June data show early signs of bottoming out for China home appliances, while overseas exports remain resilient

Overview

This report tracks domestic retail sales, factory shipments, exports, online share, overseas smart-cleaning demand, real-estate-related indicators, freight rates, raw material prices, and sector valuations for China's home appliance industry in June 2026. The core conclusion is that China's home appliance market has begun to show sequential improvement on a low base, while overseas exports continue to demonstrate resilience, driven by share gains of Chinese companies and innovative products.

Core views

Domestically, home appliance and electronics retail sales fell 9% YoY in June, narrowing from a 16% decline in May; domestic air-conditioner factory shipments fell 7% YoY, improving from a 15% decline in May and materially outperforming IOL's prior production plans. Overseas, overall home appliance export growth accelerated further in June. Although the decline in air-conditioner export shipments widened slightly from May, it still came in better than prior plans, and exports from leading companies' overseas factories may mean that IOL export data understate the true overseas performance of Chinese companies. At the company level, Goldman Sachs continues to favor Midea A/H, believing shareholder returns provide downside protection while overseas markets and new businesses offer upside; it remains positive on Ninebot's product lineup, domestic E2W share, structural growth in robotic lawn mowers, and overseas E2W potential; and it has turned more constructive on Roborock on the back of global share gains, new product expansion, and margin recovery after competition eased.

Analysis framework

The report cross-validates using IOL factory shipment data, NBS retail data, online platform sales and share data, Sensor Tower app downloads, Amazon US sales, AHAM US shipments, property sales and completions, freight rates, steel/copper/aluminum and other raw material prices, as well as valuation tables for covered companies. The analysis assesses changes in sector conditions from the demand side, supply side, channel side, overseas markets, cost side, and valuation side simultaneously.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodology12-month target price and exit P/E method

  Use 2028E EPS multiplied by the target exit P/E multiple, then discount back to 2027E using a 9.5% cost of equity.

  Midea A/H target prices of Rmb98/HK$113 are based on a 16x exit multiple; Ninebot target price of Rmb62 is based on 16x target exit P/E; Roborock target price of Rmb170 is based on 17x target exit P/E.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare stocks with the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles.

  Growth uses forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; financial returns use ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; multiples use P/E, P/B, P/D, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, and other metrics.

• Event and M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Score the likelihood of covered companies becoming acquisition targets on a scale of 1 to 3.

  Rank 1 represents a relatively high probability of 30%-50%, Rank 2 represents a medium probability of 15%-30%, and Rank 3 represents a lower probability of 0%-15%; Rank 1 or 2 may be incorporated into the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Midea A/H

  One of the core recommended names

  Strengths

  Shareholder returns provide downside protection, while overseas markets and emerging businesses offer upside potential; refrigerator shipments in May rose 27% YoY in total, with domestic/exports at +13%/+39%, respectively.

  Weaknesses

  Total air-conditioner shipments in June fell 11% YoY, with domestic and exports down 11% and 10%, respectively, lagging some peers.

  Comparison

  Outperformed the industry in refrigerators; underperformed Haier and Hisense in June air-conditioner shipments.

  Risks

  A global macro slowdown affecting demand for major appliances, rising material costs squeezing margins, execution risk in premiumization strategy, and intensifying mid- to low-end competition.

• Ninebot

  One of the core recommended names

  Strengths

  Comprehensive product lineup, rising domestic E2W share, structural growth in robotic lawn mowers, and overseas E2W potential; robotic lawn mower-related downloads showed 200%+ growth in June.

  Weaknesses

  Demand is still affected by the macro environment and consumer confidence, while new product expansion and overseas market execution remain uncertain.

  Comparison

  Strong performance in emerging categories such as robotic lawn mowers, and valuation near historical lows makes the risk-reward more attractive.

  Risks

  Declining disposable income and consumer confidence, slower-than-expected launches of new products or expansion into new categories, intensifying domestic and overseas competition, potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties, and rising raw material costs.

• Roborock

  A beneficiary name with a more constructive view

  Strengths

  Overseas RVC downloads rose 64% YoY, outpacing the industry; global share gains, expansion of new products especially wet-and-dry vacuum cleaners, and room for margin recovery after domestic competition eases.

