Display upgrades and expansion into new glass-based businesses create growth opportunities, while Goldman Sachs maintains its Neutral rating on BOE A

Overview

This report summarizes key takeaways from Goldman Sachs' discussions with BOE management during the 2026 Asia Leaders Conference. The central conclusion is that the traditional display business is consolidating its competitive position through technology, high-end products, and product-mix upgrades, while the company is attempting to replicate its glass-processing and large-scale manufacturing capabilities in new areas. However, Goldman Sachs maintains its Neutral rating and 12-month target price of Rmb4.79.

Core views

Goldman Sachs hosted BOE management at its Asia Leaders Conference held in Hong Kong, China, from August 31 to September 2, 2026. The report's overall assessment is that competition in the panel industry is becoming healthier and that BOE's leading position in large-size LCD panels remains its core foundation. Meanwhile, the company is adjusting both its small- and large-size product mixes: small-size panels are upgrading from LCD to flexible OLED, while the large-size business is increasing shipments of TV panels measuring 55 inches and above. Goldman Sachs views these operating initiatives positively but maintains its Neutral rating. Within the core display business, management emphasized continued upgrades across the three technology roadmaps of LCD, flexible OLED, and MLED. In LCD, the company is advancing UB Cell, Oxide, and LTPS technologies and enhancing competitiveness by optimizing its product mix and expanding the supply of high-end products. Flexible OLED shipments continue to increase, driven by product innovation and a broader range of applications. The company is also integrating AI into display technologies and end products and leveraging technology brands and system-level innovation capabilities to strengthen the competitiveness of high-end display products and consolidate its leading position in the display market. The second key theme is extending existing core capabilities into new growth areas. BOE aims to leverage its display technology, glass-based processing, and large-scale integrated manufacturing capabilities to expand into glass-based advanced packaging, optical interconnects, and perovskite photovoltaics, working with industry partners to advance technology development and commercialization. Management expects continued innovation in technologies, products, and business models to facilitate the rollout of these new businesses, broaden the company's industry boundaries, and cultivate new growth drivers. The report does not yet provide specific revenue, profit, or commercialization timelines for these businesses. Goldman Sachs' financial table shows BOE's revenue rising from Rmb198,380.6mn in 2024 to an estimated Rmb209,202.0mn in 2025, Rmb221,421.6mn in 2026, and Rmb255,181.1mn in 2027. EBITDA over the same period is Rmb45,777.3mn, Rmb46,039.6mn, Rmb47,798.8mn, and Rmb51,350.6mn, respectively, while EPS is Rmb0.14, Rmb0.16, Rmb0.21, and Rmb0.28, respectively. These forecasts present a modeled trajectory of gradually rising revenue, EBITDA, and earnings per share and provide the financial backdrop for the target-price valuation. On valuation, Goldman Sachs maintains its 12-month target price of Rmb4.79. Relative to the September 1, 2026 closing price of Rmb5.91, this implies 19.0% downside. The target price is based on expected 2026 EV/EBITDA, applying a target multiple of 4.9x, set at one standard deviation below the company's average valuation to reflect the cyclical nature of the panel industry. The company's M&A Rank is 3; under the methodology in the report's appendix, this corresponds to a low acquisition probability of 0%-15%, which is considered immaterial and therefore not incorporated into the target price. The report explicitly identifies three sets of two-sided risk variables: flexible OLED shipment growth could be faster or slower than expected; market-share gains in large-size LCD and small-size flexible OLED could be faster or slower than expected; and the ramp-up of new fabs could also deviate from expectations, particularly fabs such as B17 for large-size LCD and flexible OLED fabs. These variables will affect the pace of product-mix upgrades and represent upside or downside risks to the target price and operating performance.

Analysis framework

The report first summarizes management's comments at the Asia Leaders Conference, dividing the company thesis into two main themes: upgrading the core display business and extending core capabilities into new areas. It then combines company data, Goldman Sachs research forecasts, and FactSet data to present revenue, EBITDA, and EPS trajectories. Finally, it derives the target price using expected 2026 EV/EBITDA and identifies flexible OLED shipments, market share, and new-fab ramp-up as key sensitivity factors.

