Accelink Technologies: Growth Driven by AI Optical Network Demand and IDM Capabilities; Nomura Maintains Buy and Raises Target Price

Overview

This report is Nomura's earnings review and valuation update on Accelink Technologies (Accelink Technologies, 002281.SS). The report notes that FY25 and 1Q26 results showed strong revenue and earnings growth, with continued gross margin improvement. Nomura believes that driven by China's AI data center investment, optical network upgrades, and recovering telecom demand, the company's optical module and optical device businesses have room for accelerated growth.

Core views

The core view is that, as a leading Chinese supplier of optical transceivers and optical devices, Accelink Technologies is well positioned to benefit from the AI optical network investment cycle; the company's IDM model gives it in-house capabilities in optical chips and key devices, helping improve competitiveness amid component shortages and the trend toward domestic supply chain self-sufficiency. The report expects the access and data business to be driven by AI data center demand, while the transmission business should also benefit from improved optical device demand and a telecom market recovery.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes disclosed FY25 and 1Q26 results, revenue trends by business line, gross margin changes, comparisons with WIND consensus, industry optical device market share data, and valuation multiples. Nomura revised up FY26-27F revenue and earnings forecasts and derives the target price using FY27F EPS and a target P/E multiple.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodP/E multiple valuation

  52x FY27F EPS

  The target price of CNY158.50 is based on 52x 2027F EPS of CNY3.05, with the valuation multiple matching FY26-28F earnings CAGR of 52%.

• Earnings forecastBusiness-segment forecast revision

  Raised revenue, gross margin, and earnings forecasts

  The report raises FY26-27F revenue forecasts by 8%-18%, raises gross margin forecasts by 0.5-1.3 percentage points, and raises FY26-27F earnings forecasts by 4%-28%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Accelink Technologies (002281.SS)

  Covered target in the report

  Strengths

  A leading Chinese supplier of optical transceivers and optical devices, with an IDM model and in-house capabilities in optical chips/key devices, benefiting from AI data centers, optical network investment, and domestic substitution trends.

  Weaknesses

  FY25 net profit was below Nomura's forecast, which the report believes may have been affected by costs related to capacity expansion; there is still room for improvement in corporate governance, including shareholder returns.

  Comparison

  Nomura's FY26-27F revenue forecasts are 6%-8% above WIND consensus, and its earnings forecasts are 0%-14% above consensus, reflecting a more optimistic view on demand from data centers and the telecom market.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected demand for optical devices/optical modules in data communications and telecom markets, slower-than-expected optical chip R&D progress, worse-than-expected price competition and gross margin dilution, and escalating technology sanctions or geopolitical risks.

Key data

• RatingBuyMaintains Buy rating.
• Target priceCNY158.50Raised from CNY80.
• Closing priceCNY131.68As of April 23, 2026.
• Implied upside+20.4%Based on target price and closing price.
• FY25 revenue growth+44% y-yFY25 revenue was 3% above Nomura's forecast.
• FY25 earnings growth+43% y-yFY25 net profit was 9% below Nomura's forecast, which the report believes may be related to higher costs associated with capacity expansion.
• 1Q26 revenue/earnings growth+25%/+60% y-yQoQ figures were -18% and +6%, respectively.
• 1Q26 gross margin26.8%Up 2.7 percentage points QoQ, mainly driven by an improved optical transceiver product mix.
• FY27F EPSCNY3.05Valuation basis for the target price.
• FY26-28F earnings CAGR52%Used to support the 52x FY27F EPS valuation multiple.

Impact & implications

If the report's assumptions materialize, the investment thesis for Accelink Technologies will extend from traditional telecom optical communications demand to AI data center optical module demand, while also benefiting from domestic supply chain self-sufficiency and the buildup of high-end optical chip/device capabilities. Higher contributions from 800G/1.6T optical transceivers are expected to drive revenue growth and gross margin expansion, but valuation already reflects high growth expectations, so demand, R&D progress, and pricing competition will need to be continuously validated.

Risks

• Demand for optical devices and optical modules in data communications and telecom markets is lower than expected.
• Optical chipset R&D progress is slower than expected.
• Price competition worsens and leads to greater-than-expected gross margin dilution.
• Technology industry sanctions or geopolitical risks escalate beyond expectations.

What to watch

• Whether demand for AI data center optical modules remains strong, especially contributions from 800G and 1.6T products.
• The revenue growth rate of the access and data business and changes in its share of total revenue.
• Whether the transmission business is driven by a telecom demand recovery and improved demand for DCI optical devices.
• Whether gross margin can sustain the improvement trend seen in 4Q25 and 1Q26.
• Progress in R&D and self-supply capabilities for key devices such as optical chips, EML, VCSEL, DFB, and PD/APD.
• Whether the valuation multiple still matches expected earnings growth.