Hong Kong and Mainland China real estate high-frequency charts: Mainland second-hand transactions remain volatile, and Hong Kong supply-demand and Mainland buyer share are key watchpoints

Overview

This report covers the Mainland China and Hong Kong residential real estate markets, with a focus on secondary transactions, official registration transactions, developer contract sales, first-tier city prices, listings and inventory, Hong Kong transaction volume, primary market absorption, Mainland buyer share, cross-border remittance rules, rent index, and the relationship between Hong Kong house prices, Hang Seng Index, and months of inventory. Sources include Iceberg Index, NBS, Centaline, CREIS, and Hong Kong residential market-related data.

Core views

The core message is that the Mainland real estate market remains in a recovery observation phase: high-frequency secondary transaction and first-tier city price indicators show marginal improvement, but listing volume, inventory, and cumulative declines over the past several years indicate that pressure has not fully been removed. The Hong Kong residential market is simultaneously affected by primary pricing, secondary transactions, rents, inventory months, and Mainland buyer demand. In the near term, whether transactions can stay stable, whether absorption rates remain steady, and whether potential supply can be absorbed should be monitored.

Analysis framework

The report uses a chart-set format, placing high-frequency transaction data, official sales registrations, developer contract sales, house price indices, listing inventories, rental indices, and buyer structure data in one framework to cross-check market warmth. The Mainland section focuses on secondary transaction activity in 26 cities and 8 cities, first-tier city prices, and inventory; the Hong Kong section focuses on CCL prices, transaction volume, primary launch first-day absorption, weekend viewing activity, Mainland buyer share, non-HKID buyer share, and future supply.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency real estate trackingIceberg Index

  Real-time secondary transactions, listings, and secondary listing prices

  Used to monitor secondary transaction volume, listing volume, and listing price changes in Mainland major cities, helping to complement lagging official data.

• Price and transaction validationCross-validation of official data and broker indices

  Comparison of NBS, Centaline, sales registrations, and real-time transaction data

  By comparing official housing prices, Centaline secondary prices, sales registration, and real-time transactions, this assesses whether prices and activity show consistent recovery.

• Inventory cycle analysisMonths of inventory and potential supply

  Assessing inventory digestion pressure by current sales pace

  The report compares primary inventory, secondary listings, and potential supply in Hong Kong over the next 3 to 4 years against sales volumes to evaluate pricing and absorption pressure.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mainland China real estate developers

  Affected by Mainland transactions, prices, inventory, and contract sales

  Strengths

  Some first-tier city price metrics are showing marginal improvement, and high-frequency transaction data can provide faster signals.

  Weaknesses

  The cumulative three-year decline in secondary listing prices is large, and listing volume and inventory may still suppress prices.

  Comparison

  Compared with Hong Kong, Mainland data emphasizes city-level divergence and policy-driven recovery timing.

  Risks

  Recovery in sales not sustained, prices turning weak again, developer contract sales below expectations.

• Hong Kong residential developers and real estate stocks

  Affected by Hong Kong transactions, primary absorption, rents, inventory, and Mainland buyer demand

  Strengths

  Rising shares of non-HKID and Mainland buyer demand could provide support if rent indices and transaction recovery improve.

  Weaknesses

  Potential supply over the next 3 to 4 years is large, and primary-market absorption is highly sensitive to pricing.

  Comparison

  Compared with Mainland China, Hong Kong is more influenced by financial markets, cross-border capital, and the local inventory cycle together.

  Risks

  Slow absorption of primary supply, declining second-hand prices, and interest rate or equity market volatility affecting purchasing power.

• Real estate-linked REITs and income properties

  Affected by rent indices, housing prices, and macro risk appetite

  Strengths

  Rent data serves as an observable indicator of cash-flow resilience.

  Weaknesses

  If house prices and transactions weaken, valuation sentiment may come under pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with developers, income properties are less sensitive to the sales cycle, but still affected by interest rates and asset pricing.

  Risks

  Slowing rent growth, elevated interest rates persisting, and downward valuation revisions of assets.

Key data

• 8-city real-time secondary weekly salesAs of the week ending 2026-07-11, secondary sales in 8 cities were about 17,974 unitsFrom the Iceberg 8-city real-time secondary weekly sales table.
• First-tier city secondary pricesIn May 2026, first-tier city secondary housing prices in NBS improved month-on-month by about +0.3%The same table shows the change turned from negative to positive between February and May 2026 and has maintained small gains.
• Shanghai secondary listing price by segmentYTD segment 0-2 million RMB is about +4.0%, but around -38.4% over the past three yearsLower price tiers improved year to date, but cumulative three-year declines remain substantial.
• Hong Kong primary launch first-day absorptionIn the sample over the past month, 576 units were launched and 368 were sold, giving an absorption rate of about 64%The table also shows average pricing was about +3% versus the prior period and about +23% versus the secondary market.
• Hong Kong non-HKID individual buyersIn FY24/25, they accounted for 5.5% by transaction count and 7.2% by transaction valueA clear increase from 1.6% and 2.0% in FY23/24.
• Hong Kong potential future supplyPotential private residential supply over the next 3 to 4 years is about 101,000 units, with 2026E primary sales around 22,000 unitsShows that supply absorption remains an important pressure variable for the Hong Kong residential market.

Impact & implications

For investors, this report is more suitable as a baseline for tracking real estate sector conditions rather than a single-investment recommendation. If Mainland high-frequency transactions continue to improve and support price stabilization, sentiment toward developers and property-related assets may improve; if Hong Kong transactions and absorption fail to absorb future supply, house prices and developer margins may still remain under pressure. Mainland buyer share, non-HKID buyer share, and cross-border capital arrangements are important marginal variables for demand in the Hong Kong residential market.

Risks

• Mainland secondary price improvement may be only a short-term rebound and not yet confirmed as broad stabilization.
• Potential supply in Hong Kong over the next several years is large, and if primary sales are insufficient, months of inventory could continue to suppress prices.
• Primary launch absorption is sensitive to short-term factors such as discounting, pricing, and weather, and one month samples may not be fully representative.
• Classifying Mainland buyer origin through name pinyin matching may produce classification errors and does not fully equate to true residence location or identity.
• Cross-border capital arrangements and regulatory changes may affect Hong Kong residential demand.

What to watch

• Whether high-frequency transaction volume of 26-city and 8-city secondary housing continues to improve year-over-year.
• Whether month-on-month NBS and Centaline prices in first-tier cities remain continuously positive.
• Changes in top-100 developer contract sales year-over-year and versus four-year average levels.
• Hong Kong primary launch first-day absorption rates and pricing premium/discount versus the secondary market.
• Whether the share of Hong Kong non-HKID buyers and Mainland buyers continues to rise by value and by unit count.
• Absorption pace between Hong Kong potential supply over the next 3 to 4 years and 2026E primary sales.