The Battle for Payments Control Points Intensifies: Adyen Defends the Merchant Side, While Wise Faces Incremental Competition from Stripe

Overview

This edition of Payments Pulse examines the battle for control points in the payments industry, analyzing Stripe's expansion into AI infrastructure and FX services as well as the implications for Adyen and Wise of banks advancing interoperable tokenized deposits. The report believes Adyen's focus on merchant relationships remains well-founded. Wise's cross-border network advantage has not yet been replicated, but Stripe's workflow and distribution advantages are creating more concrete competitive pressure.

Core views

The first major theme is Stripe's agreement to acquire AI model gateway OpenRouter. OpenRouter helps enterprises route usage demand across more than 400 models from over 80 providers and had already adopted Stripe's payments, invoicing, tax, and fraud-prevention services. If completed, the acquisition would take Stripe beyond the payments layer and further into the upstream infrastructure on which AI-native companies rely. The report therefore believes the strategic divergence between Stripe and Adyen is deepening: Stripe continues to broaden its technology stack, while Adyen continues to deepen its capabilities around merchant monetization and customer relationships. Adyen entered billing through Orb and added loyalty and promotional capabilities through Talon.One, but payments remain the core layer connecting these capabilities. Although AI may increasingly influence product discovery and customer acquisition, merchants still have strong incentives to retain control over pricing, identity, loyalty, and transaction economics. The report therefore believes Adyen does not need to follow Stripe into every layer of AI infrastructure, as the merchant side remains a critical control point. This development reinforces the importance of Adyen's strategic positioning but has limited near-term earnings implications. The second major theme is Stripe's expansion of multicurrency settlement and instant conversion capabilities. Merchants collecting international payments can now retain funds, convert currencies, and make balance payments within Stripe without transferring funds to another service provider, making Stripe a more credible competitor to Wise Business in workflows where payments and FX intersect. Wise's core advantage remains its local payment rails and cross-border money movement network built over many years, with broader geographic and currency coverage; Stripe has not rebuilt this underlying infrastructure. Stripe's advantage lies in distribution and workflow ownership: funds are already located within its ecosystem, reducing friction for merchants using FX services, while Stripe can bundle currency conversion capabilities with existing customer relationships rather than competing solely through the cross-border product itself. There is also some overlap with Wise Platform because Stripe can offer FX functionality to platforms and their underlying merchants, but Wise Platform remains a broader infrastructure solution capable of embedding Wise's cross-border network into banks and other enterprises. The report therefore views Stripe as an incremental competitive factor for Wise Business rather than a direct substitute for Wise's network advantage at this stage. The third major theme is banks' improvement of cross-border money movement rails. HSBC and Standard Chartered completed the first real-time cross-border tokenized deposit transaction using Swift's blockchain ledger, connecting tokenized deposits issued on two separate banking infrastructures. The report believes the significance lies not in the individual transaction but in banks' efforts to use regulated commercial bank deposits to provide the fast, programmable cross-border functionality previously associated more commonly with discussions of stablecoins. The transaction currently still relies on existing settlement infrastructure and is primarily aimed at institutional and corporate treasury workflows, which are far removed from Wise's core consumer and small and medium-sized enterprise businesses, so it does not represent an immediate competitive threat. However, if tokenized deposits ultimately become interoperable across banks and jurisdictions, some of the frictions supporting specialized cross-border services may gradually decline, and the long-term competitive debate will no longer be limited to stablecoins. The appendix shows that, as of August 20, 2026, Adyen's recent price was 1,062.80 EUR and Wise's was 919.40 GBX. The latest entry in Adyen's historical recommendation chart was Buy with a target price of 1,350.00 EUR on August 14, 2026; the latest entry in Wise's chart was Hold with a target price of 940.00 GBX on November 6, 2025. The report does not provide an explicit expected upside corresponding to the target prices or indicate any rating changes in this edition.

Analysis framework

The report first selects three industry events from the week—Stripe's proposed acquisition of OpenRouter, Stripe's expansion of multicurrency FX capabilities, and banks' completion of a cross-border tokenized deposit transaction—and then assesses which layer of commercial activity or money movement control each event changes. It subsequently compares platform positioning, customer relationships, underlying networks, and workflow ownership, while distinguishing between the near-term and long-term implications for Adyen and Wise.

Methodology notes

• Competitive and Strategic FrameworkValue chain analysis

  Comparing platform positioning across different layers, including AI infrastructure, the payment connectivity layer, merchant relationships, and cross-border money movement networks

  The report assesses the critical layers controlled by each company across the payments and commerce technology stack: Stripe is expanding upstream into AI infrastructure and FX workflows, Adyen is focusing on the merchant side, and Wise retains an advantage in the underlying cross-border network.

