Chinese automakers’ Southeast Asia expansion enters a scaled phase, with ASEAN share potentially rising to 20%-25% by 2030

Overview

This report is J.P.Morgan’s second part on Chinese automotive overseas expansion, focusing on Southeast Asia. The core conclusion is that although Southeast Asia differs from Europe in political and industrial environment, Chinese automakers are replicating a similar overseas expansion path through smart NEV product portfolios, cost advantages, and localized manufacturing footprints. The report expects total ASEAN auto sales to grow from 3.29 million units in 2025 to 3.80 million in 2030, a CAGR of about 3%; Chinese OEM share in ASEAN could rise from 11% in 2025 to 20%-25% in 2030.

Core views

The report believes Chinese OEMs have already moved beyond the market-entry phase in Southeast Asia and will enter a key scale-expansion period from 2025 to 2030. Growth drivers include: first, Chinese brands hold a clear lead in the NEV segment; second, multiple powertrain paths such as BEV, PHEV, and EREV broaden product coverage; third, intelligent features are becoming a key differentiator; fourth, automakers such as BYD, Geely, Great Wall, and Chery are building or utilizing localized capacity in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and other markets; fifth, policy incentives, import restrictions, and local-content requirements are collectively pushing automakers from exports toward local manufacturing.

Analysis framework

The report breaks down the ASEAN market by country, focusing on policy environments, NEV penetration, competitive landscape, localization requirements, and Chinese brand share in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and combines this with the overseas revenue exposure, capacity footprint, and valuation tables of Chinese automakers to form sector and stock preferences.

Methodology notes

• Industry share forecast2030 ASEAN share scenario analysis

  Uses ASEAN total sales growth and Chinese OEM share gains as the core variables to estimate the incremental sales space for Chinese automakers.

  The base case assumes Chinese OEMs capture 20% share in ASEAN by 2030, while the bull case assumes 25%, corresponding to more than 400,000 units or about 590,000 units of incremental sales.

• Regional policy comparisonCountry policy and localization constraint analysis

  Compares subsidies, taxes, import restrictions, local manufacturing requirements, and battery industry policies across countries.

  Thailand promotes the EV industry through subsidies and local production offsets; Malaysia protects local brands and encourages localization; Indonesia leverages nickel resources to push the battery and whole-vehicle supply chain; the Philippines promotes EV manufacturing through EVIS.

• Product competitiveness analysisSmart NEV product competitiveness framework

  Explains share growth through intelligent features, powertrain mix, pricing, and cost advantages.

  The report emphasizes that Chinese automakers abroad rely not only on low prices, but also on making ADAS L2+, connected cockpits, large screens, and fast charging standard features to improve product appeal.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD

  Core beneficiary

  Strengths

  It has a broad overseas manufacturing footprint, with local manufacturing plans in both Thailand and Indonesia; the report estimates overseas revenue will account for about 50%-60% of auto revenue in 2026; it is expanding aggressively in markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia.

  Weaknesses

  Its early advantage in some markets may be eroded by competitors such as Proton, Jaecoo, Leapmotor, Zeekr, and Denza.

  Comparison

  Compared with most Chinese OEMs, BYD is more advanced in overseas manufacturing, brand recognition, and channel development.

  Risks

  Local policy changes, removal of import incentives, price competition, and slower-than-expected expansion of dealer and after-sales networks.

• Geely

  Important beneficiary

  Strengths

  Through Proton, it has a localized base in Malaysia, and the report estimates overseas revenue share at about 40% in 2026.

  Weaknesses

  Stronger protection for local brands and higher policy barriers in Malaysia may require deeper localization investment.

  Comparison

  Compared with a pure export model, Geely is better positioned to adapt to the local Malaysian market through Proton.

  Risks

  Local brand positioning, model mix, and EV infrastructure bottlenecks may affect sales sustainability.

• Leapmotor

  Growth beneficiary

  Strengths

  The report lists it as one of the preferred names, with further room to expand overseas revenue and sales.

  Weaknesses

  Its overseas scale and brand recognition are still in the early stage, and its export share in 2026 is estimated to be below that of some peers.

  Comparison

  Compared with BYD and Geely, Leapmotor relies more on the execution of channels, branding, and local partnerships.

  Risks

  Overseas execution, after-sales network, model fit, and price competition.

• XPeng

  Smart-tech beneficiary

  Strengths

  Its smart features and configuration advantages align with the report’s smart NEV competitive logic, and its overseas revenue share in 2026 is estimated at about 20%.

  Weaknesses

  Localized capacity in Southeast Asia still needs to materialize, and its scale is smaller than leaders such as BYD.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional automakers, XPeng has a differentiation edge in smart features; compared with BYD, it is weaker in manufacturing and channel scale.

  Risks

  Demand volatility, localization progress, brand recognition, and pricing acceptance.

• NIO

  Preferred-name holding

  Strengths

  The report reiterates its preference for NIO, reflecting its growth profile among Chinese NEV stocks.

  Weaknesses

  The report discloses relatively little concrete evidence on Southeast Asian share, capacity, and channels.

  Comparison

  Compared with BYD, Geely, and XPeng, the report contains less empirical Southeast Asia material for NIO.

