Vestas' US onshore wind orders are recovering, with offshore wind turnaround and rising European power demand as key supports

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' renewable energy barometer, focused on wind equipment companies including Vestas, Nordex, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova, tracking US onshore wind orders, European offshore wind project execution, incremental power demand from data centers, raw material and freight costs, and 2Q/FY2026 earnings outlook. The report's core tone is positive: US onshore wind orders continue to recover as the tax credit pathway becomes clearer, while European power demand is being driven by AI, data centers, and electrification, and renewables maintain an advantage in incremental power supply thanks to lower LCOE and faster deployment cycles.

Core views

First, the recovery in US onshore wind is still continuing, with Vestas and Nordex showing better order performance than in the prior downturn. Second, although European offshore wind is still in a ramp-up phase, offshore orders and backlogs at Vestas and Siemens Energy de-risk growth over the next few years; at the same time, GE Vernova's reduced willingness to pursue new offshore wind orders may benefit Vestas, Siemens Energy, and Chinese manufacturers. Third, the sharp increase in European data center grid connection applications suggests AI infrastructure buildout may be entering a larger-scale phase, reinforcing long-term demand for utilities, transmission and distribution, and renewables. Fourth, execution and grid connection delays in awarded German offshore wind projects are a key uncertainty that could affect the actual pace of achieving Germany's 2030 target. Fifth, despite some disturbance from raw materials and freight, the 2Q2026 earnings season is still expected to show year-on-year margin improvement for Vestas and Nordex.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of order tracking, regional policy and auction calendars, project backlog analysis, LCOE comparisons, PPA/power price observation, cost input monitoring, and company earnings forecasts. In the short term it focuses on 2Q2026 orders and results, in the medium term on FY2026-FY2028 margins and order execution, and in the long term on the pull from European data centers, electrification, and energy security policies on wind and grid investment.

Methodology notes

• Industry demandOrder and backlog tracking

  Use quarterly new orders, trailing four-quarter orders, and offshore/onshore backlog to assess future revenue and capacity utilization for wind equipment makers.

  The report compares onshore and offshore wind orders for Vestas, Nordex, Siemens Energy, and GE Vernova, and notes that Vestas and Siemens Energy have combined offshore backlog of about €29bn.

• Cost curveLCOE comparison

  Compare levelized cost of electricity across generation technologies to assess competitiveness under incremental power demand.

  The report argues that onshore wind and solar will remain the lowest-LCOE technologies in 2027-2030E, and that even after considering balancing, battery, and grid reinforcement costs, their economics remain attractive.

• Policy and project executionAuction and grid connection pipeline analysis

  Use government auctions, awarded capacity, connection timing, and developer lease relinquishment risk to assess offshore wind delivery pace.

  Around 15GW of awarded German offshore wind capacity has not yet placed turbine orders, and negotiations involving TotalEnergies and JERA Nex bp are key variables affecting achievement of Germany's target.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Vestas

  A core company in the report, benefiting from recovery in US onshore wind orders and improved offshore wind execution.

  Strengths

  Announced 2Q2026 onshore wind orders of 2.8GW; 2026 year-to-date US orders of 2.1GW; more than 10GW of offshore wind orders since 2024; Goldman Sachs assigns a Buy rating and Dkr236 target price.

  Weaknesses

  Its business model remains more skewed to onshore wind and was previously affected by US policy uncertainty, with order growth slower than Nordex.

  Comparison

  Compared with Siemens Energy and GE Vernova, Vestas has been more proactive in securing recent offshore wind orders; compared with Nordex, its US order volume is larger.

  Risks

  US policy, delays in German offshore wind projects, offshore wind execution, and raw material and freight costs.

• Nordex

  One of the main beneficiaries of recovery and order growth in US onshore wind.

  Strengths

  Announced 2Q2026 onshore wind orders of 1.6GW; three firm US orders totaling 0.8GW; trailing orders up about 56% versus FY2022.

  Weaknesses

  2Q orders may be below last year's total-order base, and revenue and EBITDA forecasts are below consensus.

  Comparison

  Order growth momentum is stronger than Vestas, but its scale and offshore wind exposure are below Vestas and Siemens Energy.

  Risks

  Uncertainty around US Section 232 and tax credit policy, timing of order announcements, and margin delivery.

• Siemens Energy / Siemens Gamesa

  The report maintains a Buy rating, focusing on clues from 3QFY2026 orders, profits, and FY2030 targets.

  Strengths

  Siemens Gamesa has booked more than 5GW of offshore wind orders since 2024; combined offshore backlog with Vestas is about €29bn; grid and gas services businesses have strong profitability.

  Weaknesses

  Its offshore wind strategy is more focused on executing existing backlog and ramping factories rather than aggressive expansion.

