J.P. Morgan maintains ASMPT at Overweight with a target price of HK$225

Overview

This is a results review and investment view update on ASMPT Ltd by J.P. Morgan. The report maintains an Overweight rating and a Jun-27 target price of HK$225, primarily because the company's 2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance exceeded expectations, while Advanced Packaging, TCB, Photonics, mainstream SEMI and SMT all improved simultaneously.

Core views

The report's core view is that ASMPT's earnings growth is being driven jointly by revenue recovery and cost control, with operating leverage being clearly released; Logic TCB has strong growth potential in C2S and future C2W applications; Memory TCB will restart growth in 2H26 as HBM4 order shipments resume; Photonics is becoming a new business driver; and mainstream SEMI and SMT will continue to improve, supported by AI servers, PMICs and recovering conventional demand.

Analysis framework

The report combines results review, management guidance, order and revenue momentum, growth drivers by business segment, valuation multiples and earnings forecast revisions. For valuation, it uses approximately 28x 12-month forward EPS, corresponding to a Jun-27 target price of HK$225.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods12-month forward P/E

  Target price based on approximately 28x 12-month forward EPS

  J.P. Morgan says the Jun-27 target price of HK$225 is based on approximately 28x 12-month forward EPS, a multiple roughly in line with the past 10-year average.

• Earnings forecastsEPS upgrades

  Earnings forecast revisions

  The report raises its 2026/27/28 EPS forecasts by 7%/12%/9%, reflecting stronger revenue momentum and improved operating leverage.

• Value-chain analysisAdvanced Packaging and Photonics drivers

  Expansion in demand for advanced packaging, TCB and photonics packaging

  The report focuses on the impact of technological changes involving HBM4, SoIC, Chiplet, C2S, C2W, CPO and pluggable optical modules on ASMPT's equipment demand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK)

  The covered company, rated Overweight.

  Strengths

  Strong operating leverage, high TCB market share, rapid Photonics growth, improving SEMI and SMT orders, and AI-related demand support.

  Weaknesses

  Memory TCB declined year on year in 1H26 due to delayed HBM4 shipments from major Korean customers; mainstream end-market demand has not yet fully recovered.

  Comparison

  The valuation target is based on approximately 28x 12-month forward EPS, which the report says is close to the past 10-year average.

  Risks

  A weaker macro environment in 2026 could affect the sustainability of the mainstream semiconductor recovery.

• ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC

  Mentioned as a reference company related to AI accelerators and HBM/advanced packaging trends.

  Strengths

  AMD MI450 is viewed by the report as one of the early products moving toward SoIC/Chiplet-related directions.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide an independent rating or earnings analysis of AMD.

  Comparison

  The relationship with ASMPT primarily concerns advanced packaging technology paths and equipment demand, rather than peer valuation comparisons.

  Risks

  If the pace of related technology migration is slower than expected, the release of C2W TCB demand could be affected.

Key data

• RatingOverweightThe report maintains its OW rating.
• Target priceHK$225.00The Jun-27 target price is unchanged.
• Current priceHK$136.90As of July 29, 2026.
• 2026/27/28 EPS upgrades7% / 12% / 9%Reflecting stronger revenue momentum and improved operating leverage.
• 2026/27/28 adjusted EPSHK$4.58 / HK$7.36 / HK$8.84FYE December forecasts.
• 2026/27/28 revenue forecastsHK$19,615mn / HK$24,586mn / HK$27,281mnCorresponding year-on-year growth of 38.7% / 25.3% / 11.0%.
• Photonics revenueUS$75mn1H26 revenue approximately tripled year on year.
• Operating margin forecasts14% / 16% / 17%Corresponding 2026/27/28 OPM forecasts.

Impact & implications

If the report's assessment materializes, ASMPT's earnings leverage will be jointly driven by demand for advanced packaging equipment, AI-related optical module packaging, mainstream SEMI recovery and SMT backlog conversion. Maintaining a high target price indicates that J.P. Morgan believes the current share price does not fully reflect the medium- to long-term growth opportunities in TCB and Photonics.

Risks

• A weaker-than-expected macro environment in 2026 could affect the sustainability of the mainstream semiconductor recovery.
• If HBM4-related tool shipments remain delayed, the recovery in Memory TCB revenue may fall short of expectations.
• A decline in future HBM stack heights or limited demand for 16 Hi could constrain the upside potential for TCB tool demand.
• If the ramp-up of Photonics and CPO is slower than expected, the new growth curve may take longer to materialize.
• Expenses may rise sequentially in 2H26, and costs such as commissions could partially offset operating leverage.

What to watch

• The acceleration of Memory TCB orders and revenue in 2H26.
• The sustainability of Logic C2S orders from OSAT customers and the pace of breakthroughs in C2W adoption alongside SoIC and Chiplet packaging.
• The contribution of 800G/1.6T pluggable optical modules and CPO projects to Photonics revenue.
• Support from mainstream SEMI and SMT orders, backlog delivery and AI server demand.
• Whether operating margins can remain on the report's forecast path of 14%/16%/17% for 2026/27/28.