Xunlong Sci-Tech: Global caviar leader benefiting from overseas expansion and recovery in domestic demand

Overview

This report is a Goldman Sachs The-Next-Gen call summary that records the key points from Xunlong Sci-Tech management's discussion on July 16, 2026. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Hangzhou, the company is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with operations covering the full sturgeon lifecycle including breeding, long-term farming, processing, exports, and brand operations. Management said caviar products contribute more than 90% of revenue, of which about 80% comes from exports and 20% from the domestic market.

Core views

The core view is that Xunlong Sci-Tech is the global scale leader in caviar, and the industry has continued to achieve 10%~15% annualized output growth after shifting from wild sturgeon to sustainable aquaculture; the company's 2026 growth is jointly driven by resilient overseas markets, better-than-expected demand from Japan and South Korea, and the gradual recovery of domestic premium consumption. Management also emphasized that the company will strengthen its long-term competitiveness by increasing the share of the Kaluga Queen brand, expanding domestic B2C stores, developing proprietary-brand sales in emerging markets, and exploring overseas farming bases.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on information from the management call, organizing qualitative insights and key operating data around industry growth, the 2026 operating outlook, brand and channel strategy, barriers to entry, tariff risks, and cost/FX pressures. The appendix also introduces Goldman Sachs' general research frameworks such as Factor Profile, M&A Rank, and Quantum, but the main text does not provide a formal rating, target price, or valuation model for Xunlong Sci-Tech.

Methodology notes

• Company researchManagement call summary

  Extract operating trends, growth drivers, and risk factors through discussions with management.

  The main information in this report comes from statements by Xunlong Sci-Tech management in the The-Next-Gen Call Series, focusing on the industry, revenue and profit guidance, brand strategy, supply barriers, and risks.

• Goldman Sachs research frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock characteristics across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite dimensions.

  The appendix explains that this framework uses percentile calculations based on metrics such as forecast sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA to provide investment context.

• Goldman Sachs research frameworkM&A Rank

  Measure the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target on a scale of 1 to 3.

  The appendix explains that M&A Rank 1 represents high probability, 2 represents medium probability, and 3 represents low probability; however, the main text of this report does not disclose Xunlong Sci-Tech's specific M&A Rank.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hangzhou Qiandaohu Xunlong Sci-Tech Co. / 6715.HK

  Core subject of the report; a Hong Kong-listed global caviar and sturgeon aquaculture company.

  Strengths

  Leading global output and processing scale; 36% global share in 2025 according to management; long-cycle sturgeon inventory provides visible supply; roe yield and survival rates above the industry; dual drivers from resilient overseas demand and domestic recovery.

  Weaknesses

  Revenue is highly dependent on the caviar category; export mix is high, exposing the company to tariffs, logistics, and FX; domestic premium consumption is still in the early stage of recovery.

  Comparison

  Management said the company's output is nearly 4 times that of the global No. 2 player, with roe yield of 17%~18% above the industry 10%~12% and annual survival rate of 97%+ above the industry 50%~70%.

  Risks

  Changes in US tariff policy, RMB appreciation, fluctuations in logistics costs, weaker-than-expected recovery in domestic premium consumption, and slower growth in overseas markets.

• Kaluga Queen

  Xunlong Sci-Tech's proprietary brand and the core vehicle for increasing brand mix and developing domestic B2C.

  Strengths

  Already contributes about 35% of revenue; can strengthen consumer reach through high-end boutiques, pop-up/concept stores, and caviar-plus products.

  Weaknesses

  Most overseas mature markets still mainly operate under OEM and intermediary models, and the share of direct-to-consumer branded sales still needs to increase.

  Comparison

  Compared with OEM large standardized products, the proprietary brand places more emphasis on direct channel connection and brand premium in domestic and emerging markets.

  Risks

  Store expansion execution, conversion of younger consumers, domestic premium consumption conditions, and brand-building costs.

Key data

• 2026 revenue guidanceRmb900mnManagement guidance, up 15% year over year.
• 2026 adjusted net profit guidanceRmb460mnManagement guidance, up 15% year over year.
• Long-term gross margin65%~70%Management expects it to remain stable over the long term.
• Long-term net margin45%~50%Management expects it to remain stable over the long term.
• Caviar revenue contribution90%+Management said caviar products contribute the vast majority of total revenue.
• Export/domestic revenue mix约80%/20%According to management.
• 2025 global market share36%Management said the company is the world's largest producer and processor, with output nearly 4 times that of the second-largest player.
• Global caviar output growth10%~15% yoyManagement said it has grown steadily over the past 5 years.
• Kaluga Queen revenue contribution约35%The company plans to continue increasing the share of its proprietary brand.
• Revenue contribution from mature export markets in Europe/the US约60%Mainly sales of large standardized products to intermediaries, with growth of about 20% yoy in recent years.
• Sturgeon inventory15k+吨Management said more than 50% of this consists of mature fish.
• Target annual output growth15%Management said this is the target annual output growth for the next 3~5 years.
• Company roe yield17%~18%Above the industry average of 10%~12%.
• Annual survival rate97%+Above the industry average of 50%~70%.
• US tariff on Chinese caviar当前55%，峰值185%Management said it is currently fully borne by US importers.
• Feed cost as a share of farming cost50%Management said feed cost is amortized over the 7~15 year lifecycle.
• Potential overseas price increase约10%Management said it has discussed this with overseas clients to offset the impact of RMB appreciation.
• Domestic store GMV每月约Rmb200k至Rmb400k+Depends on store size and involves caviar-plus products such as caviar ice cream and chocolate.
• Domestic store plan3年内50家 specialty storesIncluding large boutiques in high-end malls and small pop-up/concept stores.

Impact & implications

The implication for investment judgment is that Xunlong Sci-Tech's supply cycle, mature fish inventory, and technical efficiency form a strong moat, while overseas markets provide current growth resilience and continued recovery in the domestic market, together with a higher branded sales mix, could bring higher margins and brand premium. However, the report is labeled NC and does not provide a target price, so the information is more suitable for business tracking and industry sentiment assessment rather than a complete valuation conclusion.

Risks

• The current US tariff on Chinese caviar is 55%, and policy volatility could affect end demand and importers' ability to absorb the cost.
• RMB appreciation may compress translated earnings from USD-denominated overseas sales, and the company is discussing a potential overseas price increase of about 10%.
• Changes in logistics costs and exchange rates may cause short-term volatility.
• Domestic sales were weakened by anti-corruption measures in 2H25, and the pace of recovery in 2H26 still needs to be observed.
• Caviar business accounts for 90%+ of revenue, implying relatively high concentration in a single category.
• The 7~15 year sturgeon maturation cycle creates barriers, but also means supply adjustment cycles are long.

What to watch

• Whether the 2026 guidance of Rmb900mn revenue and Rmb460mn adjusted net profit can be delivered.
• Whether growth in the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea can remain resilient.
• Whether domestic premium consumption will continue to recover in 2H26, especially the stability of sales after the low-base period.
• Whether the revenue contribution of the proprietary Kaluga Queen brand will continue to increase.
• The store opening pace, per-store GMV, and earnings quality of 50 domestic specialty stores within 3 years.
• US tariffs, the layout of overseas farming bases, logistics costs, and changes in the RMB exchange rate.
• Delivery of the company's 15k+ ton sturgeon inventory, mature fish ratio, and target of 15% annual output growth over the next 3~5 years.