  Comparison

  Compared with Vestas, its offshore wind business places more emphasis on value-first and order execution; compared with GE Vernova, it remains an important supplier in the non-China offshore wind market.

  Risks

  Pace of Siemens Gamesa turnaround, offshore wind factory ramp-up, order execution, and new FY2030 targets.

• GE Vernova

  A reference company for offshore wind supply contraction and changes in the competitive landscape.

  Strengths

  Has about $3bn of offshore wind backlog and will focus on delivering existing projects over the next two years.

  Weaknesses

  Has not recently announced new offshore wind orders, and the company has said it will not pursue new offshore wind orders until supply chain and interest rate conditions improve.

  Comparison

  Its pullback from new orders may make Vestas, Siemens Energy, and Chinese wind turbine manufacturers potential beneficiaries.

  Risks

  Offshore wind market conditions, supply chain pressure, rising interest rates, and project execution.

Key data

• Announced Vestas 2Q2026 onshore wind orders2.8GWAbove announced 2Q2025 orders of 1.1GW, and also above total 2Q2025 orders of 2.0GW.
• Announced Nordex 2Q2026 onshore wind orders1.6GWBelow total 2Q2025 orders of 2.3GW, though the report notes some order announcements may occur after quarter-end.
• Vestas US orders year-to-date 20262.1GWOf this, 1.5GW came from 2Q2026, reflecting recovering US onshore wind demand.
• Nordex firm US orders0.8GWThree firm orders, supporting its goal of regaining US market share.
• European data center grid connection applicationsabout 480-500GWAbout 1.5x current European electricity demand, sharply up from about 290GW six months ago and 170GW in January 2025.
• Forecast European data center IT capacity in 203565-80GWBull-case around 80GW, with data centers potentially contributing about 25% of total electricity demand by then.
• Awarded but uncontracted German offshore wind capacityabout 15GWAbout 7.5GW for TotalEnergies and about 4GW for JERA Nex bp, representing major uncertainties in executing Germany's offshore wind target.
• Goldman Sachs forecast for Vestas 2Q2026Revenue €4,368mn; EBIT before special items €214mn; EBIT margin 4.9%Revenue is about 2% below consensus, but EBIT is about 8% above consensus.
• Goldman Sachs forecast for Nordex 2Q2026Revenue €1,998mn; EBITDA €177mn; EBITDA margin 8.9%Margin improves about 309bps year-on-year, but remains below consensus.
• Vestas FY2026 guidanceRevenue €20-22bn; EBIT margin 6%-8%The report views 2Q earnings improvement as a factor supporting upward revisions to FY2027.
• Offshore wind backlogVestas and Siemens Energy combined about €29bnGoldman Sachs estimate as of 1Q2026.
• European steel plate prices2Q2026 QoQ +5%, YoY +23%, average about €821/tStill about 31% below the 2022 average, but about 53% above the 2019 average.

Impact & implications

The investment implication favors structural beneficiaries in the wind equipment and grid value chains. In the short term, margin improvement and order commentary during the 2Q2026 earnings season could be catalysts for valuation recovery in Vestas and Nordex; in the medium term, European data centers, electrification, and energy security policies may support capex in renewables, grids, and utilities; in the long term, if GE Vernova reduces new offshore wind orders and Siemens Gamesa focuses on executing existing orders, Vestas may benefit in share and pricing in non-China offshore wind markets. However, German project lease relinquishments, US policy uncertainty, rebounds in raw materials/freight, and the speculative nature of data center pipelines still need close monitoring.

Risks

• US Section 232, tax credit step-downs, and energy policy uncertainty may affect the pace of onshore wind orders.
• If German offshore wind projects are delayed due to grid connection delays or developer lease relinquishments, Germany's 30GW target and manufacturers' order conversion will be affected.
• European data center grid connection applications may include speculative projects, and actual electricity demand realization may fall short of pipeline scale.
• Offshore wind supply chain tightness, rising interest rates, and project execution risks may drag on margins and cash flow.
• Rebounds in steel, freight, and other input costs may compress turbine manufacturers' profits.
• Quarterly order announcements are subject to timing noise, so announced orders in a single quarter may not fully represent actual order intake.

What to watch

• Nordex 2Q26 earnings on July 29, 2026.
• Siemens Energy 3Q26 earnings and FY2030 target clues on August 5, 2026.
• Vestas 2Q26 earnings on August 12, 2026, commentary on offshore wind turnaround, and potential FY2027 upgrades.
• Pricing, rules, and award results after the UK's Allocation Round 8 opens in July 2026.
• Negotiation progress between TotalEnergies, JERA Nex bp, and the German government on offshore wind leases and grid connection delays.
• Whether European data center grid connection applications convert into FID, projects under construction, and actual electricity load.
• Changes in US PPA prices, power prices such as PJM, and renewable project returns.
• Trends in European steel, container freight, and ocean/air shipping rates.