Giant Biogene's new product launch shows strong momentum, with initial sales of Ultra Glow Stick running ahead of the full-year target pace

Overview

This report focuses on the sales performance of Comfy Bi-phase Ultra Glow Stick, a new product under Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd (2367.HK), after its launch. The report believes that the product generated more than RMB 30 million in GMV through self-operated e-commerce and brand livestreaming channels within 7 days of launch, showing strong initial traction, and these sales exclude Li Jiaqi livestream sales. Morgan Stanley maintains a positive view on the company, lists it as a Top Pick, and assigns a target price of HK$43.00.

Core views

The core view is that the new product demonstrates strong validation of organic demand: with limited influencer support and no additional discounts, the product still achieved substantial GMV, which could strengthen Giant Biogene's bargaining power with e-commerce platforms and influencer partners. The company expects Ultra Glow Stick to contribute RMB 200 million in sales in 2026, and the current launch pace is ahead of target. Meanwhile, the report believes Ultra Glow Stick focuses on brightening, while Collagen Stick focuses on repair and redness reduction, so the likelihood of significant cannibalization between the two is limited.

Analysis framework

The report mainly analyzes early GMV after the new product launch, channel mix, pace versus full-year sales targets, product functional positioning, gross margin assessment, and valuation multiples. The valuation section uses a 2026 target P/E of 21x, corresponding to 1.4x PEG based on 2026-2028 EPS CAGR.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsTarget P/E and PEG

  Uses a 2026 target P/E of 21x as the benchmark valuation, corresponding to 1.4x PEG based on 2026-2028 EPS CAGR.

  Morgan Stanley believes that before sales growth re-accelerates, the market may underestimate Giant Biogene's biotech advantages in the short term.

• Financial modelMorgan Stanley ModelWare

  Unless otherwise stated, financial metrics are based on the Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework.

  Forecast metrics in the report, including EPS, revenue, EBITDA, net profit, P/E, ROE, EV/EBITDA, and dividend yield, come from the institution's model or consensus methodology.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd (2367.HK)

  Covered target in the report

  Strengths

  Strong initial sales launch for the new product; recombinant collagen skincare has room for greater customer acceptance; improving core brand awareness; target price implies 34% upside.

  Weaknesses

  Collagen Stick sales declined in 2025 due to external negative publicity; the market may underestimate its biotech advantages in the short term, indicating that growth realization still needs time.

  Comparison

  Ultra Glow Stick focuses on brightening, while Collagen Stick focuses on repair and redness reduction. The report believes their functional positioning differs, with a low risk of obvious cannibalization.

  Risks

  Operating margin contraction, delays in approval of new medical aesthetics products, weakening momentum of recombinant collagen products, intensified industry competition, and macro weakness.

Key data

• GMV in the first 7 days after new product launch>RMB 30 millionFrom self-operated e-commerce and brand livestreaming, excluding Li Jiaqi livestream sales.
• Ultra Glow Stick 2026 sales targetRMB 200 millionThe sales amount the company expects this new product to achieve in 2026.
• Collagen Stick 2025 sales estimateRMB 1.1-1.2 billionSales declined in 2025 after external negative publicity, and the company aims to restore growth in 2026.
• Company average gross margin in 2025About 80%Morgan Stanley estimates that Ultra Glow Stick and Collagen Stick have gross margins above this average level.
• Target priceHK$43.0034% upside relative to the closing price of HK$32.02 on April 22, 2026.
• 2026e revenueRMB 6.083 billionMorgan Stanley forecast disclosed in the table.
• 2026e EPSRMB 1.80EPS forecast disclosed in the table.

Impact & implications

If the new product momentum continues, Giant Biogene may not only achieve its 2026 new product sales target, but also enhance its negotiating power with e-commerce platforms and influencer channels through stronger proof of organic demand. Volume growth from high-margin new products would also help support earnings quality, but whether the company can deliver accelerating sales, sustain brand momentum, and manage competitive pressure remains key.

Risks

• Operating margin contraction faster than expected.
• Delays in approval of new medical aesthetics products.
• Weakening sales momentum of recombinant collagen products.
• Intensifying industry competition combined with a weak macro environment.
• Collagen Stick recovery growth may fall short of expectations or be disrupted by renewed publicity issues.

What to watch

• Whether Ultra Glow Stick GMV can remain sustainable after launch, rather than relying only on initial-launch hype.
• Whether platform and influencer cooperation terms improve during 6.18 due to validation of the new product's organic demand.
• The sales mix of Ultra Glow Stick and Collagen Stick and whether actual cannibalization emerges.
• Whether Collagen Stick can return to growth in 2026.
• Progress in medical aesthetics product approvals and the pace of new product launches.
• Whether the company's gross margin and operating margin remain at high-quality levels.