  Weaknesses

  APAC share fell 2ppt YoY, and monthly RVC sales data remain volatile.

  Comparison

  Roborock outpaced the industry in overseas download growth and still maintained market leadership in APAC; on Amazon US, Roborock, Ecovacs, Dreame, and iRobot all gained share.

  Risks

  If the macro environment improves faster than expected, product development and expansion outperform expectations, and competition eases, these could represent upside risks to the more cautious assumptions.

• China home appliance export chain

  The main source of sector resilience

  Strengths

  Export growth outperformed expectations, with the European heatwave boosting demand for Chinese air conditioners, and companies continuing to gain share through innovation and competitive products.

  Weaknesses

  Air-conditioner exports fell 7% YoY in June, slightly weaker than -4% in May; freight rates continued to rise over the past month.

  Comparison

  Haier air-conditioner exports rose 23% YoY, Midea fell 10% YoY, and Gree fell 25% YoY, showing clear divergence among brands.

  Risks

  Overseas consumer demand, the housing markets in the US and Europe, tariffs, freight rates, and exchange-rate fluctuations.

Key data

• NBS home appliance and electronics retail salesJune 2026 YoY -9%Improved from -16% YoY in May 2026, indicating sequential recovery on a low base.
• Total air-conditioner factory shipmentsJune 2026 YoY -7%Narrowed from -11% YoY in May 2026 and beat IOL's prior production plans.
• Domestic air-conditioner factory shipmentsJune 2026 YoY -7%Improved from -15% YoY in May 2026.
• Export air-conditioner factory shipmentsJune 2026 YoY -7%Slightly weaker than -4% YoY in May 2026, but better than the prior production plan of -21%.
• Total washing machine shipmentsMay 2026 YoY +2%Slowed from +4% YoY in April 2026; domestic -9%, exports +12%.
• Total refrigerator shipmentsMay 2026 YoY +9%Accelerated from +6% YoY in April 2026; domestic -9%, exports +23%.
• VRF salesMay 2026 YoY -6%Domestic -8%, exports +1%; the domestic decline widened while export growth remained stable.
• Overseas RVC app downloadsJune 2026 YoY +56%Accelerated from +38% YoY in May 2026; Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific were +76%, +57%, and +30%, respectively.
• Roborock overseas downloadsJune 2026 YoY +64%Outpaced the industry average, with market share in the Americas and Europe up 6ppt and 1ppt YoY, respectively.
• Residential completionsJune 2026 YoY -27%The decline widened from -20% YoY in May 2026 and remained 48% below pre-pandemic levels.

Impact & implications

If the domestic low-base effect continues to emerge, home appliance retail sales and shipments could gradually recover in the second half of the year; overseas share gains and innovative products are also likely to continue supporting export performance of leading companies. From an investment perspective, Goldman Sachs prefers Midea, Ninebot, and Roborock, which offer shareholder returns, overseas expansion, new product cycles, or market-share-gain stories. However, weak residential completions and sales continue to suppress demand for major appliances, while difficulty in fully passing through price increases, rising freight rates, and competitive intensity could also weigh on margins.

Risks

• A global macro slowdown leads to weaker-than-expected demand for major appliances and discretionary consumption.
• Residential completions and sales continue to decline, dragging on replacement and new demand for major appliances in China.
• Rising raw material costs or freight rates erode margins.
• If demand recovery is insufficient, companies may struggle to fully pass through cost pressures via price increases.
• Competition intensifies in domestic and overseas markets, affecting pricing, share, and margins.
• New product launches, expansion into new categories, or overseas execution may be slower than expected.
• Potential tariffs or anti-dumping duties may reduce export profitability.

What to watch

• Whether IOL production plans are delivered in 3Q 2026, especially domestic and export air-conditioner shipments.
• Whether NBS home appliance and electronics retail sales continue to narrow declines or turn positive on a low base.
• The sustainability of orders and share gains for Chinese air-conditioner brands in Europe after the heatwave.
• Changes in overseas RVC app downloads, Amazon US sales, and Roborock's market share.
• Ninebot's robotic lawn mower downloads and progress in overseas E2W.
• Residential completions, residential sales, and their transmission to demand for major appliances.
• CCFI freight rates and key raw material prices such as steel, copper, and aluminum.