China's Long March 10B recovery advances long-term competition, but SpaceX remains in the lead

Overview

This report centers on China's first successful recovery of a Long March 10B first-stage booster and SpaceX's upcoming 13th Starship launch. Bernstein views China as SpaceX's most important long-term competitor, but emphasizes that China has so far only taken the key step of first-stage booster landing and has not yet demonstrated reflight capability, nor matched SpaceX's launch cadence, manufacturing system, and depth of reusability in the Falcon 9 and Starship programs.

Core views

The core views are: first, China's space program is pushing more aggressively on lunar landings, a lunar research station, and large low-Earth-orbit satellite constellations, increasing the long-term competitive threat; second, SpaceX still has no truly comparable competitor in the short term, as Falcon 9 has already established records for high-frequency launch and reuse, and if Starship achieves full reusability, it will widen the lead further; third, new U.S.-China competition around lunar landings and space infrastructure may strengthen U.S. government support for SpaceX and related companies; fourth, Starship's 13th launch is mainly an iterative validation of the 12th launch, including engine startup, relight reliability, Raptor issue fixes, thermal protection testing, and deployment of 20 V3 Starlink satellites.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of event-driven analysis and competitive landscape comparison, evaluating the Long March 10B recovery event within the framework of reusable rocket technology, launch frequency, satellite constellation deployment, lunar plans, and government support, and combines this with SpaceX financial forecasts and valuation methodology to assess the investment implications.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSum-of-the-parts and forward EV/EBITDA

  A 2030 sum-of-the-parts valuation is based on 2031 EBITDA and then discounted back to mid-2027 to derive the 12-month target price.

  The report says it uses the longer-term 2031 EBITDA because a core part of SpaceX's value includes orbital data centers; using only 2028 EBITDA would more heavily reflect launches, ground computing, and near-term Starlink, and would fail to capture the value of that business.

• Competitive analysisReusable rocket capability comparison

  Compares first-stage reuse, full reuse, launch frequency, payload, mass-production capability, and mission objectives.

  The report compares Long March 10, Falcon 9, Starship, New Glenn, Neutron, and others, emphasizing that SpaceX's key advantage is not just landing, but also reflight, mass production, and the Starship path to full reusability.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SPCX.US)

  Core covered asset

  Strengths

  Falcon 9 already has years of booster reflight experience; completed 165 launches last year; Starship is planned to achieve full reusability of both first and second stages; Starlink and future orbital data centers form long-term sources of value.

  Weaknesses

  Starship full reusability has not yet been fully proven, and second-stage reuse is still in testing; valuation is highly sensitive to future launch capability and execution of new businesses.

  Comparison

  Compared with Long March 10, New Glenn, and Neutron, SpaceX leads in reflight record, launch cadence, and the goal of full reusability.

  Risks

  Starship launch accidents, regulatory restrictions, semiconductor and supply-chain constraints, weaker-than-expected commercialization of orbital data centers, and lower-than-expected computing demand.

• China Long March 10B / Long March 10

  Long-term competitor

  Strengths

  Has successfully completed Long March 10B first-stage booster recovery; China has long-term goals and resource commitment; plans for lunar landing, lunar research stations, and large LEO constellations are clear.

  Weaknesses

  Has not yet demonstrated booster reflight; currently the focus is mainly first-stage reuse, still requiring a newly built second stage for each mission; the mass-production system needed for high-frequency launches remains to be proven.

  Comparison

  The report believes China is still far from SpaceX, but has already become the most serious long-term competitive threat.

  Risks

  If China continues to narrow the technology gap, it may compress SpaceX's strategic advantage in launch and satellite infrastructure over the long term.

• Boeing Co

  U.S. space-race-related participant

  Strengths

  Participates in the U.S. aerospace and defense ecosystem and may benefit from government support.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not treat it as a core positive asset in this piece; Boeing's valuation and risks are separately disclosed elsewhere.

  Comparison

  Compared with SpaceX, Boeing appears more as a participant in U.S. space programs rather than a primary source of competitive advantage in this report.

  Risks

  Extended strikes, worsening supply chains, execution challenges in commercial and defense businesses, and timing risks around 777X and 737MAX-7/10 certification.

Key data

• RatingOutperformBernstein's stock rating on SpaceX.
• Target price239.00 USDThe SpaceX target price given in the report.
• Closing price145.30 USDSPCX closing price as of July 10, 2026.
• Potential upside64%Upside from the target price relative to the closing price.
• Falcon 9 launches last year165 launchesUsed in the report to illustrate SpaceX's high launch frequency and production capability.
• China ITU LEO satellite filing scalemore than 200,000 satellitesThe report believes China may also be locking in spectrum resources.
• SpaceX long-term LEO satellite targetat least 1,000,000 satellitesSpaceX's stated long-term scale for LEO satellite operations.
• Starship 2031 launch forecastabout 3,500 launchesBernstein forecast; the company itself appears to project more than 9,000 launches.
• Long March 10 launch challenge by 2031more than 100 launches may be challengingThe report's judgment on the pace at which China can increase launch volume based on historical experience.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is positive. China's successful Long March 10B recovery shows rising long-term competitive pressure, but it also strengthens the space-race narrative, which may increase U.S. government strategic support for SpaceX. In the short term, SpaceX still holds leading advantages in reuse experience, the Starship full-reusability path, Starlink satellite deployment, and potential orbital data center valuation, so the report maintains a positive rating.

Risks

• Whether Starship can significantly increase launch capability depends on whether full reusability can be achieved.
• SpaceX must successfully operate orbital data centers to support the report's long-term valuation assumptions.
• Semiconductor supply and other supply-chain issues may constrain business expansion.
• Launch accidents or regulatory restrictions may affect launch cadence and market expectations.
• If computing demand is lower than market expectations, the value related to orbital data centers may come under pressure.
• China's long-term resource commitment and technology iteration constitute a real competitive threat.

What to watch

• Whether Starship's 13th launch can validate post-12th-launch improvements in engine startup, relight reliability, and thermal protection.
• Whether Starship's 15th launch can demonstrate second-stage reuse, which the report expects in the fall of that year.
• Whether China's subsequent Long March 10B launches and recoveries later this year continue to succeed, and when reflight will be proven.
• The actual deployment pace of China's large LEO communications satellite constellation following its ITU spectrum filings.
• Whether the U.S. Artemis lunar program and China's 2030 lunar landing target further strengthen government support for SpaceX.
• SpaceX launch volume, Starlink satellite deployment, and commercialization progress of orbital data centers.