Morgan Stanley expects June 2026 GB200/300 NVL72 rack shipments of approximately 8.0K, with the full-year 70-80K rack assumption unchanged

Overview

This report is a Morgan Stanley tracking study on the Greater China technology hardware sector, focusing on monthly and quarterly shipment pace of GB200/GB300 NVL72-equivalent racks among major server ODMs. It estimates June 2026 GB200/300 rack output at around 8.0K, up about 5% month over month, and maintains the 2026 full-year 70-80K rack forecast, indicating that AI server downstream rack assembly remains in a strong cycle.

Core views

The report expects rack shipments in 2026 to grow more than 100% year-on-year versus about 29K last year. By company, it estimates Wistron with about 3.3K racks in June and about 10.3K in 2Q, slightly above prior estimates; Quanta with about 2.3-2.4K in June and 2Q of about 6.2-6.3K, below the prior roughly 6.7K estimate but with the full-year assumption of about 18.7K unchanged; Wistron with about 1.2-1.3K June equivalent racks and 2Q of about 3.9-4.0K, below the prior about 4.2K estimate but with the full-year assumption of about 14.1K unchanged. The preference ranking is Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly/quarterly rack shipment forecasting framework, segmenting GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack output by major ODMs, and combines monthly revenue, laptop, monitor, desktop, and server-related revenue with AI-product momentum to assess shipment pace. In addition, stock valuation and risk sections use a residual income valuation model, with assumptions including cost of equity, mid-term growth rate, and terminal growth rate.

Methodology notes

• Industry trackingMonthly/quarterly rack shipment forecast

  Estimate GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack output by major ODMs

  The report takes Quanta, Wistron, Hon Hai, and other major ODMs as the core and estimates June and 2Q rack shipments, comparing them with prior forecasts and full-year assumptions.

• Valuation methodsResidual income valuation model

  Derive base-case value using cost of equity, mid-term growth rate, and perpetual growth rate

  Valuation approaches for Hon Hai, Quanta, and Wistron all mention a residual income model under the base case, with key assumptions including a cost of equity of roughly 8.5%-9.0%, mid-term growth of 7.0%-13%, and 3% terminal growth.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)

  AI server ODM with rack-equivalent shipment exposure related to GB200/300 compute trays/racks

  Strengths

  June revenue was up 54% year-on-year, Wiwynn revenue was up 33% month-over-month to NT$111.4B, full-year GB200/300 rack assumption remains about 14.1K, and it ranks first in the report’s preference order.

  Weaknesses

  June GB200/300 server compute tray shipments were about 1.2-1.3K rack-equivalent, down 5%-10% month-on-month; 2Q shipments are slightly below prior forecasts.

  Comparison

  Relative to Hon Hai and Quanta, the report sees Wistron as the most attractive based on target-price upside potential.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected laptop demand, soft Apple Watch demand, rising labor costs and lower-than-expected sales pressuring margins, intense hyperscaler price competition, and slower-than-expected AI server penetration.

• Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW)

  Major server ODM and AI server rack-linked iPhone assembly exposure

  Strengths

  June GB rack shipments were about 3.3K; 2Q about 10.3K, slightly above the prior estimate of about 10K; AI-related server revenue retained momentum.

  Weaknesses

  June total revenue was down 4% month-on-month, with consumer electronics and compute segments slightly weak on a month-over-month basis; slower iPhone pull-through is weighing on the consumer business.

  Comparison

  Ranks after Wistron and before Quanta in the report’s major server ODM preference order.

  Risks

  iPhone sell-through below expectations, AI business profit contribution remains limited, electric vehicle business progress is slower, and geopolitical developments may weigh on foreign investor sentiment.

• Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW)

  GB200/300 rack shipments and server ODM-related exposure

  Strengths

  June revenue was NT$385.2B, up 24% month-over-month and 103% year-on-year; June GB200/300 rack shipments were 2.3-2.4K, above May’s 1.8-1.9K.

  Weaknesses

  2Q GB200/300 rack shipments were about 6.2-6.3K, slightly below the prior estimate of about 6.7K.

  Comparison

  Ranks third in the report’s major server ODM preference order, but remains an OW-rated name.

  Risks

  Laptop demand weaker than expected, soft Apple Watch demand, server demand below expectations, AI server penetration below expectations, and margin pressure from product shortages and competition.

Key data

• June industry GB200/300 rack outputabout 8.0Kabout 5% month-over-month growth.
• 2026 full-year industry rack forecast70-80Kcorresponds to year-on-year growth of more than 100%, with last year at about 29K.
• Quanta June GB200/300 rack shipments2.3-2.4KMay was 1.8-1.9K; 2Q about 6.2-6.3K, full-year assumption about 18.7K.
• Wistron June GB200/300 rack-equivalent shipments1.2-1.3Kabout 5%-10% month-on-month decline; 2Q about 3.9-4.0K, full-year assumption about 14.1K.
• Hon Hai June GB rack shipmentsabout 3.3Kroughly flat month-over-month; 2Q about 10.3K, above the previous estimate of about 10K.
• Quanta June revenueNT$385.2Bup 24% month-on-month and up 103% year-on-year.
• Wistron June revenueNT$321.8Bup 11% month-on-month and up 54% year-on-year.
• Hon Hai June revenueNT$821.8Bdown 4% month-on-month and up 52% year-on-year.

Impact & implications

The report’s implications for the AI server supply chain are cautiously positive: continuing growth in GB200/300 rack output and an unchanged full-year forecast suggest there is still deferred and catch-up shipment potential in the second half. For the major ODMs, AI server rack shipments are a key driver of revenue and earnings expectations, while company differences stem from shipment timing, product mix, downstream demand, and the scope for valuation upside versus target price.

Risks

• The number of racks actually delivered to end customers may be lower than report estimates because Wistron’s compute tray L10 to full rack L11-equivalent metric may not fully capture L11 assembly and validation lead times.
• Some 2Q rack shipments are below prior forecasts; if the deferred second-half catch-up falls short, the 70-80K full-year rack assumption faces downward revision risk.
• Profit contribution from AI server business may be below expectations, and product-mix improvement may be insufficient to offset cost and pricing pressure.
• Weak demand in non-AI segments such as consumer electronics, laptops, Apple Watch, and iPhone could drag on overall ODM revenue and margin.
• Geopolitical factors could affect foreign investor sentiment and supply-chain valuation.

What to watch

• Whether monthly June-September GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack shipments in 7-9M accelerate, confirming whether 2Q deferrals are realized in the second half.
• Changes in AI server revenue share and margin for Quanta, Wistron, and Hon Hai.
• The lead time and actual end-customer delivery rhythm between Wistron’s compute tray L10 and complete rack L11 deliveries.
• Whether Hon Hai’s 3Q AI-related rack shipments exceed the prior estimate of about 7.5K.
• Whether downstream cloud providers and AI data center capex continue to support GB200/GB300 demand.