Weekly New Home Sales in 50 Cities Up 23% YoY; Secondary Market Recovers in Tandem

Overview

This is the Week 23 high-frequency data tracker released by Morgan Stanley's China Real Estate team, focusing on new and second-hand home online signing performance for the week ended June 7, 2026. Data indicates a rebound in short-term transaction activity, with weekly sales growth for both new and second-hand homes reaching 23% YoY. However, due to base effects from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday last year, YTD cumulative new home sales are still down 12% YoY. The overall industry rating is maintained at 'In-Line'.

Core views

The new home market exhibits structural divergence alongside a short-term recovery. Online signings for new homes in 50 key cities rose 23% YoY, a significant acceleration from the 14% growth seen in the prior week. By city tier, Tier-2 cities were the primary driver, with weekly sales up 30% YoY (vs. +8% in the prior week); Tier-3 cities grew 22%, remaining relatively stable; while growth in Tier-1 cities slowed sharply to 1% (vs. +27% in the prior week), indicating that Tier-1 momentum has plateaued following a concentrated release earlier. Despite strong weekly data, YTD cumulative new home sales across 50 cities remain down 12% YoY due to the timing mismatch of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday compared to last year. The second-hand home market continues its recovery trajectory, led by Tier-1 cities. Online signings for second-hand homes in 10 sample cities rose 23% YoY, significantly higher than the 9% recorded in the prior week. Specifically, weekly second-hand sales in Tier-1 cities surged 34% YoY (vs. +12% in the prior week), while Tier-2 cities grew 17% (vs. +6% in the prior week). YTD cumulative second-hand sales across 10 cities have achieved positive YoY growth of 6%, outperforming the new home market and reflecting a more solid restoration of liquidity in the existing housing stock. Supply-side contraction drove a jump in the sell-through rate. The overall sell-through rate reached 100% last week, far exceeding the 53% in the prior week, primarily because Tier-1 cities like Shanghai had very few new project launches. No new projects opened in Tier-2 cities last week (sell-through rate was 42% in the prior week). On price signals, the Centaline Six-City Second-Hand Asking Price Index held steady at 17.5%, unchanged from the prior week; the Tier-1 Real Estate Agent Index edged up to 54.4 (from 53.8 previously), suggesting marginal improvement in seller expectations but no consensus on price hikes yet.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a standard high-frequency data tracking paradigm, monitoring official online signing records for new homes in 50 cities and second-hand homes in 10 cities to capture short-term market fluctuations. The analytical framework unfolds along four main lines: 'Aggregate → Structure → Supply/Demand → Price.' It begins by assessing market temperature via weekly YoY changes in key national cities; then segments data by Tier-1/2/3 cities to identify structural differences; next evaluates supply-demand matching using new launch volumes and sell-through rates; and finally validates actual price feedback using the Centaline Asking Price Index and Agent Sentiment Index. This multi-dimensional cross-validation helps distinguish between a 'genuine recovery' and 'data noise'; for instance, this week's spike in sell-through rates is attributed to supply contraction rather than a demand explosion.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposing market performance into two independent dimensions—transaction volume and price—for separate tracking

  In real estate markets, volume and price often move asynchronously. This report simultaneously monitors online signing volumes (volume) and the Centaline Asking Price Index/Agent Index (price) to avoid misjudging market conditions based on a single metric. For example, this week's surge in sales coupled with a flat price index suggests stabilization driven by volume expansion rather than price increases.

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  Assessing relative supply-demand strength through the combination of new launch volumes and sell-through rates

  Sell-through rate = Current period sales / Current period available inventory. This metric reflects both demand-side purchasing power and supply-side launch pacing. This week's 100% sell-through rate does not indicate surging demand but results from extremely low new launches in areas like Shanghai; correct interpretation requires combining this with supply data.

• Cycle & Sentiment FrameworkSentiment Inflection Point Analysis

  Identifying short-term sentiment turning points using WoW and YoY changes in weekly high-frequency data

  Compared to monthly or quarterly data, weekly online signings reflect policy impacts and market sentiment shifts more rapidly. The report repeatedly compares YoY growth changes between 'this week vs. last week' (e.g., new home sales rising from +14% to +23%) specifically to capture marginal inflection points rather than focusing solely on absolute levels.

Key data

• 50-City New Home Weekly Sales YoY+23%Accelerated from +14% in prior week, but YTD cumulative -12%
• 10-City Second-Hand Home Weekly Sales YoY+23%Significant acceleration from +9% in prior week; YTD cumulative +6%
• Tier-1 City Second-Hand Home Weekly Sales YoY+34%Sharp acceleration from +12% in prior week, leading all tiers
• Tier-2 City New Home Weekly Sales YoY+30%Significant acceleration from +8% in prior week; primary driver of new home sales
• Overall Sell-Through Rate100%Was 53% in prior week; mainly due to minimal new launches in Shanghai
• Centaline Six-City Second-Hand Asking Price Index17.5%Flat vs. prior week; no upward signal on price front yet

Impact & implications

The report views the current real estate market as being in a weak recovery phase characterized by 'stable volume and flat prices.' The synchronized rebound in weekly new and second-hand home sales indicates that housing demand has not disappeared, but YTD negative cumulative growth in new homes and stagnant price indices suggest the recovery foundation remains fragile. The passive rise in Tier-1 sell-through rates stems from supply contraction rather than overheated demand; greater sales elasticity in Tier-2 cities may relate to deeper prior corrections and stronger policy easing. The overall industry view remains 'In-Line,' implying the institution believes current data performance aligns with previous expectations of market bottom consolidation.