Following the sharp drop in humanoid robotics sentiment, Bernstein sees more attractive entry points in related stocks

Overview

This report is Bernstein's June-July 2026 update of Asia Emerging Robotics: The Barometer, covering key events in the humanoid robotics industry, market sentiment, monthly fundamental data, and related stock ratings and valuations. The report focuses on U.S. restrictions on Chinese humanoid robots, Tesla Optimus production progress, Boston Dynamics' Atlas demonstration, Chinese manufacturers' latest developments showcased at WAIC, and the industry's shift in focus from movement capabilities toward robot "brains" and practical applications.

Core views

The report's core view is constructive: in the short term, the humanoid robotics sector has been affected by technology stock selling, negative policy news, and concerns over Tesla vertical integration, causing sentiment and valuations to decline significantly. However, Bernstein believes this creates attractive entry opportunities in humanoid robotics-related stocks. At the industry level, commercialization remains in its early stages, but leading Chinese manufacturers have entered a new phase of rapid iteration, trial-and-error, and real-world validation.

Analysis framework

The report combines industry event tracking, market sentiment indicators, company-specific monthly operating data, and valuation methodologies. Fundamental data include China's industrial robots, service robots, robot vacuum sales, new energy vehicle wholesale volume, ADAS LiDAR shipments and market share, air suspension, air-conditioner sales, and raw material prices such as copper, aluminum, and steel. Valuation primarily uses DCF, with forward PE as a reference.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodDCF

  Discounted cash flow

  The report primarily applies DCF valuation to covered companies. Key assumptions include WACC and terminal growth rates, with contributions from existing core businesses and robotics businesses incorporated into long-term forecasts.

• Valuation referencePE

  Forward price-to-earnings reference

  The report uses the forward PE at the end of 2026 implied by target prices as a cross-check, including approximately 39x for Hesai ADR, 120x for Leader Drive, 32x for Tuopu, 35x for Sanhua, and 30x for Shuanghuan.

• Industry trackingBarometer

  Monthly barometer of the robotics industry

  The framework tracks changes in the health of the Asian emerging robotics industry chain and market expectations through key events, sentiment changes, and high-frequency monthly data.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hesai Group (HSAI.US, 2525.HK)

  Long-range ADAS LiDAR supplier linked to the robotics and intelligent-driving perception chains

  Strengths

  Long-range ADAS LiDAR shipments increased 82% year over year in June, with market share holding at 45%; rated Outperform.

  Weaknesses

  Earnings improvement still requires validation, and customer share stability remains uncertain.

  Comparison

  Compared with other names, Hesai's monthly growth data are more directly reflected in LiDAR shipments and market share.

  Risks

  Serious accidents caused by LiDAR failures, escalating U.S. sanctions, loss of share at key customers, and slower-than-expected earnings improvement.

• Ningbo Tuopu Group Co., Ltd. (601689.CH)

  Auto parts and potential robotics beneficiary linked to Tesla and the valuation premium of humanoid robotics

  Strengths

  Rated Outperform; target price CNY 75.00; benefits from long-term contributions from new energy vehicles and robotics.

  Weaknesses

  Air suspension shipments declined 5% year over year in June, weaker than the May data.

  Comparison

  Like Sanhua, Tuopu is affected by expectations for Tesla's automotive and robotics businesses, but its air suspension data are more volatile.

  Risks

  Tesla automotive or robotics progress below expectations, declining investor interest due to a lack of breakthroughs in humanoid robotics, a slowdown in the auto market, and geopolitical risks such as tariffs or export controls on magnetic materials.

• Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co., Ltd. (2050.HK, 002050.CH)

  Thermal management supplier exposed to new energy vehicles, air conditioners, and dedicated robotics thermal management solutions

  Strengths

  Exposure to automotive thermal management, air conditioners, and potential robotics thermal management solutions; target prices are available for both A-shares and H-shares.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Market-Perform; air-conditioner sales are under pressure, while copper and aluminum costs remain elevated year over year.

  Comparison

  Compared with Tuopu, Sanhua is more affected by the air-conditioner cycle and copper and aluminum raw material prices.