  Risks

  Overseas expansion pace, cost control, and insufficient validation of profitability.

• Astra International

  Indonesia-related name

  Strengths

  The report has an overweight rating on Astra International, and it is an important coverage company in Indonesia’s auto ecosystem.

  Weaknesses

  Rising Chinese brand and BEV share may alter the local competitive landscape.

  Comparison

  As a leading local auto-related company, its benefit or pressure depends on brand mix and the new energy transition.

  Risks

  Rising Chinese OEM share and policy tilt toward BEV and the local battery supply chain.

• GT Capital Holdings

  Philippines-related pressured name

  Strengths

  It has exposure to the Philippine automotive business.

  Weaknesses

  The report notes that after BYD’s cooperation with Ayala, BYD became the third-largest automotive brand in the Philippines, increasing competitive pressure on GT Capital’s auto business.

  Comparison

  Compared with entrants such as BYD, its traditional auto business faces competition in both NEV and channels.

  Risks

  Higher EV penetration, policy support for EV manufacturing, and intensifying competition.

Key data

• Chinese OEM ASEAN share forecast11% in 2025; about 20%-25% in 2030Corresponds to roughly 400,000 to 590,000 units of incremental opportunity over 2025-2030.
• ASEAN total auto sales forecast3.29 million units in 2025; 3.80 million in 2030J.P.Morgan expects a CAGR of about 3%.
• China passenger vehicle exportsMore than 1.9 million units in 1Q26, up 64% year on yearEurope accounted for 38%, Asia for 32%; NEV accounted for 49% of passenger vehicle exports.
• China NEV export mixPHEV accounted for about 37% of NEV exports by March 2026A significant increase from about 11% in January 2024.
• Thailand NEV penetration22.8% in 2025; BEV/PHEV penetration of 32.2%/2.3% year to date in 2026On a passenger-vehicle basis, BEV penetration year to date in 2026 reached 46.2%.
• Thailand Chinese brand share forecastAbout 30%-34% in 2030About 22% in 2025.
• Malaysia Chinese brand shareAbout 8% overall in 2025, about 52% in the EV marketThe report expects overall share of about 18%-20% in 2030.
• Malaysia charging infrastructureAbout 5,000 public charging pointsBelow the government’s target of 10,000 by end-2025; public charging density is about 0.01 per square kilometer.
• Indonesia Chinese OEM shareAbout 20% in the first four months of 2026, with sales up 75% year on yearChinese OEMs are estimated to hold more than 85% share in the BEV sub-segment.
• Indonesia BEV penetration5% in 2024; 13% in 2025; 16.5% in the first four months of 2026Supported by VAT discounts, luxury tax discounts, and relaxed import tariffs.
• BYD Indonesia capacityExpected to start production in 2026, with annual capacity of 150,000 unitsIt serves both domestic and export markets and has rapidly built a dealer network of more than 80 dealers.
• Forecast Chinese automaker overseas revenue shareBYD about 50%-60%, Geely about 40%, XPeng about 20%, Leapmotor above 10%These are J.P.Morgan’s estimates for 2026.

Impact & implications

For investors, overseas expansion is becoming an important variable in the valuation and earnings narrative of Chinese auto stocks. The report suggests focusing on NEV makers with high or fast-growing overseas revenue exposure and stronger growth momentum in 2Q26 or 2H26. For local Southeast Asian and Japanese incumbent automakers, the entry of Chinese brands will intensify share pressure, especially in EV and smarter feature-rich segments.

Risks

• Policies in Southeast Asian countries may change, and subsidies, import tariffs, VAT discounts, and local-content requirements will directly affect Chinese automakers’ profitability and sales.
• Insufficient charging infrastructure in Malaysia may limit EV adoption from early adopters to the mass market.
• Indonesia may shift incentives from LFP batteries to nickel-based batteries, affecting the cost and pricing of some Chinese BEV models.
• Demand front-loading may create a short-term sales peak followed by a pullback, for example if policy-window stockpiling pulls forward future demand.
• If localized manufacturing, dealers, after-sales services, and brand building do not keep pace with capacity expansion, share gains may be constrained.
• Rising competition from Japanese brands, local brands, and other new Chinese entrants may compress prices and margins.
• Overseas political, trade, and compliance risks may affect exports, local factory construction, and supply-chain layout.

What to watch

• Execution of Thailand’s EV 3.5 policy, whether demand remains sustainable after subsidies fade, and the impact of local production offset requirements on Chinese automakers’ capacity utilization.
• After Malaysia’s new policy in July, whether minimum import prices and minimum power requirements significantly suppress low-priced CBU EV imports.
• Whether Malaysia’s public charging point buildout can increase from about 5,000 to the government’s target level.
• Whether Indonesia adjusts VAT discounts, import tariffs, and incentives by battery technology path, especially differences in treatment between LFP and nickel-based batteries.
• BYD Indonesia’s plant production launch in 2026, the ramp-up of 150,000 units of annual capacity, and dealer network expansion.
• The rollout progress of the Philippines EVIS and whether BYD continues to gain share after partnering with Ayala.
• The 2026 overseas revenue share, sales growth, and margin realization of BYD, Geely, Leapmotor, XPeng, and NIO.