China semiconductor equipment imports cooled in May, while front-end equipment and year-to-date data remained under pressure

Overview

This report tracks China sales trends for global semiconductor equipment companies through China customs semiconductor equipment import data. China accounted for 33.5% of global WFE in 2025 and is an important region for global semiconductor equipment demand. In May 2026, China's semiconductor equipment imports totaled $3.2bn, down 6% year over year and 16% month over month; on a 3-month moving average basis, imports were down 3% year over year and up 10% month over month. Year-to-date 2026 imports were down 11% year over year, consistent with most semiconductor equipment suppliers' expectation of normalization in China sales.

Core views

The core view is that China's semiconductor equipment import demand is weakening overall, with front-end equipment and year-to-date data particularly under pressure. Front-end equipment imports were $2.2bn in May, down 9% year over year and 20% month over month, with the main drags coming from other front-end equipment, etch, and lithography. At the same time, deposition, process control, ion implantation, and thermal processing still maintained year-over-year growth in May, showing that demand for sub-segments is not declining across the board. Performance in back-end and related categories diverged, with flat panel display, wire bonding, and test equipment strong year over year, while assembly and packaging, wafer manufacturing, and spare parts still declined year over year.

Analysis framework

The report is based on monthly China customs import value, volume, and ASP, breaking down year-over-year, month-over-month, quarterly, and year-to-date changes by equipment category, and comparing total front-end equipment imports with China equipment sales disclosed by major semiconductor equipment suppliers to assess the signaling value of import data for company sales trends.

Methodology notes

• Data trackingChina semiconductor equipment customs import tracking

  Monthly tracking of import value, volume, and ASP

  Using monthly China customs import data, the report breaks down categories such as lithography, deposition, etch, thermal processing, ion implantation, process control, wafer manufacturing, flat panel display, assembly and packaging, spare parts, and testing, and observes year-over-year, month-over-month, and year-to-date changes.

• Trend smoothing3MMA

  3-month moving average

  A 3-month moving average is used to reduce single-month volatility; the report shows that May import value 3MMA declined 3% year over year and increased 10% month over month.

• Cross-validationComparison of import data with equipment suppliers' China sales

  Using customs import data to indicate suppliers' China sales trends

  China equipment sales disclosed by the five major equipment companies—Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, ASML, and KLA—are approximately equal to 75% of total customs front-end equipment imports on an annual basis, and usually range from 58% to 85% on a quarterly basis; based on this, the report believes monthly import data has reference value for suppliers' China sales trends.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global semiconductor equipment suppliers

  China semiconductor equipment import data can serve as a leading or coincident indicator of China sales trends.

  Strengths

  China accounted for 33.5% of global WFE in 2025, representing large demand scale; China sales disclosed by the five major equipment makers have high annual and quarterly coverage relative to front-end import data.

  Weaknesses

  In May 2026, both total imports and front-end equipment imports declined year over year and month over month, and year-to-date growth was also negative.

  Comparison

  The combined annual China equipment sales of the five major equipment makers are about 75% of total front-end imports over the same period; the quarterly range is 58% to 85%, and it was 79% in 1Q26.

  Risks

  There are timing differences, definition differences, and product mix differences between customs import values and company recognized revenue, and single-month data can be highly volatile.

• ASML and the Dutch lithography supply chain

  Dutch lithography import data is highly correlated with ASML's China equipment sales.

  Strengths

  Since January 2015, Dutch customs lithography import data has had a 95% correlation with ASML's disclosed China equipment sales; in May 2026, Dutch lithography machines accounted for 93% of all lithography imports.

  Weaknesses

  Total lithography imports fell 2% year over year in May, and year-to-date lithography imports fell 24% year over year.

  Comparison

  Lithography imports rose 109% month over month in May, but this rebound came after a weak base in April when imports fell 60% year over year.

  Risks

  Export controls, geopolitical policy, and delivery timing for advanced lithography equipment may cause temporary deviations between import data and real demand.

• Front-end equipment

  Front-end equipment is the core category of China's semiconductor equipment imports and an important measure for assessing WFE demand.

  Strengths

  Deposition, process control, ion implantation, and thermal processing still posted year-over-year growth in May, indicating resilience in demand for some process steps.

  Weaknesses

  Front-end equipment import value fell 9% year over year and 20% month over month in May, and was down 13% year over year year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Deposition's +12% year-over-year growth in May was relatively stronger than etch at -33% and lithography at -2%.

