Goldman Sachs weekly tracking of China economic activity: property transactions improve, travel indicators weaken, and the energy price shock remains the main focus

Overview

This is a weekly China economic activity and policy tracking report published by Goldman Sachs on May 15, 2026. The report states that it tracks four groups of high-frequency indicators: consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy, and that it has shifted to a weekly publication cadence because of the greater impact of energy supply shocks on China economic activity. The body text in the current input is limited, but the chart information covers key indicators such as real estate transactions, flights, congestion, energy, and commodity prices.

Core views

Based on the visible evidence, high-frequency real estate transactions have improved, with both 30-city first-hand home sales and 16-city used-home sales above the same period in 2025; however, travel indicators are under pressure, with domestic flight volume down year on year, flight cancellation rates rising sharply, and the traffic congestion index slightly below last year’s level. On the price side, rising Brent prices have driven a clear rebound in China gasoline and diesel prices, imported crude oil, imported refined oil, exported refined oil, and some chemical product prices, suggesting that an energy supply shock may still affect macro activity through cost and trade price channels.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency indicator tracking approach, observing real estate transactions, domestic flights, flight cancellation rates, traffic congestion, port container throughput, and energy and commodity price indices on a weekly basis, and comparing them with the same periods in 2019, 2024, or 2025 to capture marginal changes in China economic activity.

Methodology notes

• Macroeconomic high-frequency trackingChina Economic Activity and Policy Tracking

  Observe macro activity using weekly high-frequency indicators

  The report tracks consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy in separate groups, focusing on comparing current readings with historical same-period or prior-year levels.

• Year-on-year comparisonyear-on-year comparison

  Use the same period in 2025 as the main comparison base

  The latest labels on multiple charts explicitly show changes relative to 2025, used to gauge the strength or weakness of current 2026 activity.

• Price shock analysisenergy-supply shock tracking

  Track the impact of energy supply shocks on economic activity and prices

  The report says that because of the higher energy supply shock, China economic activity needs closer observation, so the tracking frequency has been raised to weekly.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China real estate activity

  High-frequency transaction indicators reflect marginal changes in property demand

  Strengths

  Both first-hand and used-home transactions are above the same period in 2025, showing a short-term improvement in sales.

  Weaknesses

  First-hand home sales remain far below most of 2019, and the long-term recovery strength is still limited.

  Comparison

  30-city first-hand home sales were about +6.9% year on year versus 2025, and 16-city used-home sales were about +25.2% year on year versus 2025.

  Risks

  The recovery in property transactions may not be stable; if policy support weakens or household expectations soften, the improvement in sales could reverse.

• China travel and transportation activity

  Flights, cancellation rates, and congestion indices reflect the strength of consumption and mobility

  Strengths

  Domestic flight volumes once recovered to relatively high levels after the Spring Festival.

  Weaknesses

  Flight volume fell sharply in mid-May, cancellation rates rose significantly, and the congestion index was slightly below the same period last year.

  Comparison

  Domestic flight volume was about -12.7% year on year versus 2025, and the flight cancellation rate was about 12.9 percentage points higher than in 2025.

  Risks

  Weather, operational disruptions, or weakening demand could all cause short-term fluctuations in travel indicators and affect judgments on services consumption.

• Energy and commodities

  Energy supply shocks affect inflation, costs, and trade prices through price channels

  Strengths

  Price increases may improve nominal revenue for some upstream or export-related products.

  Weaknesses

  Rapid increases in crude oil, refined oil, and some chemical product prices will raise corporate cost and import price pressures.

  Comparison

  By May 2026, the imported crude oil and imported refined oil price indices were about 142 and 147 respectively, and the exported refined oil price index was about 148.

  Risks

  If Brent remains elevated or continues to rise, the cost shock could spread to transportation, chemicals, and manufacturing.

• China macro policy

  Policy announcements are used to judge counter-cyclical adjustment and changes in market expectations

  Strengths

  The report separately lists major macro policy announcements since March, showing that policy is an important part of the tracking framework.

  Weaknesses

  The current input does not provide specific items from the policy table, so the strength of each policy cannot be determined.

  Comparison

  Combining policy tracking with high-frequency activity data can be used to observe the marginal effects after policy implementation.

  Risks

  The pace, intensity, and market reaction to policy implementation are uncertain.

Key data

• 30-city daily average first-hand home sales volumeabout 300,000 square meters, 7-day moving average, as of May 14About 6.9% above the same period in 2025, but still significantly below most of 2019.
• 16-city daily average used-home sales volumeabout 360,000 square meters, 7-day moving average, as of May 14About 25.2% above the same period in 2025, and at a relatively high level since the start of the year.
• Domestic passenger flight volumeabout 11,000 flights, as of May 14, 2026Down about 12.7% from the same period in 2025, with a clear pullback in mid-May.
• Domestic flight cancellation rateabout 28% to 29%, as of May 14About 12.9 percentage points higher than in 2025, and clearly above the level of the same period last year.
• Traffic congestion index in major citiesabout -0.8% year on year as of May 13Congestion in mid-2026 was slightly below the same period in 2025 and mostly below comparable 2019 levels.
• China gasoline and diesel prices and BrentSince March 2026, Brent rose from about $70/bbl to above $100/bblDomestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised accordingly; the chart readings are visual estimates.
• Import price indicesIn May 2026, imported refined oil was about 147 and crude oil about 142, 2025=100Import prices for crude oil and refined oil rebounded rapidly from April to May 2026.
• Export price indicesIn May 2026, exported refined oil was about 148, and aluminum about 112 to 113, 2025=100The exported refined oil price index showed the most pronounced increase, while aluminum rose moderately.

Impact & implications

The main implications for investment and macro judgment are: the recovery in property transactions provides some support for domestic demand, but weaker travel indicators such as flights and congestion suggest that consumption and mobility remain unstable; rising energy and chemical prices may increase cost pressure and affect import prices, export prices, and corporate profit margins. On the policy side, continued attention should be paid to macro policy announcements since March and their transmission into demand, prices, and market expectations.

Risks

• The input body text is heavily compressed, and some sections such as production and investment and markets and policy are missing specific wording, so the conclusions rely mainly on chart summaries.
• Most chart values are visual estimates, and exact readings require the original data or the full report.
• Energy price shocks may create cost pressure, inflation disturbances, and volatility in corporate profit margins.
• Travel indicators are heavily affected in the short term by weather, operations, holidays, and temporary disruptions, and cannot alone represent the overall consumption trend.
• This report does not provide stock ratings or securities buy/sell recommendations, and a further mapping is still needed between macro themes and specific asset performance.

What to watch

• Whether 30-city first-hand home sales and 16-city used-home sales can continue to stay above the same period in 2025.
• Whether domestic flight volume and flight cancellation rates recover from the weakness seen in mid-May.
• Whether Brent, China's gasoline and diesel prices, and the import crude oil and refined oil price indices remain elevated.
• Whether the traffic congestion index in major cities returns above the level of the same period last year.
• The follow-through implementation details of macro policy announcements since March and their actual lift to demand.
• Whether official port container throughput continues to stay above the same period last year.