Goldman Sachs April China Economy Tracker: Weak Property Transactions, Rising Energy Prices
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Goldman Sachs April China Economy Tracker: Weak Property Transactions, Rising Energy Prices
Goldman Sachs updates end-of-April China high-frequency economic data, showing a decline in new property transactions, weakened steel demand, but increased coal consumption and energy prices, with continuous policies introduced at the policy level to stabilize growth.
- Average daily transaction area for 30 cities' first-hand housing margins declined slightly, lower than the same period last year
- Average daily transaction area for second-hand housing in 16 cities was up 2.6% YoY on April 29
- Domestic passenger flight volume down 1.4% YoY on April 29, cancellation rate rose
- Steel demand down 6.3% YoY on April 30, output down 3.3% YoY
- Average daily coal consumption in eight coastal provinces up 3.5% YoY on April 27
- Accumulated issuance of local government special bonds in 2026 reached 30.3% of the annual quota
- Brent crude oil broke through $120 in May 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel prices surged
Report interpretation
Overview
This research report is the April 30 update to Goldman Sachs' China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker. The report aims to closely monitor China's economic operation status through four sets of high-frequency indicators (Consumption & Mobility, Production & Investment, Other Macro Activities, Market & Policy). To track the impact of energy supply shocks on economic activity more closely, this tracker has been changed to weekly release. Overall, end-of-April data shows weak performance in the primary real estate market, declines in steel demand on the industrial production side, but significant increases in energy consumption and prices, while the policy side maintains a tone of stabilizing growth.
Core views
Consumption & Mobility aspect, real estate market differentiation continues, average daily transaction area for first-hand housing in 30 cities marginally declined and is below the same period last year, while average daily transaction area for second-hand housing in 16 cities recorded a 2.6% year-over-year increase on April 29. Mobility data is slightly weak, domestic passenger flight volume down 1.4% year-over-year on April 29, and cancellation rate rose 5.8%, major city traffic congestion index flat year-over-year. Production & Investment end, industrial activity varies. Steel demand down 6.3% year-over-year on April 30, steel output down 3.3% year-over-year, indicating pressure on construction and manufacturing demand. However, energy consumption remains resilient, average daily coal consumption in eight coastal provinces up 3.5% year-over-year on April 27. Affected by energy supply shocks, commodity prices fluctuated violently, Brent crude oil exceeded $120 in May 2026, driving domestic gasoline and diesel prices to surge significantly, sulfuric acid chemical product price index also climbed significantly. Trade & Logistics aspect, export container throughput down 0.8% year-over-year on April 27, cargo tonnage of ships departing from 20 major ports down 4.0% year-over-year on April 29, showing foreign trade logistics activity slight return. On policy level, 2026 local government special bond issuance progress steady, as of May cumulative issuance about 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.3% of annual quota. Since mid-February, central level densely issued multiple policies covering growth, consumption, trade, energy and employment areas, April Politburo meeting emphasized stability amid external uncertainties.
Analysis framework
Report adopts high-frequency data tracking method, compares 2026 real-time data with 2025 and 2019 same period for comparison, to identify marginal changes in economic activity. Analysis logic follows Demand - Production - Price - Policy main line: first observe consumption and mobility recovery through property transactions, flights, congestion index; second judge industrial production heat through steel, coal, chemical data; third observe cost and inflation pressure through crude oil, freight rates; finally sort out policy announcement timeline, evaluate policy countermeasure intensity. This weekly tracking method helps capture economic turning point signals during macro data release window periods, especially for impact assessment of sudden variables such as energy shocks.
Methodology notes
High-Frequency Data Tracking
Utilize weekly or daily high-frequency indicators (such as property transactions, flights, coal consumption, etc.) instead of monthly macro data, to reflect economy real-time operation situation more timely, especially suitable for tracking impact of sudden shocks (such as energy supply shock).
Supply-Demand Framework
In analysis of varieties such as steel, coal, crude oil, through comparing output (supply) and apparent consumption (demand) year-over-year changes, judge industry prosperity and price drivers.
Policy Event Sorting
Organize government and regulatory agency policy announcements by chronological order, classify into growth, consumption, trade types, to evaluate policy effort direction and density, assist judging macro policy tone.
Key data
- Avg Daily Area Transacted (First-Hand Housing, 30 Cities)Marginal decline, lower than same period last yearLast week data, showing first-hand housing market weak
- Avg Daily Area Transacted (Second-Hand Housing, 16 Cities)+2.6% (YoY)April 29 data, compared to 2025
- Domestic Passenger Flight Volume-1.4% (YoY)April 29 data, compared to 2025
- Steel Demand-6.3% (YoY)April 30 data, compared to 2025
- Steel Output-3.3% (YoY)April 30 data, compared to 2025
- Avg Daily Coal Consumption (8 Coastal Provinces)+3.5% (YoY)April 27 data, compared to 2025
- Official Port Container Throughput-0.8% (YoY)April 27 data, compared to 2025
- Local Government Special Bond Issuance Progress30.3%As of May cumulative issuance proportion to annual quota
- Brent Crude Oil Price> $120May 2026 level, driving domestic gasoline and diesel prices up
- 2026 China Oil Demand Forecast16.8 Mb/dGoldman Sachs forecast
Impact & implications
The report believes that current economic activities show structural differentiation characteristics, real estate and some industrial product demands still in adjustment period, but energy consumption resilience strong. Energy price significant rise may increase downstream cost pressures, which is also core reason why report switched to weekly tracking. Policy side continuously introduces stabilizing growth and promoting consumption measures, special bond issuance progress stays steady, providing bottom support for economy. Investors need to pay attention to potential transmission of energy supply shocks to inflation and enterprise profits, as well as subsequent policy intensity changes in responding to external uncertainties.
Risks
- Impact of energy supply shocks on economic activity exceeds expectations
- Increased external uncertainty may drag down exports and manufacturing investment
- Real estate market demand recovery fails to meet expectations
What to watch
- Weekly high-frequency economic data marginal changes, especially energy consumption and prices
- Subsequent macro policy announcements implementation situation and intensity
- Sustainability of real estate transaction data performance
- Trends in export container throughput and shipping data