  Risks

  If Chinese wafer fab capacity expansion slows or equipment procurement continues to normalize, front-end equipment imports may remain under pressure.

• Back-end and related equipment

  Categories such as assembly and packaging, testing, wire bonding, and die attach and bonding reflect changes in packaging/testing and back-end capex.

  Strengths

  Wire bonding was +67% YoY in May, test equipment was +50% YoY, and die attach and bonding was +6% YoY, with some back-end categories rebounding sharply.

  Weaknesses

  Assembly and packaging overall fell 10% YoY in May and 15% YoY year-to-date; test equipment was down 14% YoY year-to-date.

  Comparison

  Flat panel display manufacturing equipment was +63% YoY in May, significantly stronger than wafer manufacturing equipment at -31% YoY.

  Risks

  Back-end equipment is cyclical, and a strong single-month rebound does not necessarily indicate a full-cycle reversal.

Key data

• Total China semiconductor equipment imports$3.2bn in May 2026, -6% YoY, -16% MoMBelow the 3-month average of $3.5bn from February to April 2026, and also below the prior 12-month average of $4.5bn.
• Year-to-date 2026 import trend-11% YoYThe report believes this reflects normalization in China semiconductor equipment sales.
• Front-end equipment imports$2.2bn in May 2026, -9% YoY, -20% MoMYear-to-date reached $12.1bn, down 13% YoY.
• Lithography equipment$297mm in May 2026, -2% YoY, +109% MoMYear-to-date was $2.1bn, down 24% YoY; in May, Dutch lithography machines accounted for 93% of all lithography imports.
• Etch equipment$382mm in May 2026, -33% YoY, -25% MoMYear-to-date was $2.4bn, down 18% YoY.
• Deposition equipment$708mm in May 2026, +12% YoY, -18% MoMYear-to-date was $3.3bn, up 3% YoY.
• Process control$314mm in May 2026, +23% YoY, -18% MoMYear-to-date was $1.4bn, down 15% YoY.
• Ion implantation$107mm in May 2026, +21% YoY, -43% MoMYear-to-date was $562mm, down 2% YoY.
• Thermal processing$132mm in May 2026, +1% YoY, -13% MoMYear-to-date was $675mm, up 2% YoY.
• Assembly and packaging$343mm in May 2026, -10% YoY, +12% MoMYear-to-date was $1.5bn, down 15% YoY; within this, wire bonding was +67% YoY and +88% MoM in May.
• Flat panel display manufacturing equipment$221mm in May 2026, +63% YoY, +14% MoMYear-to-date was $1.1bn, up 18% YoY.
• Test equipment$36mm in May 2026, +50% YoY, -38% MoMYear-to-date was $169mm, down 14% YoY.

Impact & implications

For global semiconductor equipment suppliers, China remains an important source of demand, but the May and year-to-date data indicate that overall import demand is declining, especially as the year-over-year decline in front-end equipment may pressure expectations for China-related revenue growth. Since China sales disclosed by major equipment suppliers have a relatively high correspondence with customs front-end import data, this data has reference value for the China sales trends of companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, ASML, and KLA. At the sub-segment level, lithography, etch, and other front-end equipment are weak, while year-over-year growth in deposition, process control, ion implantation, flat panel display, and test equipment shows that structural demand still exists.

Risks

• Normalization in China semiconductor equipment sales may continue to pressure revenue growth for global equipment suppliers in China.
• Single-month customs import data can be highly volatile and may be affected by shipment timing, recognition timing, ASP, and product mix.
• Export controls and geopolitical changes may affect the import pace of key equipment such as lithography, etch, and deposition.
• There are statistical definition differences and timing differences between customs import values and company-disclosed sales, so they cannot be directly equated with revenue recognition.
• Some charts and classifications depend on import category definitions; if category definitions change, the comparability of historical year-over-year and month-over-month data may decline.

What to watch

• Whether China's total semiconductor equipment imports in the coming months continue to stay below the 12-month average of $4.5bn.
• Whether the year-to-date year-over-year decline in front-end equipment widens, especially in lithography, etch, and other front-end equipment.
• Whether the year-over-year growth in deposition, process control, ion implantation, and thermal processing can continue.
• Whether the synchronization between Dutch lithography imports and ASML's disclosed China sales is maintained.
• The China sales mix and order trends disclosed by the five major semiconductor equipment suppliers going forward.
• Whether the rebound in wire bonding, die attach and bonding, and test equipment among back-end equipment categories is sustainable.