Kanzhun NDR takeaways: Blue-collar recruitment and AI closed-loop services drive revenue growth

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs NDR meeting takeaway report on Kanzhun Ltd. Based on investor discussions with the company's Deputy CFO, the report focuses on the recovery in the recruitment market, blue-collar recruitment monetization, AI closed-loop fulfillment services, expense investments, the Hong Kong OfferToday pilot, and shareholder returns. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on BZ/2076.HK.

Core views

The core view is that recruitment demand has steadily recovered after the Lunar New Year and continued into April-May, with 2Q26 revenue growth likely to accelerate; blue-collar recruitment is becoming the main source of incremental growth, with strong contributions from manufacturing, logistics, and urban services; AI agents can improve recruitment fulfillment efficiency and ROI measurability, driving the platform's upgrade from traffic exposure to closed-loop outcome-based services; near-term expense investment will rise, but core business margins remain high, and the shareholder return commitment enhances the appeal of capital allocation.

Analysis framework

The report combines NDR management feedback with company operating data, summarizing revenue guidance, user mix, industry segments, ARPU, AI service revenue, expense budget, overseas pilots, and capital returns, and uses a 12-month forward P/E multiple as the target price methodology.

Methodology notes

• Valuation method12-month forward P/E target multiple

  The target price is based on a 15.5x target 12-month forward P/E multiple

  Goldman Sachs assigns 12-month target prices of BZ US$21 and 2076.HK HK$82 to Kanzhun, based on a 15.5x target 12-month forward P/E multiple.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Evaluates stock characteristics based on growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles

  This framework uses Goldman Sachs forecast data to calculate standardized rankings for growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples, and forms a composite percentile from the average of growth, financial returns, and 100% minus the valuation multiple percentile.

• M&A probability frameworkM&A Rank

  Uses a 1 to 3 rating to reflect the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target

  Goldman Sachs' globally covered stocks are assessed under an M&A framework for the probability of potential acquisition, where 1 represents high probability, 2 represents medium probability, and 3 represents low probability; if the ranking is 1 or 2, M&A factors may be incorporated into the target price.

• Data platformQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary financial database

  Quantum provides detailed financial statement history, forecasts, and ratios for use in in-depth single-company analysis or cross-company comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BZ.US

  Kanzhun Ltd. ADR, one of the main covered securities in this report

  Strengths

  Accelerating revenue growth, expanding contribution from blue-collar recruitment, improved monetization from AI closed-loop services, core business OPM above 50%, and a clear shareholder return commitment.

  Weaknesses

  Blue-collar ARPU is lower than white-collar ARPU, investment in AI computing power and teams is increasing, World Cup marketing expenses are rising in phases, and overseas business is still in the validation stage.

  Comparison

  Disclosed price of US$13.75 versus a 12-month target price of US$21; blue-collar ARPU of about Rmb90, below white-collar ARPU of Rmb110-Rmb120.

  Risks

  Recruitment demand weaker than expected, AI disruption, AI feature rollout and monetization execution below expectations, overseas losses or monetization below expectations, intensified competition, and inappropriate behavior by users or employees.

• 2076.HK

  Kanzhun Ltd. H shares, sharing the same fundamental coverage logic as the ADR

  Strengths

  Benefits from the same blue-collar recruitment, AI closed-loop services, and shareholder return thesis, while also offering a Hong Kong trading channel.

  Weaknesses

  Fundamental risks are consistent with the ADR, while Hong Kong market liquidity and valuation performance may not move in sync with the ADR.

  Comparison

  Disclosed price of HK$52.95 versus a 12-month target price of HK$82; Goldman Sachs assigns Buy ratings to both BZ and 2076.HK.

  Risks

  Also faces risks related to recruitment demand, AI execution, overseas business, competition, and compliance/behavior.

• OfferToday

  Kanzhun's pilot platform in the Hong Kong market

  Strengths

  Has reached 60k DAU, with high user stickiness, active job seekers, and relatively strong willingness to pay.

  Weaknesses

  Hong Kong's B-end market is relatively traditional, HR-led, and prefers email communication; the company is currently prioritizing business model validation rather than short-term monetization.

  Comparison

  Compared with the core mainland recruitment platform, OfferToday is more of a business model validation project for the Hong Kong market, with investment below Rmb100mn.

  Risks

  Business model validation slower than expected, monetization below expectations, or widening losses.

• AI closed-loop services

  An important business capability for Kanzhun's platform monetization upgrade

  Strengths

  AI agents can align with recruiter needs, precisely screen candidates, conduct multiple rounds of communication, and generate shortlist candidates, driving a shift from traffic exposure to fulfillment revenue.

