U.S. retail enters a K-shaped economy: value-oriented retailers lead, while discretionary spending waits for inflation easing
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U.S. retail enters a K-shaped economy: value-oriented retailers lead, while discretionary spending waits for inflation easing
Bernstein says that after the pandemic, U.S. retail spending diverged sharply across income groups, with lower-income consumers squeezed by essential expenses such as housing, food, and healthcare, while value-oriented retailers like WMT and COST are more likely to gain share in a persistent inflation environment.
- From 2018 to mid-2024, cumulative real retail spending growth for the lowest-income group was about +8%, while it was close to +17% for the highest-income group, indicating clear decoupling in consumption growth.
- Low-income consumers spend roughly 30%-40% more than their income on average, and a larger share of their budget is consumed by essentials such as food, housing, and healthcare, leaving less room for savings and discretionary spending.
- Persistent inflation typically supports retail top-line growth, especially benefiting value retailers with stronger price advantage. The report views WMT and COST as the most likely to gain share in an inflationary environment.
- Rising shares of essential goods in sales create a negative gross margin dynamic for retailers with a higher discretionary orientation; if inflation normalizes, companies with greater discretionary exposure such as FIVE, DLTR, and TGT stand to benefit from a recovery in discretionary spending.
Report interpretation
Overview
The report examines the positioning of U.S. broad retail and hardlines retail in a K-shaped economy. Bernstein notes that before the pandemic, real retail spending growth across income groups moved broadly in the same direction, but became clearly disconnected afterward: growth for low-income and lower-education groups lagged significantly, and these groups were under greater pressure from inflation in essential costs such as housing, energy, food, and healthcare. For retailers, this environment offers top-line price support and share redistribution, but also puts pressure on discretionary spending and gross margins.
Core views
The core view is that U.S. retail demand is not weakening uniformly but is showing K-shaped divergence by income and education level. Low-income households have tighter cash flow, weaker savings capacity, and a rising share of spending on necessities, so they are more likely to cut back on entertainment, education, savings, and other discretionary categories. Higher-income households are relatively less affected by inflation, retaining stronger consumption and savings capacity. In this setting, value and membership-based retailers such as WMT and COST are more defensive and have higher share-gain potential due to their pricing perception and necessity-driven traffic; retailers with stronger discretionary positioning, including TGT, are under pressure in the short term but have recovery resilience when inflation declines and purchasing power rebounds.
Analysis framework
The report combines Federal Reserve-related research, Numerator retail consumption data, real retail spending indexes by income and education, income-adjusted CPI, consumer spending structure, and historical trends in same-store sales, market share, and gross margins of retailers to assess how post-pandemic U.S. consumption stratification affects different retail formats.
Methodology notes
Observes divergence in consumption growth, inflation pressure, and spending structure by income and education level.
The K-shaped framework is used to explain the post-pandemic split in consumption, savings, and inflation resilience between higher- and lower-income groups, and to infer category mix and share shifts across retailers.
Compares same-store sales, share, and gross margin performance of retailers during inflation, disinflation, and deflation periods.
Using historical data from different inflation phases between 2000 and 2024, the report assesses the relative advantage of value retailers under inflationary pressure and the generally adverse impact of inflation on gross margins.
Compares spending shares and changes across food, housing, healthcare, transportation, entertainment, education, savings, and other categories for different income groups.
This approach helps explain why lower-income groups are more easily squeezed by essential-goods inflation and why higher-income groups show greater resilience in discretionary spending and savings.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- WMTA value-oriented mass retailer that the report believes is most likely to gain share in a prolonged inflation environment.
- Strengths
- Strong price competitiveness and an ability to attract shoppers switching to lower-ticket purchasing during inflation, with share rising steadily since 2023.
- Weaknesses
- Inflation generally pressures retail gross margins, and a higher essentials mix may limit structural improvement.
- Comparison
- More defensive than more discretionary or less price-competitive peers such as Target.
- Risks
- A faster inflation decline, consumers shifting back to discretionary categories, or intensified competition could reduce its relative advantage.
- COSTA membership-based warehouse retailer that the report views as well positioned in a sustained inflation environment.
- Strengths
- Membership model and perceived value support traffic; club-format businesses have performed relatively well in the post-pandemic inflation period.
- Weaknesses
- Valuation is elevated, and inflation still poses pressure on industry-wide gross margins.
- Comparison
- Along with WMT, it is one of the value-oriented retailers most likely to gain share under inflation pressure.
- Risks
- Slowing membership growth, narrowing price advantage, or changes in shopping-down behavior.
- DGA dollar/discount retailer rated Outperform.
- Strengths
- Its low-price positioning can benefit as higher-income consumers seek value and engage in shopping downgrades.
- Weaknesses
- Its core low-income customer base is under significant cash-flow stress, potentially limiting basket size and discretionary-category performance.
