Beijing property-market policies ease again; 4Q sales and valuation recovery for SOE developers look promising

Overview

The report assesses the impact of Beijing's latest property easing policies on home-purchase demand, the pace of sales, and developer valuations. Goldman Sachs believes that although supply contraction has driven an initial market stabilization, demand recovery is the decisive force for the property market to emerge from its downcycle. Beijing's current round of policies covers both investment demand and owner-occupier demand, and is expected to improve sales momentum before the traditional peak season; among the three core tier-one cities, Shanghai remains the strictest, with the possibility of further easing of purchase-restriction policies in the coming months.

Core views

Beijing's current round of policies further substantially weakens purchase-restriction constraints by lowering the threshold for non-registered residents to buy homes, relaxing restrictions on housing gifts, and expanding provident-fund support. Historical experience shows that removing purchase restrictions mainly stimulates investment demand, while improving housing affordability is more conducive to releasing rigid and upgrading owner-occupier demand. Transactions of Beijing homes with low-to-mid total prices are expected to recover first, while the performance of high-end residences remains uncertain. As policy support spreads to other cities, improvements in the September peak sales season and 4Q sales are expected to drive valuation recovery for Chinese property developers, with SOE developers with stronger balance sheets and operating quality having greater advantages.

Analysis framework

The report combines a before-and-after comparison of Beijing's policy adjustments, a horizontal policy comparison among Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, tier-one city new-home and secondary-home transaction and price-segment data, inventory and listing pressure, and the share-price and valuation performance of covered developers to judge the transmission path of policies to different home-purchase demand segments, residential price ranges, and developer equities.

Methodology notes

• Policy analysisHorizontal comparison of tier-one city policies

  Compare the degree of restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen regarding purchase restrictions, housing gifts, and housing provident-fund loans.

  By comparing policy thresholds and the extent of loan support across cities, the report assesses Beijing's relative easing after policy relaxation and infers room for subsequent policy adjustments in Shanghai.

• Supply-demand analysisReal estate supply-demand transmission framework

  Distinguish stabilization brought by supply contraction from a cyclical reversal brought by demand recovery.

  The report argues that reducing new-home and secondary-home supply can only bring about phased stabilization, while sustained recovery in investment, owner-occupier, and upgrading demand is key to driving transactions and prices out of weakness.

• Market segmentationTransaction-structure analysis by price range

  Compare transaction shares and price performance by total residential price range.

  This method is used to identify the sequence of policy beneficiaries; the report expects low-to-mid total-price and rigid-demand housing in Beijing to improve first, while high-end residences that have recently performed weakly remain uncertain.

• Equity analysisDeveloper valuation and share-price comparison

  Screen beneficiaries by combining share-price drawdowns, corporate quality, and sensitivity to sales recovery.

  SOE developers with stronger fundamentals have fallen back to levels near those before the previous rally in May; if 4Q sales recover, their upside valuation elasticity may be more pronounced.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China property developer sector

  Demand-support policies in Beijing and other cities are expected to improve sales momentum and drive valuation recovery.

  Strengths

  Policy direction is clear, the traditional peak sales season is approaching, and high-quality developers' share prices have already corrected significantly.

  Weaknesses

  Overall industry demand has not yet formed a sustained reversal, recent new-home sales in Beijing have been weak, and inventory remains high.

  Comparison

  Beijing's provident-fund support is now close to Shanghai and Shenzhen, while Shanghai's current purchase-restriction constraints are relatively the strictest.

  Risks

  Policy effects falling short of expectations, continued house-price declines, slow inventory sell-through, and weak high-end housing demand.

• CRL, Jinmao, COLI, and Greentown

  The report lists them as Buy-rated names and believes stronger SOE developers are most likely to benefit from a 4Q sales recovery.

  Strengths

  Fundamentals are relatively stable, with stronger financing and execution capabilities and better ability to capture sales improvements in core cities.

  Weaknesses

  They remain affected by the industry's sales cycle, house prices, and the pace of policy implementation.

  Comparison

  Compared with developers with weaker financial positions, this group of names is considered to have better risk-bearing capacity and recovery elasticity.

  Risks

  Delayed sales recovery, insufficient policy transmission, mismatched project structures, and declining risk appetite for the sector.

• Beijing low-to-mid total-price housing

  The lower home-purchase threshold for non-registered residents and stronger provident-fund loan support are expected to directly improve rigid and owner-occupier demand.