Methodology notes

• Company fundamentals and financial framework

  Summary of management meeting takeaways

  Based on discussions with BOE management during the Asia Leaders Conference, Goldman Sachs summarizes the company's technology roadmaps, product mix, and new-business commercialization directions and connects them to the company's competitive position.

• Valuation methodologyEV/EBITDA valuation

  Expected 2026 EV/EBITDA target valuation

  The report determines the target price using the ratio of enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, applying a target multiple of 4.9x and setting it at one standard deviation below the company's average to reflect the cyclical nature of the panel industry.

• Event-driven strategies and behavioral finance

  M&A target probability ranking

  Goldman Sachs uses ranks 1 through 3 to assess the likelihood of a company becoming an M&A target. BOE is ranked 3, corresponding to a low probability of 0%-15%; under this methodology, no M&A factor is incorporated into the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BOE A (BOE, 000725.SZ)

  The report's primary covered company; display product upgrades and the extension of glass-based capabilities constitute potential growth drivers.

  Strengths

  The company holds a leading position in large-size LCD panels, is increasing flexible OLED shipments, and possesses capabilities in display technology, glass processing, and large-scale integrated manufacturing.

  Weaknesses

  The panel industry is cyclical, so Goldman Sachs sets the target valuation multiple at one standard deviation below the company's average; the current share price is above its target price.

  Comparison

  The report believes the company maintains a leading position in the large-size LCD panel market and benefits from healthier industry competition.

  Risks

  Flexible OLED shipments, market share in large- and small-size panels, and the ramp-up pace of new fabs such as B17 and flexible OLED fabs could deviate from expectations.

Key data

• Rating and target priceNeutral; 12-month target price of Rmb4.79The report explicitly maintains its Neutral rating
• Current price and target-price potentialRmb5.91; 19.0% downsideThe price is the September 1, 2026 closing price
• Target EV/EBITDA multiple4.9xBased on expected 2026 EV/EBITDA and set at one standard deviation below the company's average
• RevenueRmb198,380.6mn / Rmb209,202.0mn / Rmb221,421.6mn / Rmb255,181.1mnCorresponding respectively to 2024, estimated 2025, estimated 2026, and estimated 2027
• EBITDARmb45,777.3mn / Rmb46,039.6mn / Rmb47,798.8mn / Rmb51,350.6mnCorresponding respectively to 2024, estimated 2025, estimated 2026, and estimated 2027
• EPSRmb0.14 / Rmb0.16 / Rmb0.21 / Rmb0.28Corresponding respectively to 2024, estimated 2025, estimated 2026, and estimated 2027
• M&A Rank3Corresponds to a 0%-15% acquisition probability and is not incorporated into the target price under the report's methodology

Impact & implications

The report believes BOE's leading position in large-size LCDs and its upgrades in flexible OLED, high-end LCDs, and large-size TV panels will help it consolidate its position as competition in the panel market becomes healthier. Glass-based advanced packaging, optical interconnects, and perovskite photovoltaics could broaden its sources of long-term growth, but their commercialization still depends on further innovation in technologies, products, and business models. Despite the positive operating direction, the target price is below the current share price, so Goldman Sachs maintains its Neutral rating.

Risks

• Flexible OLED shipment growth could be faster or slower than expected, representing upside or downside risk, respectively.
• Market-share gains in large-size LCD and small-size flexible OLED could be faster or slower than expected, potentially changing operating results.
• The ramp-up of new fabs could be faster or slower than expected, particularly large-size LCD fabs such as B17 and flexible OLED fabs, potentially affecting product-mix upgrades.

What to watch

• Actual progress in flexible OLED shipment growth and the expansion of its application scope.
• Changes in market share for large-size LCD and small-size flexible OLED.
• The ramp-up pace of large-size LCD fabs such as B17 and new flexible OLED fabs.