• Event Games and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Assessing changes in the competitive landscape through an acquisition, product expansion, and the first real-time transaction

  Rather than reforecasting total industry volumes, the report starts with three recent events and analyzes their immediate or potential impact on existing platforms' control and competitive relationships.

• Competitive and Strategic Framework

  Control Point Analysis

  The report treats the layers that control merchant relationships, the location of funds, identity, pricing, loyalty, or underlying networks as control points and uses them to assess platforms' strategic importance and customer retention capabilities.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSubstitution Effect Analysis

  Comparing the potential substitution relationships among Stripe's FX services, Wise's cross-border network, stablecoins, and bank-issued tokenized deposits

  The report distinguishes between direct and gradual substitution: Stripe currently creates incremental competition primarily within Wise Business workflows, while interoperable tokenized deposits may weaken some advantages of specialized cross-border services only after becoming mature across banks and jurisdictions.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Adyen (ADYEN.AS)

  The report believes Stripe's expansion into AI infrastructure further highlights their strategic divergence but also reinforces the strategic value of Adyen establishing control points around the merchant side.

  Strengths

  Focused on merchant monetization and customer relationships, using payments to connect billing, loyalty, and promotional capabilities; merchants still want to control pricing, identity, loyalty, and transaction economics.

  Weaknesses

  The relevant industry developments have limited implications for near-term earnings.

  Comparison

  Stripe continues to broaden its technology stack, while Adyen is deepening its integrated merchant-side platform through Orb and Talon.One.

• Wise PLC (WISEa.L)

  Stripe's embedding of FX functionality into existing payment workflows creates incremental competition for Wise Business, while bank-issued tokenized deposits are a longer-term potential factor.

  Strengths

  It has local payment rails and a cross-border money movement network built over many years, with broader geographic and currency coverage; Wise Platform can embed its cross-border network into banks and other enterprises.

  Weaknesses

  Compared with Stripe, Wise may not control the payment workflows where merchant funds are already held, potentially resulting in higher switching and operational friction for customers.

  Comparison

  Wise has stronger underlying cross-border capabilities, while Stripe's advantages lie in distribution, workflow ownership, and bundling FX functionality into existing merchant relationships.

  Risks

  Stripe may divert some Wise Business workflows; over the long term, interoperable tokenized deposits could reduce the frictions addressed by specialized cross-border services.

• Stripe

  Through its proposed acquisition of OpenRouter and the expansion of multicurrency settlement and instant conversion capabilities, Stripe is extending into AI infrastructure and FX workflows.

  Strengths

  It has established merchant relationships, payment distribution channels, and funds workflows, enabling it to bundle FX and other services with low friction.

  Weaknesses

  The report notes that Stripe has not rebuilt the local payment rails and cross-border network that Wise has developed over many years.

  Comparison

  Compared with Adyen, Stripe covers a broader technology stack; compared with Wise, Stripe has stronger workflow ownership but weaker underlying cross-border infrastructure.

Key data

• OpenRouter Model CoverageMore than 400 modelsOpenRouter can help enterprises route usage demand across different AI models.
• OpenRouter Provider CoverageOver 80 providersThis illustrates the coverage of Stripe's proposed acquisition target within AI model infrastructure.
• Adyen Recent Price1,062.80 EURAs of August 20, 2026.
• Adyen Latest Target Price and Rating Entry1,350.00 EUR; BuyThe latest entry in the historical recommendation chart is dated August 14, 2026.
• Wise Recent Price919.40 GBXAs of August 20, 2026.
• Wise Latest Target Price and Rating Entry940.00 GBX; HoldThe latest entry in the historical recommendation chart is dated November 6, 2025.
• Tokenized Deposit TransactionFirst real-time cross-border transactionHSBC and Standard Chartered used Swift's blockchain ledger to connect two separate banking infrastructures.

Impact & implications

The report believes competition in the payments industry is expanding from standalone payment products into multiple control points, including AI infrastructure, merchant workflows, FX services, and programmable bank deposits. Adyen's integrated strategy centered on merchant relationships remains relevant, with limited near-term earnings implications. Wise's underlying cross-border network remains stronger, but Stripe's embedding of FX into existing payment relationships will increase customers' incentives to remain within the Stripe ecosystem. Tokenized deposits do not yet pose an immediate threat, but if their interoperability continues to improve, they could reduce some structural frictions in cross-border money movement over the long term.

Risks

• Stripe's bundling of FX services into existing payment relationships may increase merchants' incentives to remain within its ecosystem and create sustained incremental competition for Wise Business.
• If tokenized deposits become interoperable across banks and jurisdictions, some of the frictions addressed by specialized cross-border services may gradually decline.

What to watch

• Monitor whether AI further influences product discovery and customer acquisition, and whether merchants can continue to control pricing, identity, loyalty, and transaction economics.
• Monitor whether tokenized deposits can achieve interoperability across different banks and jurisdictions and reduce their heavy reliance on existing settlement infrastructure.