HSBC maintains Ninebot Buy rating as e2W sales target and long-term growth outlook are reiterated

Overview

This is an HSBC Qianhai Securities research report on Ninebot, centered on the e2W business conference call on 13 May 2026. The report focuses on domestic e2W sales targets, product upgrades, overseas market entry, the dual-brand strategy, gross margin pressure, and the valuation conclusion. HSBC maintains its Buy rating and RMB65.00 target price, believing the current share price still offers about 59% upside to the target.

Core views

The report's core view is that Ninebot's domestic e2W business still has strong growth certainty. Management maintained its 2026 sales target of 5.5 million units and highlighted potential upside. The company plans to strengthen competitiveness through new national-standard e-motorbike and e-bike products, software and smart capabilities, vehicle performance, chassis, after-sales systems, and channel quality improvements, and expects competitiveness to step up in 2027. Overseas, the company is starting with Vietnam as its first market, planning to enter with self-developed products using high-capacity lithium batteries, while the Segway product line continues to expand and plans to fully launch e2W products in China in 2027. On earnings, although profits were pressured by higher raw material costs and promotions, the company raised e2W prices by RMB100 in April and expects gross margin to improve QoQ in 2H26.

Analysis framework

The report combines fundamental conference-call notes with DCF valuation: it first summarizes sales, price bands, products, channels, and overseas strategy from management's call, then assesses earnings trends by combining gross margin, costs, and new-product timing, and finally maintains the target price and rating using a DCF model.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  HSBC continues to use a DCF model to value Ninebot, keeping its existing assumptions and earnings forecasts unchanged, and arrives at an RMB65.00 target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ninebot 689009.SS

  The covered name in the report; HSBC maintains a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  Clear e2W sales target, ongoing product upgrades and channel-quality improvements, plus the Segway premium brand and Vietnam overseas market offer growth room.

  Weaknesses

  1Q26 gross margin declined because of rising raw material costs, slower-than-expected cost reduction, and promotional activity.

  Comparison

  The report argues that the company benefits from product upgrades driven by stricter product standards, and the industry's core price band may move up to RMB3,500 to RMB4,500.

  Risks

  Uncertainty around new national-standard changes, weaker-than-expected overseas demand, higher-than-expected raw material costs, intensifying competition, and a worsening trade environment.

Key data

• Target priceRMB65.00Unchanged from the previous target price.
• Current share priceCNY41.01Market data disclosed in the report.
• Implied upside+58.5%The report text also describes about 59% upside.
• 2026 e2W sales target5.5 million unitsManagement kept the target, implying about 34.5% growth versus 4.09 million units in 2025.
• 1Q26 e2W sales1.2 million unitsUp 22% YoY, or about 22% of the full-year target.
• 3Q26 sales target directionA record quarterly highThe company is targeting more than the 1.49 million units in 3Q25, implying about 55% YoY growth.
• 1Q26 overall gross margin26.5%Down 3.1 percentage points YoY, affected by raw materials, slower cost reduction, and promotions.
• e2W price increaseRMB100The company slightly raised prices for e2W products in April 2026.
• Long-term domestic Ninebot e2W sales targetabout 8 million to 10 million units per yearManagement's long-term domestic sales target range.

Impact & implications

The report is positive for Ninebot's share price: the sales target was not cut, 3Q26 could set a new quarterly record, product upgrades and new national standards support demand, and overseas expansion and Segway premiumization provide medium- to long-term upside. Near-term pressure mainly comes from gross margin and costs, but if price increases, new products, and scale effects are realized, 2H26 earnings quality may improve. Potential stock catalysts include e2W sales milestone announcements, new product launches, and the possibility of future inclusion in Stock Connect.

Risks

• There is uncertainty around revisions to China's e2W standards; unexpected changes to the standards could affect the company's business.
• Overseas demand for scooters, ATVs, or robotic lawn mowers weaker than expected could affect the revenue growth outlook.
• Higher-than-expected increases in key raw material prices such as lithium carbonate and aluminum could weigh on profitability.
• Intense competition in the short-distance mobility industry could negatively affect Ninebot's business outlook if price competition intensifies.
• A deterioration in the trade environment, such as higher tariffs or taxes, could affect overseas sales.

What to watch

• 2026 e2W sales milestone announcements and whether 3Q26 achieves a record quarterly sales high.
• The launch pace and market acceptance of deluxe e2W products under the new national standard starting in May 2026.
• Sales elasticity and gross margin recovery after the RMB100 April price increase.
• Vietnam market entry progress, self-developed high-capacity lithium battery product competitiveness, and channel build-out.
• New off-road Segway e-motorbike models and the launch of two to three new products at Milan EICMA.
• Whether the company will be included in Stock Connect in the future.