Nomura maintains Buy on Akeso and lowers target price to HKD138.29

Overview

This report is Nomura's 1H26F earnings preview and FY26F forecast revision for Akeso. The core view is that continued volume growth in drug sales, together with collaboration revenue from licensing ebronucimab to JumpCan, is likely to drive strong revenue growth and a return to profitability in 1H26F. Although Nomura lowered its FY26F revenue and earnings forecasts and cut the target price from HKD142.50 to HKD138.29, it still maintains a Buy rating.

Core views

Nomura expects 1H26F revenue of CNY2.4bn, up 68% YoY; drug sales are expected to contribute CNY2.2bn, up 55% YoY, mainly driven by the sales ramp-up of cadonilimab and ivonescimab. The report also expects collaboration revenue of CNY200mn from the February 2026 licensing of ebronucimab to JumpCan. On profitability, gross margin is expected to improve 2.3 percentage points YoY to 81.7%, 1H26F operating expenses are projected at about CNY1.71bn, and net profit is ultimately expected to be CNY46mn. For 2H26F, the report expects revenue of CNY2.7bn, drug sales up 53% YoY to CNY2.5bn, and net profit of CNY103mn.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes semiannual revenue breakdown, drug sales growth, licensing collaboration revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, and the DCF valuation model, and supports the Buy rating with the implied upside of the target price versus the current share price. The valuation uses a DCF framework with a terminal growth rate of 4.0%; WACC is stated as both 10.5% and 10.8% in the main text, while both point to a target price of HKD138.29.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  Nomura derives the target price of HKD138.29 based on a DCF model and uses a terminal growth rate of about 4.0%; WACC is stated as both 10.5% and 10.8% in the report, and this discrepancy should be preserved when citing it.

• Earnings forecastRevenue and profit forecast revision

  FY26F to FY28F forecast adjustments

  The report lowers FY26F revenue and earnings forecasts, mainly incorporating higher cadonilimab sales, lower collaboration revenue, and higher operating expense assumptions.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Akeso (9926.HK)

  Covered stock in the report, Buy rating maintained

  Strengths

  Rapid ramp-up in drug sales, with cadonilimab and ivonescimab driving revenue growth; the bispecific antibody platform and deep pipeline support the long-term innovative-drug story; 1H26F is expected to turn profitable.

  Weaknesses

  FY26F earnings forecasts were sharply lowered, operating expense assumptions increased, and uncertainty in collaboration revenue affects short-term profit elasticity.

  Comparison

  The report mentions that the stock is currently trading at 3.7x P/S based on FY35F sales of CNY22.3bn, and uses the Heng Seng Index as the benchmark.

  Risks

  HARMONi 3 data below expectations, slower-than-expected sales growth, and clinical setbacks in other assets.

Key data

• 1H26F revenue forecastCNY2.4bnUp 68% YoY.
• 1H26F drug sales forecastCNY2.2bnUp 55% YoY and 33% higher than 2H25.
• 1H26F collaboration revenue forecastCNY200mnFrom licensing ebronucimab to JumpCan.
• 1H26F net profit forecastCNY46mnA significant improvement versus losses of CNY570mn in 1H25 and CNY543mn in 2H25.
• 2H26F revenue forecastCNY2.7bnDrug sales are expected at CNY2.5bn, up 53% YoY.
• 2H26F net profit forecastCNY103mnContinuing the trend of returning to profitability.
• FY26F revenue forecastCNY5.083bnLowered from the previous forecast of CNY5.404bn.
• FY26F normalized net profit forecastCNY149mnLowered from the previous forecast of CNY723mn.
• FY27F revenue forecastCNY7.214bnThe previous forecast was CNY7.491bn.
• FY28F revenue forecastCNY9.762bnThe previous forecast was CNY9.998bn.
• Target priceHKD138.29Lowered from HKD142.50.
• Current priceHKD102.80As of 2026-07-23.
• Implied upside+34.5%Based on the target price and current price.
• Market capitalizationUSD12,077.0mnDisclosed in the report's key data table.
• 3-month ADTUSD183.2mnDisclosed in the report's key data table.

Impact & implications

The report's investment implication for Akeso is positive overall: in the short term, the return to profitability in 1H26F and the ramp-up in drug sales could improve market confidence in its commercialization capability; in the medium term, the HARMONI-3 data readout and the PDUFA decision are key catalysts for 2H26; on valuation, although the target price was lowered, it still implies substantial upside versus the current price.

Risks

• HARMONi 3 data may come in below expectations.
• Drug sales growth may be slower than Nomura expects.
• Other pipeline assets may encounter clinical setbacks.
• Collaboration revenue may come in below expectations or its recognition timing may change.
• Operating expenses higher than expected may weigh on earnings release.
• Achievement of the target price may be affected by the market, macro trends, and company earnings deviating from forecasts.

What to watch

• HARMONI-3 data readout.
• PDUFA decision.
• Sales ramp-up pace of cadonilimab and ivonescimab.
• Recognition timing of collaboration revenue from the ebronucimab licensing deal.
• Whether 1H26F gross margin and operating expenses meet Nomura's expectations.
• Whether FY26F to FY28F revenue and net profit forecasts continue to be revised.