DESS Becomes an SNEC Highlight Amid Weak Solar Sentiment

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' conference takeaways from the 2026 Shanghai SNEC exhibition. Goldman attended the exhibition from June 3 to 5, held meetings with management teams of eight listed solar companies, and spoke with nearly 20 on-site technical and sales managers as well as industry experts. The report's core observation is a clear divergence in industry sentiment: the DESS exhibition area and booths were more active, while mainstream module companies had smaller booths and some second- and third-tier manufacturers were absent, reflecting continued weak sentiment across the traditional solar core value chain.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes DESS was the highlight of this SNEC. After strong order growth in 2Q26, orders are still expected to keep improving in 2H26, and growth is no longer dependent on a single region. On the solar demand side, there is a potential inflection point in 2H26: China installation expectations have been revised upward, and demand across multiple overseas regions has been strong year to date. However, pricing remains the main pressure point, especially low-price strategies by second-tier module makers and the recovery of upstream polysilicon supply, which may weigh on industry profitability.

Analysis framework

The report uses conference research and value-chain interviews, combining changes in exhibition booth presence, management guidance, feedback from sales and technical personnel, and Goldman Sachs' views on covered companies to distill signals on DESS orders, margins, solar installation demand, module pricing, and upstream supply pressure.

Methodology notes

• conference research2026 SNEC industry chain interviews

  Identify marginal changes in the industry through exhibition observations, meetings with listed company management teams, and interviews with industry chain experts.

  The sample includes management teams from eight listed solar companies and nearly 20 on-site technical and sales managers as well as industry experts, with a focus on DESS, modules, upstream polysilicon, and overseas demand.

• company factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs compares stock characteristics across dimensions such as Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated.

  This framework comes from the disclosure appendix and explains how Goldman Sachs forms stock factor profiles using indicators such as forecast growth, returns, and valuation multiples.

• M&A scoringM&A Rank

  Goldman Sachs uses a 1-to-3 scale to assess the probability that a covered company becomes an acquisition target.

  This explanation belongs to the disclosure methodology: 1 indicates a higher M&A probability, 2 a medium probability, and 3 a lower probability; it does not constitute the main investment conclusion of this report.

• database toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs' proprietary database used for financial history, forecasts, and ratio analysis.

  The report appendix explains that Quantum can be used for deep single-company analysis or cross-company, cross-industry, and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• DESS/BESS

  A relative highlight of this SNEC, benefiting from order recovery across multiple regions.

  Strengths

  Orders grew 60%-70% QoQ in 2Q, with guidance for further QoQ growth in 2H; leading BESS companies are currently running at full capacity utilization; margins are expected to remain stable.

  Weaknesses

  Further order upside depends on each company's capacity expansion progress, and rising battery costs still need to be continuously offset through design and density optimization.

  Comparison

  Compared with the traditional solar core value chain, DESS booths and sentiment were stronger.

  Risks

  Further increases in lithium carbonate costs, slower-than-expected capacity expansion, or an unsustainable regional demand recovery.

• Cell & Module / LONGI

  A relatively preferred segment in Goldman Sachs' solar value chain view, with LONGI rated Buy.

  Strengths

  Benefiting from upward revisions to China's 2026 installation outlook and strong overseas demand, with a potential demand inflection point in 2H26.

  Weaknesses

  Module pricing is being disrupted by low-price strategies from second-tier manufacturers.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs explicitly prefers Cell & Module over Glass & Poly.

  Risks

  Weaker price discipline, intensifying overseas competition, and demand decline in some regions.

• Glass & Poly / Flat Glass Group / Tongwei

  A relatively cautious segment for Goldman Sachs, with Flat Glass Group A/H and Tongwei rated Sell.

  Strengths

  If the solar demand inflection point materializes, they may still benefit from a broader increase in value-chain volumes.

  Weaknesses

  Upstream polysilicon pricing pressure is more severe, affected by inventory digestion and the resumption of tier-one capacity from June onward.

  Comparison

  Compared with Cell & Module, Goldman Sachs is less favorable on Glass & Poly.

  Risks

  Release of new polysilicon supply, inventory digestion pressure, and pressure on profitability as overseas projects approach breakeven.

Key data

• Meeting time and venueJune 3-5, 2026, Shanghai SNECThe report date is June 8, 2026.
• Research coverageManagement teams of 8 listed solar companies; nearly 20 on-site technical and sales managers and industry expertsCovering multiple segments of the solar industry chain.
• DESS order trend2Q26 QoQ growth of 60%-70%; guidance for continued QoQ growth in 2H26Growth comes from multiple regions, and management believes this round of demand recovery is more sustainable.
• DESS cost reduction signalUnit production cost can fall by about 20% after upgrading from 180Ah to 340AhHigher battery costs are expected to be absorbed through improved battery density and product design optimization.
• China 2026 installation outlook220-240GW; Goldman Sachs forecast 235GW; about 200GW at the beginning of the yearImplies more than 30% YoY growth in 2H26.
• Strong overseas demand regionsAfrica, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, AustraliaThe Middle East and Brazil were mentioned as having potential downside.
• Covered company ratings and price informationLONGI Buy Rmb13.13; Flat Glass Group (A) Sell Rmb11.13; Flat Glass Group (H) Sell HK$7.76; Tongwei Sell Rmb13.60Source: the rating and pricing information disclosed in the report.

Impact & implications

In investment terms, Goldman Sachs believes solar demand may reach an inflection point in 2H26, with upside risk to overseas demand; in terms of value-chain positioning, it prefers Cell & Module, especially LONGI, while relatively avoiding Glass & Poly, as they are more directly exposed to upstream pricing pressure, inventory digestion, and the recovery of new supply.

Risks

• Second-tier module companies may again adopt aggressive low-price strategies, potentially dragging down module prices and industry profitability.
• Competition in overseas markets is intensifying, and some Middle East projects are approaching breakeven.
• Upstream polysilicon faces pricing pressure from inventory digestion and the resumption of tier-one capacity.
• If rising lithium carbonate costs cannot be fully offset by higher battery density and design optimization, DESS margins may come under pressure.
• Incremental DESS orders in 2H depend on the capacity expansion progress of leading companies.
• Demand in the Middle East and Brazil may decline, creating divergence versus other strong overseas regions.
• Although the impact of Document No. 136 is lower than expected, policy changes and shifts in distributed solar economics still need to be monitored.

What to watch

• The QoQ order trend for DESS in 2H26 and the capacity expansion progress of leading companies.
• Changes in lithium carbonate prices, and the actual cost-offset effect of battery upgrades such as from 180Ah to 340Ah.
• Module price discipline, especially the game between tier-one companies maintaining prices and second-tier companies cutting prices to win orders.
• Whether China's 2026 solar installations fall within the 220-240GW range and approach Goldman Sachs' 235GW forecast.
• Whether demand in Africa, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Australia can remain strong, while monitoring whether the Middle East and Brazil continue to weaken.
• The impact of the resumption of tier-one polysilicon capacity from June onward on upstream prices and inventory digestion.
• Subsequent changes in ratings, prices, and earnings expectations for LONGI, Flat Glass Group, and Tongwei.