Unimicron 2Q26 revenue is in line with expectations, while Quanta revenue is above expectations but ratings diverge

Overview

This report tracks the 2Q26 revenue progress of Unimicron Technology Corp and Quanta Computer Inc through Taiwan monthly sales data. Unimicron's implied 2Q26 revenue is broadly in line with consensus expectations, with the core investment thesis centered on improving ABF substrate ASPs, rising AI GPU/ASIC-related share, and high utilization after capacity expansion. Quanta's 2Q26 revenue tracking is above consensus, but Bernstein believes margin pressure remains the key issue.

Core views

For Unimicron, Apr-May sales and June seasonality extrapolation indicate 2Q26 revenue of about NT$41-43B, with a midpoint of NT$42B, up about 13% QoQ and 30% YoY, in line with consensus; the company's ABF substrate capacity expansion, share with Nvidia high-end GPUs and ASIC customers, and recovering CPU demand together support subsequent margin recovery. For Quanta, Apr-May sales were strong, and the extrapolated 2Q26 revenue midpoint is about NT$1007B, 6% above consensus; however, a higher AI server mix, rising memory prices, and the continuation of the buy-sell model are expected to pressure gross margin, with 2026 gross margin forecast to fall from 7% in 2025 to 4.7%.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly sales tracking approach, combining disclosed Apr-May 2026 sales with historical June seasonality to extrapolate the 2Q26 revenue range and compare it with market consensus expectations; it also assesses the direction of margins by incorporating product mix, capacity expansion, customer share, memory prices, and changes in business model. For valuation, the report uses a P/E multiple approach to set target prices.

Methodology notes

• Revenue trackingMonthly sales plus seasonal extrapolation

  Use actual Apr-May sales plus historical June seasonality to estimate the 2Q26 revenue range.

  This method is used to determine whether quarterly revenue is in line with or above consensus expectations; Unimicron is estimated to be in line with expectations, while Quanta is estimated to be above expectations.

• Valuation methodsP/E multiple method

  Target price is derived by multiplying forecast future EPS by the target P/E multiple.

  Quanta's target price of NT$250 is based on 2027 EPS of NT$23.1 and 11X P/E; Unimicron's target price of NT$990 is based on average 2027-28 EPS of NT$30.8 and 32X P/E.

• Rating frameworkBernstein equity ratings

  Outperform, Market-Perform, and Underperform are based on relative performance versus the market index over the next 12 months.

  The report assigns Unimicron an Outperform and Quanta an Underperform, reflecting a differentiated view on the two companies' relative performance over the next 12 months.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Unimicron Technology Corp

  Covered company; positive view

  Strengths

  Improving ABF substrate ASPs, 40% YoY capacity increase by end-2026, high share in Nvidia high-end GPUs and ASICs such as Google TPU/AWS Trainium, and recovering CPU demand helping maintain high utilization.

  Weaknesses

  Margins are still in the recovery phase, and HDI yield and gross margin recovery still need to be validated.

  Comparison

  Compared with Quanta, Unimicron's revenue is only in line with expectations, but margin improvement and AI chip substrate share form a stronger investment case.

  Risks

  Aggressive capacity expansion by competitors may slow ABF market recovery; HDI yield and gross margin recovery may be slower than expected; macro and tariff pressures may affect the recovery in smartphones and PCs.

• Quanta Computer Inc

  Covered company; negative view

  Strengths

  2Q26 revenue tracking is above consensus, benefiting from improved general-purpose server sales, earlier PC shipments, and Taiwan ODM/OEM demand.

  Weaknesses

  A higher AI server mix and rising memory prices pressure gross margin, the buy-sell model is expected to remain dominant in 2026, and working capital pressure still needs to be managed.

  Comparison

  Compared with Unimicron, Quanta has stronger revenue but more obvious margin pressure, so the report assigns Underperform.

  Risks

  If hyperscaler AI server demand in 2026-27 is stronger than expected, if AI servers drag on gross margin less than expected, or if PC shipments—especially consumer PCs—are higher than expected, there could be upside risk to the target price.

Key data

• Unimicron Apr-May 2026 salesNT$28BUp 29% YoY in USD terms.
• Unimicron 2Q26 extrapolated sales rangeNT$41-43BIf June follows historical seasonality, this implies 10% to 15% QoQ growth.
• Unimicron 2Q26 extrapolated sales midpointNT$42BAbout 13% QoQ growth and 30% YoY growth, in line with consensus expectations.
• Unimicron May 2026 revenue+27% YoY，+1% MoMIn USD terms.
• Unimicron ABF capacity guidanceUp 40% YoY by end-2026Including the ramp-up of KF Plant 2 and Yangmei Plant 2.
• Unimicron Nvidia high-end GPU ABF shareAbout 35%The report believes this share helps support ABF business performance this year.
• Unimicron ASIC chip ABF shareAbove 50%Including Google TPU and AWS Trainium.
• Unimicron gross margin forecastAbout 30% in 2H2027, about 35% in 2H2028Recovering from the high-teens level in 1Q26.
• Quanta Apr-May 2026 salesNT$651BUp 106% YoY in USD terms.
• Quanta 2Q26 extrapolated sales rangeNT$952-1068BEquivalent to 18% to 32% QoQ growth.
• Quanta 2Q26 extrapolated sales midpointNT$1007BUp 24% QoQ and 6% above consensus expectations.
• Quanta gross margin forecast4.7% in 2026Below 7% in 2025, reflecting pressure from the AI server mix and memory prices.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that revenue momentum alone is not sufficient to determine rating direction. Unimicron's revenue is in line with expectations, but the recovery path for margins is clearer due to improved ABF substrate supply-demand dynamics, AI chip customer share, and capacity utilization; Quanta's revenue is above expectations, but gross margin pressure from higher memory prices and a rising AI server mix reduces the investment appeal of the revenue beat.

Risks

• Quanta's upside risks include stronger-than-expected hyperscaler AI server demand in 2026-27.
• Quanta's upside risks include a lower-than-expected drag from AI servers on gross margin.
• Quanta's upside risks include higher-than-expected PC shipments, especially consumer PCs.
• Unimicron's downside risks include aggressive ABF capacity expansion by competitors, slowing ABF market recovery.
• Unimicron's downside risks include slower-than-expected recovery in HDI yield and gross margin.
• Unimicron's downside risks include macro pressure and tariff issues delaying the recovery in smartphones and PCs, affecting utilization across multiple products.

What to watch

• Whether Unimicron's June 2026 sales align with historical seasonality, thereby validating the 2Q26 revenue range.
• Whether ABF substrate ASPs, capacity ramp-up, and utilization continue to support Unimicron's margin recovery.
• Whether order share related to Nvidia high-end GPUs, Google TPU, and AWS Trainium remains stable.
• Whether Quanta shifts projects such as GB300 and Vera Rubin to the consignment manufacturing model, and changes in the share of the buy-sell model.
• The actual impact of memory prices, AI server product mix, and earlier PC shipments on Quanta's gross margin.