  Risks

  Tesla automotive or robotics progress below expectations, slowing new energy vehicle and air-conditioner sales, and geopolitical and raw-material export-control impacts.

• Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co., Ltd. (002472.CH)

  Driveline and gear-related company benefiting from demand for new energy vehicles, robot vacuums, and robot drivetrains

  Strengths

  Rated Outperform; June new energy vehicle wholesale volume, robot vacuum sales, and industrial robot output all maintained high year-over-year growth.

  Weaknesses

  Execution risks remain in European expansion and the upgrade of EV gears from parallel-axis to coaxial layouts.

  Comparison

  Valuation pressure may be lower than for Leader Drive, while Shuanghuan also benefits from vehicle- and robotics-related demand.

  Risks

  Tesla robotics underperforming expectations, no major breakthrough in humanoid robotics, slowing new energy vehicle and robot vacuum sales, and delays in European expansion or EV gear upgrades.

• Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd. (688017.CH)

  Harmonic reducer supplier linked to the actuator chains of industrial and humanoid robots

  Strengths

  China's industrial robot output increased 28% year over year in June, while robot reducer output rose 57% year over year in the first half.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Underperform; the current price of CNY 303.65 is above the target price of CNY 115.00, indicating significant valuation pressure.

  Comparison

  Although industry data are strong, the report's rating is materially weaker than those of Hesai, Tuopu, and Shuanghuan.

  Risks

  Entry into the supply chains of leading humanoid robot manufacturers, policy support, increased share among global industrial robot customers, or successful commercialization of roller screws could create upside risk.

Key data

• China new energy vehicle wholesale volumeJune 2026: +22% year over yearMay: +13% year over year; xEVs include BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and others.
• China robot vacuum salesJune 2026: +23% year over yearMay: +0.3% year over year.
• China industrial robot outputJune 2026: +28% year over yearMay also increased 28% year over year.
• Hesai long-range ADAS LiDAR shipmentsJune 2026: +82% year over yearMay: +69% year over year; June market share was 45%, unchanged from May.
• Tuopu air suspension shipmentsJune 2026: -5% year over yearMay: +39% year over year.
• China domestic and export air-conditioner salesJune 2026: -7% year over yearMay: -11% year over year; based on production plans, third-quarter 2026 sales are expected to decline 13% year over year.
• China robot reducer outputFirst half of 2026: +57% year over year2025: +64% year over year.
• Copper priceJuly 2026: +31% year over yearJune: +32% year over year.
• Aluminum priceJuly 2026: +11% year over yearJune: +16% year over year.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report believes that the risk-reward profile of related assets has improved following the pullback in humanoid robotics sentiment. Beneficiaries include Hesai, Tuopu, and Shuanghuan, all rated Outperform. However, individual companies continue to face differentiated risks related to Tesla's progress, supply-chain vertical integration, geopolitical policy, the auto market, and raw-material volatility.

Risks

• Further escalation of U.S. restrictions on Chinese humanoid robots or related supply chains.
• Tesla Optimus or automotive business progress falling short of investor expectations.
• A lack of major technological or commercial breakthroughs in humanoid robotics, leading to declining investor interest.
• Slowing downstream demand for new energy vehicles, air conditioners, robot vacuums, and other products.
• Rising prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum eroding margins.
• Geopolitical risks including tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on magnetic materials.
• Loss of market share at key customers or slower-than-expected earnings improvement.

What to watch

• Tesla Optimus Gen 3 production ramp and the direction of Gen 4 vertical integration.
• New U.S. restrictions on Chinese robotics companies and supply chains.
• Real-world validation and application rollout of humanoid robots by Chinese manufacturers following WAIC.
• Monthly data for China's industrial robots, service robots, robot vacuums, and new energy vehicles.
• Changes in Hesai's long-range ADAS LiDAR shipments and market share.
• Tuopu air suspension shipments, Sanhua air-conditioner demand, and copper and aluminum price trends.
• Leader Drive's breakthroughs in harmonic reducers, roller screws, and leading humanoid robot customers.