  Strengths

  The demand base is broad and sensitive to changes in purchase eligibility and financing costs.

  Weaknesses

  The market still faces high inventory and weak price expectations.

  Comparison

  Short-term performance is expected to be better than Beijing high-end residences.

  Risks

  Insufficient homebuyer confidence, weakening income expectations, and limited duration of policy stimulus.

• Beijing high-end residences

  The removal of some eligibility restrictions may bring investment demand, but the report remains cautious on the near-term recovery outlook.

  Strengths

  After purchase restrictions are weakened, the segment may receive some support from high-net-worth and investment demand.

  Weaknesses

  Recent performance has been weaker than the low-to-mid-end market, and demand sustainability remains unclear.

  Comparison

  The certainty of recovery is expected to be lower than for low-to-mid total-price housing.

  Risks

  Weaker wealth effects, cooling investment themes, and high-end supply-demand imbalance.

Key data

• Beijing policy announcement and effective datesAnnounced on August 7, 2026, effective August 8This is Beijing's third round of property-market easing measures in the past year and the first round in 2026.
• Payment requirement for non-registered residentsShortened from two years to one yearApplies to purchases of commercial housing inside Beijing's Fifth Ring Road, while the cap on the number of homes that can be purchased remains unchanged.
• Eligibility for housing giftsHomes gifted by parents to children are exempt from home-purchase eligibility reviewThis arrangement makes Beijing relatively the most accommodative among the three core tier-one cities, while Shanghai remains the strictest.
• Theoretical maximum provident-fund loan amountRMB3.4 millionPreviously RMB1.6 million; the new amount is broadly comparable to RMB3.2 million in Shanghai and RMB3.5 million in Shenzhen.
• Base amounts for first and second homes for dual contributorsRMB2.4 million and RMB2.0 millionThese amounts have doubled compared with the corresponding amounts before the adjustment, and can reach up to RMB3.4 million after adding supplementary quotas.
• Provident-fund withdrawal cap for renovationRMB250,000 per homeThis round newly adds support for withdrawing provident-fund balances for home renovation.
• Historical change in investment demandApproximately 20% of total salesThe report cites changes in the share of investment demand before and after the implementation of purchase-restriction policies around 2010 to illustrate the impact of purchase-restriction adjustments on investment demand.
• Share-price drawdown of stronger SOE developersMore than 20%Share prices have fallen back to levels near those before the previous rally in May 2026, providing room for valuation recovery after sales improve.

Impact & implications

In the short term, transactions of Beijing low-to-mid total-price and rigid-demand housing may recover first, improving developers' sell-through performance after entering the September peak sales season. If the policies can continue to activate investment and owner-occupier demand, 4Q sales improvement will ease the market's pessimistic expectations for sector fundamentals and drive valuation recovery in developer stocks. Shanghai's relatively strict purchase-restriction policies also raise expectations for subsequent easing, potentially forming a policy relay among tier-one cities. At the equity level, SOE developers with better project layouts, stronger financing capabilities, and stable fundamentals are expected to benefit more significantly.

Risks

• Beijing's policies boost transaction volumes and prices less than expected.
• Residents' income and house-price expectations remain weak, leading to insufficient release of owner-occupier and investment demand.
• New-home inventory remains high, and the sell-through cycle fails to shorten meaningfully.
• The high-end residential market continues to underperform the low-to-mid-end market.
• Subsequent easing policies in Shanghai and other core cities fall short of market expectations or are introduced later than expected.
• Sales improvement fails to translate into developers' cash-flow and earnings recovery.
• Sector equities continue to face valuation and risk-appetite volatility before fundamentals are confirmed.

What to watch

• Weekly and monthly changes in new-home and secondary-home transactions after Beijing's policies take effect.
• Incremental transactions related to non-registered homebuyers inside Beijing's Fifth Ring Road and homes gifted by parents to children.
• Developers' sales performance during the traditional September-October peak sales season.
• Divergence in transaction and price performance between Beijing low-to-mid total-price housing and high-end residences.
• Whether Beijing's new-home inventory months and secondary-home listing pressure continue to decline.
• Whether Shanghai further eases purchase-restriction policies in the coming months.
• 4Q sales, cash collections, and valuation changes for CRL, Jinmao, COLI, and Greentown.