- Comparison
- In the same dollar-store bucket as DLTR, the report gives DG a more constructive rating.
- Risks
- Further pressure on low-income consumers, cost inflation, or execution issues.
- LOWA home improvement retailer rated Outperform.
- Strengths
- A constructive rating, likely reflecting relative valuation or fundamental resilience.
- Weaknesses
- Home improvement demand is sensitive to interest rates, housing turnover, and large discretionary outlays.
- Comparison
- Rated more constructively than HD, which is rated Market-Perform.
- Risks
- Weak housing market, consumers delaying major projects, and inflation suppressing renovation demand.
- TGTA mass retailer with stronger discretionary exposure, rated Market-Perform.
- Strengths
- Has upside if inflation normalizes and discretionary demand recovers.
- Weaknesses
- The share of essential sales has increased by about 770 bps since 2019, exerting a negative impact on margin structure.
- Comparison
- Has weaker value-driven competitiveness than WMT; the report notes part of WMT's recent share gains appear to come at the expense of retailers such as Target.
- Risks
- Ongoing compression of discretionary spending by low-income consumers, heavier promotion activity, and margin pressure.
- FIVEA discretionary small-ticket retailer rated Market-Perform.
- Strengths
- If inflation eases, recovery in small-ticket discretionary categories could resume first, and FIVE has relative resilience.
- Weaknesses
- Current low-income consumer cash-flow weakness keeps discretionary demand under pressure.
- Comparison
- Part of the set that would benefit more when discretionary recovery emerges, together with DLTR and TGT.
- Risks
- Purchasing power recovers more slowly than expected, weak traffic, or category mix mismatch.
- DLTRA dollar-store and discretionary-exposure hybrid rated Market-Perform.
- Strengths
- Can benefit from shopping down, and may also benefit when discretionary spending recovers.
- Weaknesses
- Low-income customer pressure and merchandise mix may limit near-term performance.
- Comparison
- The report rates DG as Outperform while rating DLTR as Market-Perform.
- Risks
- Further contraction by low-income consumers, competitive intensity, and execution or cost pressures.
- HDA home improvement retailer rated Market-Perform.
- Strengths
- Strong category leadership with notable long-term brand and scale advantages.
- Weaknesses
- Large discretionary and home-improvement spending is sensitive to rates and the housing cycle.
- Comparison
- Has a more cautious rating than LOW.
- Risks
- Weak housing turnover, consumers delaying projects, and inflation-sensitive margin effects.
Key data
- Real retail spending growth for the lowest-income groupCumulative about +8% through mid-2024After inflation adjustment, it is materially below that of the highest-income group.
- Real retail spending growth for the highest-income groupClose to +17% through mid-2024Roughly double the growth rate of the lowest-income group.
- Low-income consumer spending vs income relationshipAverage spending is about 30%-40% higher than incomeIndicates cash-flow constraint and savings pressure.
- Walmart US essential sales mix change+679 bpsCalculated as share of net sales since 2019.
- Target essential sales mix change+770 bpsExerts a negative gross margin structural impact on more discretionary-oriented retailers.
- Costco essential sales mix change+118 bpsCalculated as share of net sales since 2019.
- Rating setCOST, DG, WMT, and LOW are rated Outperform; DLTR, FIVE, TGT, and HD are rated Market-PerformThe report covers multiple names and rates them on Bernstein's 12-month relative performance framework.
Impact & implications
The investment implication is that opportunities in U.S. retail are more about format and customer-segment differentiation than simple aggregate growth calls. In a prolonged inflation phase, value-oriented retailers with strong essential-traffic and strong price perception are more likely to attract footfall and gain share, while retailers with higher discretionary exposure face short-term demand and margin-structure pressure. If inflation retreats and real purchasing power recovers, discretionary recovery may begin with higher-income households and small-ticket categories, improving earnings sensitivity for related retailers.
Risks
- Inflation pressure lasts longer than expected, further compressing discretionary spending power among low-income consumers.
- If inflation falls quickly or real purchasing power rebounds, the relative advantage of value retailers may weaken.
- Industry gross margins may be jointly pressured by cost inflation, intensified promotions, and category mix shifts.
- Deteriorating cash flow in lower-income households may create basket-size and trip-frequency pressure even for low-price retailers.
- The report is based on historical inflation cycles and grouped consumer data, while future policy, employment, wealth effects, and rate changes could alter the consumption path.
What to watch
- Inflation trends in essentials such as housing, food, energy, and healthcare in the United States.
- Whether real retail spending growth among different income groups re-converges.
- Traffic, same-store sales, and market share changes for value retailers such as WMT, COST, and DG.
- Category mix and margin recovery for discretionary-exposed retailers such as TGT, FIVE, and DLTR.
- How consumer savings rates, credit availability, employment, and wage growth affect purchasing power among lower-income households.
- Marginal shifts in same-store sales and gross margins during disinflation or deflation stages.