China Real Estate Weekly Tracker: Primary Home Sales Weaken, Existing Home Sales Maintain Strong YoY Growth

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley's weekly database tracker for China real estate, focusing on primary home sales, existing home sales, sell-through rates, and price/brokerage sentiment indicators for the week ended May 24, 2026. The data show a clear divergence: primary home sales weakened year over year and remain negative year to date, while existing home transactions continued to post strong year-over-year growth.

Core views

The overall sector view is In-Line. On primary homes, weekly registrations across 50 cities fell 9% year over year, a sharp deterioration from the prior week's 5% year-over-year growth, with year-to-date sales down 15% year over year; by city tier, first-tier cities rose 11% year over year, second-tier cities fell 14%, and third-tier cities fell 10%. On existing homes, weekly registrations across 10 cities rose 45% year over year, slightly below the prior week's 49%, with year-to-date growth of 5% year over year; first-tier cities rose 63% year over year and second-tier cities rose 36% year over year.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency weekly database tracking framework to monitor primary home registrations, existing home registrations, new project sell-through rates, existing home listing price tracking indices, and real estate brokerage indices, with performance broken out by first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry trackingWeekly real estate database tracker

  Use weekly registrations, sell-through rates, listing price indices, and brokerage indices to judge changes in real estate sales and market heat.

  Year-over-year movements in primary and existing home transactions reflect demand strength, sell-through rates reflect new project absorption capacity, and listing price and brokerage indices provide supplementary signals on price expectations and market activity.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China real estate sector

  Core coverage of the report

  Strengths

  Existing home transactions continue to post strong year-over-year growth, and first-tier city existing home sales are stronger than those in second-tier cities.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly primary home sales are down year over year, year-to-date cumulative sales remain negative, and primary home performance in second- and third-tier cities is weak.

  Comparison

  Existing home sales are clearly stronger than primary home sales; first-tier cities are generally outperforming second- and third-tier cities.

  Risks

  Persistently weak primary home demand, softer price expectations, policy support falling short of expectations, and pressure on developers' financing and deliveries.

Key data

• Weekly primary home registrations in 50 citiesYoY -9%The previous week was YoY +5%; for the week ended May 24.
• Primary home sales year to date in 50 citiesYoY -15%Indicates cumulative primary home sales are still in negative growth territory.
• Primary home sales in first-tier citiesYoY +11%The previous week was YoY +18%.
• Primary home sales in second-tier citiesYoY -14%The previous week was YoY +4%.
• Primary home sales in third-tier citiesYoY -10%The previous week was YoY -2%.
• Weekly existing home registrations in 10 citiesYoY +45%The previous week was YoY +49%; year to date YoY +5%.
• Existing home sales in first-tier citiesYoY +63%The previous week was YoY +65%.
• Existing home sales in second-tier citiesYoY +36%The previous week was YoY +40%.
• Overall sell-through rate66%The sell-through rate in first-tier cities was 66%; no new projects were launched in second-tier cities this week.
• China Real Estate six-city existing home listing price tracking index18.2%The previous week was 18.5%.
• First-tier city real estate brokerage index53.5The previous week was 55.6.

Impact & implications

The data are moderately neutral but clearly diverging for the China real estate sector: strong year-over-year growth in existing home transactions shows that the resale market remains supported, but the return of primary home sales to negative growth, together with weaker performance in lower-tier cities than in first-tier cities, suggests that new-home demand and developers' sales recovery remain fragile. The weakening in price and brokerage indices also points to a possible marginal cooling in market sentiment.

Risks

• Primary home sales have turned negative again year over year, and cumulative sales remain in negative growth territory.
• Primary home sales in second- and third-tier cities are weaker than in first-tier cities, and regional divergence may continue.
• The existing home listing price tracking index and the first-tier city brokerage index have both eased from the prior week, creating a risk of marginal cooling in market sentiment.
• The report discloses that Morgan Stanley has or seeks investment banking relationships with multiple covered companies, so investors should consider potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• Whether primary home registrations across 50 cities can return to positive year-over-year growth.
• Whether the strong growth in existing home transactions across 10 cities can continue, and whether year-to-date growth keeps improving.
• Sell-through rates in first-tier cities and the pace of new project launches in second-tier cities.
• Whether the China Real Estate six-city existing home listing price tracking index and the brokerage index continue to decline.
• The pass-through effect of policy easing, financing support, and developers' sales collections on sector fundamentals.