Glass core substrates are gaining traction in advanced packaging, but revenue realization remains a medium- to long-term story
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Glass core substrates are gaining traction in advanced packaging, but revenue realization remains a medium- to long-term story
Morgan Stanley believes events such as Lens Technology's collaboration with Intel help improve market sentiment. Display supply chain companies are making progress in TGV and copper plating, but large-scale mass production and meaningful revenue contribution will mostly have to wait until 2H27 to 2029.
- Lens Technology announced a collaboration with Intel to develop glass core substrates with TGV. Channel checks indicate its pilot line may be ready by end-2026, with more meaningful shipments potentially starting in 2H27.
- Innoux/Innolux is advancing glass core substrate projects with TSMC and Ibiden, and channel checks suggest mass production could come in 2H28 or 2029.
- BOE plans to build capacity in 2027 and, if progress goes smoothly, may start mass production in 2028, with the goal of completing the full glass core ABF substrate process.
- AUO plans to focus glass applications on LEO satellite antenna modules and micro LED optical modules, but the report did not hear a clear mass production timeline.
- The core bottleneck is not simply equipment capability, but process control and yield improvement under higher precision and density requirements.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report focuses on progress in the use of glass materials in advanced packaging, especially glass core substrates, within the Asia Pacific and Greater China technology hardware supply chain. The report notes that as chip and package sizes continue to expand, display supply chain companies hope to transfer their existing capabilities in glass processing, TGV, and copper plating into advanced packaging. Lens Technology's collaboration announcement with Intel has increased attention on the theme, but Morgan Stanley believes more substantial revenue contribution will still require waiting for pilot production, yield ramp-up, and mass production validation.
Core views
The core view is that glass core substrates offer cost advantages from larger sizes and may improve electrical performance, reduce signal loss, alleviate warpage caused by mismatched coefficients of thermal expansion among different materials, and enhance mechanical stability during manufacturing and operation. Display supply chain companies are currently making more progress in TGV and copper plating, but advanced packaging requires higher precision and density than traditional display businesses. Whether these companies can continue improving yields will determine how much value they can capture in the mass production stage. Overall, the theme is supportive for sentiment, but the pace of commercialization remains long-dated.
Analysis framework
The report uses industry tracking and supply chain channel checks, focusing on display supply chain participants such as Lens Technology, Innoux/Innolux, BOE, and AUO. It compares their partners, pilot or mass production timelines, application directions, and process capability progress, and combines this with a prior deep analytical framework on advanced packaging glass opportunities to assess the industry's significance.
Methodology notes
Starting from glass material properties, process steps, and the display supply chain's existing capabilities, assess whether manufacturers can enter the advanced packaging value chain.
The report emphasizes glass's potential advantages in large size, low signal loss, low warpage, and mechanical strength, and treats TGV, copper plating, yield, and process control as key variables in judging mass production value.
Track pilot lines, capacity expansion, and mass production milestones through channel checks.
The report lists the partners and potential timelines of Lens Technology, Innoux/Innolux, BOE, and AUO to distinguish short-term sentiment catalysts from medium- to long-term revenue contribution.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Lens Technology (300433.SZ)Glass core substrate partner and potential participant in the advanced packaging supply chain
- Strengths
- Announced collaboration with Intel to develop TGV glass core substrates. Channel checks indicate the pilot line may be ready by end-2026, and it may also advance cooperation with potential Korean customers.
- Weaknesses
- More meaningful shipments are still expected only in 2H27, with limited near-term revenue contribution.
- Comparison
- Compared with other display supply chain manufacturers, Lens Technology's Intel collaboration announcement provides a clearer near-term sentiment catalyst.
- Risks
- Yield ramp-up, process control, customer qualification, and mass production timing may fall short of expectations.
- Innolux / Innoux (3481.TW)Advancing glass core substrate projects in collaboration with TSMC and Ibiden
- Strengths
- Participates in projects related to TSMC and Ibiden and has a glass process background from the display supply chain.
- Weaknesses
- The mass production timeline is distant, expected in 2H28 or 2029.
- Comparison
- Compared with Lens Technology, it has strong project partners but a later commercialization timeline.
- Risks
- Advanced packaging precision requirements, yield, customer mass production adoption, and project timeline delays.
- BOE Technology (000725.SZ)Advancing glass core and ABF substrate processes for customers in China and North America
- Strengths
- Plans to build capacity in 2027 and aims to complete the full glass core ABF substrate process.
- Weaknesses
- Mass production still depends on smooth progress and is currently still in the planning and advancement stage.
- Comparison
- BOE's target covers a more complete process flow, but execution complexity is also higher.
- Risks
- Risks related to capacity construction, process integration, customer validation, and cross-process yield control.
- AUO (2049.TW)Plans to use glass in LEO antenna modules and micro LED optical modules
- Strengths
- Its application direction differs from glass core substrates, focusing on LEO- and micro LED-related modules.
- Weaknesses
- The report did not hear a clear mass production timeline, so visibility is low.
- Comparison
- Compared with Lens Technology, Innoux/Innolux, and BOE, AUO is currently more focused on application exploration rather than a clear mass production path.
- Risks
- Uncertainty around application demand realization, technology route selection, and the mass production timeline.
Key data
- Lens Technology pilot lineend-2026Channel checks indicate its pilot line for TGV glass core substrates developed with Intel may be ready by end-2026.
- Lens Technology more meaningful shipmentsstarting in 2H27The report believes more meaningful volume shipments may begin in 2H27.
- Innoux/Innolux mass production timing2H28 or 2029It is advancing glass core substrate projects with TSMC and Ibiden, and channel checks indicate mass production may come in 2H28 or 2029.
- BOE capacity build-out and mass production plancapacity build-out in 2027, mass production in 2028If progress goes smoothly, BOE plans to build capacity in 2027 and start mass production in 2028.
- Industry viewIn-LineMorgan Stanley's industry view on Greater China technology hardware is In-Line.
- Morgan Stanley global ratings distributionOverweight/Buy 42%, Equal-weight/Hold 43%, Underweight/Sell 15%Disclosure statistics for covered stocks and ADRs as of June 30, 2026.
Impact & implications
From an investment perspective, the glass core substrate theme can continue to support the medium- to long-term narrative for advanced packaging and AI hardware supply chains, and may enable display supply chain manufacturers with glass processing, TGV, and copper plating capabilities to gain new growth curves. However, the report also warns that near-term financial contribution is limited, and the market should focus more on pilot line implementation, yield improvement, customer validation, and mass production timelines, rather than extrapolating revenue solely from collaboration announcements.
Risks
- Mass production yield improvement for glass core substrates may be slower than expected.
- Advanced packaging has significantly higher requirements for precision and density than traditional display processes, making process control more difficult.
- Pilot lines, customer validation, or mass production timelines may be delayed.
- Short-term theme enthusiasm may run ahead of actual revenue contribution, leading to overly high market expectations.
- Beyond equipment capability, process integration and the stability of TGV and copper plating still need validation.
- Investment bank research disclosures show Morgan Stanley has business relationships with multiple covered companies, and investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest.
What to watch
- Whether Lens Technology's pilot line for its collaboration project with Intel will be ready as planned by end-2026.
- Whether Lens Technology can begin more meaningful volume shipments in 2H27.
- Mass production progress for Innoux/Innolux's projects with TSMC and Ibiden around 2H28 or 2029.
- Execution of BOE's 2027 capacity build-out and 2028 mass production plan.
- Yield, precision, density, and reliability metrics for TGV and copper plating processes.
- The pace of customer adoption of glass core substrates in AI chips, advanced packaging, and large packages.