.10 to €4.60 after FX impact.

Analysis framework

The report uses a top-down group performance forecast combined with segment decomposition, comparing JPMorgan forecasts against BBG Consensus and Vara Consensus, and separately analyzing differences in sales, EBITDA, and margin between Pharmaceuticals, Crop Science, and Consumer. Core assessment focuses include constant-exchange-rate growth, FX headwinds, product-level sales momentum, segment margins, and the positioning of full-year guidance relative to market consensus.

Methodology notes

• Earnings OutlookConsensus Comparison Analysis

  Deviation of JPMorgan forecasts versus BBG Consensus and Vara Consensus

  The report compares group sales, EBITDA, Core EPS, and segment data to assess whether results are likely to drive consensus revisions. The conclusion is that most metrics are near consensus, so incremental market impact is limited.

• Reporting BasisCER and FX Impact Decomposition

  Bridging constant-exchange-rate growth to reported-figure guidance ranges

  The report first analyzes FY'26 sales, EBITDA, and Core EPS guidance on a CER basis, then deducts expected FX headwinds to derive the reported-figure sales, EBITDA, and Core EPS ranges.

• Segment AnalysisBusiness Segment Forecasting

  Sales and EBITDA forecasts for Pharmaceuticals, Crop Science, and Consumer segments

  The report separately assesses pharmaceutical growth drivers, agrochemical volumes and pricing timing, and Consumer Health growth and margins to explain group-level and consensus differences.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BAYGn.DE

  Research coverage

  Strengths

  2Q'26 group performance is expected to be resilient; Pharmaceuticals margins are stronger than consensus; Nubeqa and Kerendia sales are expected to grow 54% and 63%, respectively, on a CER basis; Consumer segment sales and EBITDA are slightly above consensus.

  Weaknesses

  Core EPS forecast is about 4% below BBG consensus; Pharmaceuticals sales are slightly below consensus; Xarelto and Eylea continue to decline; FX is a headwind for sales, EBITDA, and Core EPS.

  Comparison

  Group sales and EBITDA are broadly in line with BBG Consensus, and FY'26 guidance ranges broadly match the latest Vara Consensus.

  Risks

  If the company does not reaffirm FY'26 guidance, if segment margins come in below expectations, if Pharma legacy-product erosion is faster than expected, or if Crop Science demand or pricing underperforms, consensus could be revised lower.

• BAYER.US

  Related security of same company

  Strengths

  Beneficiary of the same Bayer group-level operating fundamentals and FY'26 guidance validation.

  Weaknesses

  The report’s core coverage and price information are centered on BAYGn.DE/BAYN GR; independent trading, liquidity, or valuation details for BAYER.US are not expanded in the text.

  Comparison

  Shares the same issuer-level fundamentals as BAYGn.DE, but the report does not provide a separate valuation comparison for the U.S. listing.

  Risks

  In addition to group-level fundamental risks, it may also be affected by listing venue, liquidity, and currency factors.

Key data

• 2Q'26 Group sales forecast€10,687mBroadly in line with BBG Consensus of €10,721m.
• 2Q'26 EBITDA (u/l) forecast€1,939mAbout 1% below BBG Consensus of €1,956m.
• 2Q'26 Core EPS forecast€0.73About 4% below BBG Consensus of €0.76; the report notes that consensus may not yet fully reflect the new Core EPS reported methodology.
• FY'26 Reported-currency sales guidance outlook€44.5bn-€46.5bnBased on CER guidance of €45bn-€47bn with approximately €0.5bn FX headwind.
• FY'26 Reported-currency EBITDA (u/l) guidance outlook€9.4bn-€9.9bnBased on CER guidance of €9.6bn-€10.1bn with approximately €0.2bn FX headwind.
• FY'26 Reported-currency Core EPS guidance outlook€4.10-€4.60Approximately €4.30-€4.80 on a CER basis, unchanged after applying roughly €0.20 FX headwind.
• Pharmaceuticals 2Q'26 sales forecast€4,381mDown 1% on a CER basis, about 1% below BBG Consensus of €4,410m.
• Crop Science 2Q'26 sales forecast€4,777mUp 1% on a CER basis, broadly in line with BBG Consensus of €4,794m.
• Consumer 2Q'26 sales forecast€1,455mUp about 2% on a CER basis, about 1% above BBG Consensus of €1,436m.

Impact & implications

The report argues that if Bayer reports near-consensus 2Q'26 results as expected and reaffirms full-year guidance, the market’s Vara Consensus forecast for FY'26 is unlikely to be materially revised. Because the latest Vara Consensus is broadly in the middle of the company’s guidance range, the results themselves may lack a catalyst to trigger a major share-price repricing; the investment implication is more about validating full-year operating resilience and supporting the Overweight stance.

Risks

• If FY'26 sales, EBITDA, or Core EPS guidance is not reaffirmed as expected, it could prompt a Vara Consensus downgrade.
• The Pharmaceuticals segment faces erosion pressure on Xarelto and Eylea, with the report forecasting declines of 45% and 24%, respectively, on a CER basis.
• FX headwinds are expected to reduce reported-currency sales by about €0.5bn, EBITDA by about €0.2bn, and Core EPS by about €0.20.
• Crop Science corn and soy are expected to decline 6% and 1% on a CER basis; the timing of sales and demand recovery remains uncertain.
• J.P. Morgan disclosed potential conflicts of interest with Bayer or related parties, including market-making, client relationships, investment banking, and shareholding.

What to watch

• Publication of 2Q'26 results and investor call on 2026-08-04.
• Whether management reaffirms FY'26 sales, EBITDA (u/l), and Core EPS guidance.
• Changes in Vara Consensus after results, especially whether FY'26 Core EPS remains near €4.32.
• Whether growth from Nubeqa and Kerendia in Pharmaceuticals can offset declines in Xarelto and Eylea.
• In Crop Science, recovery in volumes/pricing for Glyphosate, Herbicides, and Cotton, and the impact of Corn and Soy sales timing.
• Whether Consumer can sustain about 2% CER sales growth and an EBITDA margin of 23.0%.