  Weaknesses

  High-end recruitment still requires human involvement, while computing depreciation, GPU rental, and talent compensation increase expense pressure.

  Comparison

  Acceptance is higher among standardized mass-recruitment accounts, with per-outcome pricing rising from Rmb2-Rmb3 to Rmb8-Rmb10; in high-end recruitment, it is used more to improve consultant efficiency.

  Risks

  AI product experience, fulfillment effectiveness, customer willingness to pay, or ROI proof may fall short of expectations.

Key data

• 2Q26 revenue guidanceRmb2,380mn-Rmb2,420mnImplies 13%-15% YoY growth in 2Q26, above the 7.6% YoY growth in 1Q26.
• Full-year 2026 revenue growth guidanceLow-teens to mid-teens YoY growthManagement reiterated this full-year revenue growth range during the NDR.
• Share of new blue-collar usersAbout 2/3 of new non-graduate usersBlue-collar user expansion is an important driver of revenue growth.
• Blue-collar revenue contributionOver 40% of total revenue; over 50% of incremental revenue growthManufacturing was the fastest-growing segment, while logistics and urban services also maintained fast growth.
• Blue-collar fulfillment business revenue1Q26 Rmb10mn-Rmb20mnThe company piloted outcome-based pricing in manufacturing, with a significant improvement in ARPU.
• Blue-collar and white-collar ARPUBlue-collar about Rmb90; white-collar Rmb110-Rmb120Blue-collar ARPU is lower, mainly dragged down by the lower ARPU in the urban services segment.
• Scope of AI-related job impactAbout 9%-10% of revenue and job postingsInternal company research estimates that jobs such as software development, finance, legal, design, and customer service are affected by AI.
• Software engineering job growth11% YoY growth from January-April 2026Software engineering job postings on the Kanzhun platform increased, driven by large tech companies and startups.
• AI closed-loop service revenueEstimated at Rmb200mn-Rmb300mn in 2026Compared with about Rmb50mn in 1Q26 and over Rmb100mn in 2025, it is expected to contribute 1-2 percentage points to 2026 revenue growth.
• AI service pricingPer outcome increased from Rmb2-Rmb3 to Rmb8-Rmb10Standardized mass-recruitment accounts show higher acceptance of AI agents, with lower resistance to price increases.
• World Cup marketing budgetAbout Rmb200mnExpected to be recognized in 2Q26 and 3Q26, mainly concentrated in June.
• Incremental AI costsDepreciation for chips, etc. about Rmb300mn/year; incremental GPU rental cost Rmb150mn-Rmb200mnAI investment is mainly concentrated in computing power costs, while compensation for the core AI team has also increased.
• OfferToday Hong Kong DAU60k DAUThe Hong Kong market serves as a pilot for business model validation, with validation prioritized over short-term monetization.
• Hong Kong market investmentLess than Rmb100mnThe report states that overseas/HK investment is below Rmb100mn.
• Shareholder return commitmentNo less than 50% of the previous year's adjusted net profit over the next 3 yearsForms include buybacks and dividends.
• Year-to-date buybackUS$200mnClose to 40% of 2025 non-GAAP net profit, representing about 3% of market cap.
• Buyback plan sizeUS$400mn, valid until 2027-08-28The current buyback plan still has remaining capacity.
• Target priceBZ US$21; 2076.HK HK$82Based on a 15.5x target 12-month forward P/E multiple.

Impact & implications

If management delivers on its guidance, Kanzhun's growth narrative will extend beyond the post-Lunar New Year recovery in recruitment demand to include blue-collar penetration and AI fulfillment monetization. Blue-collar recruitment expands the revenue pool, AI closed-loop services improve payment measurability and platform monetization, and the shareholder return commitment increases certainty around capital allocation. The main trade-off is that near-term investment in AI and World Cup marketing will push up expenses, while AI commercialization and overseas pilots still require continued validation.

Risks

• Recruitment demand may be weaker than expected.
• Potential AI disruption may alter job demand or recruitment processes.
• AI feature rollout and AI monetization execution may come in below expectations.
• Overseas business progress may fall short of expectations, monetization may be weak, or losses may widen.
• Industry competition may intensify.
• Improper behavior by users or employees may create operational, reputational, or compliance risks.
• World Cup marketing and AI infrastructure investment may create near-term margin pressure.

What to watch

• Whether the recovery in recruitment demand in April-May and 2Q26 continues, and whether the Rmb2,380mn-Rmb2,420mn revenue guidance can be achieved.
• Whether blue-collar users, manufacturing, logistics, and urban services continue to increase their contribution to incremental revenue.
• Whether blue-collar ARPU can improve through fulfillment services and outcome-based pricing.
• Whether the full-year AI closed-loop service revenue target of Rmb200mn-Rmb300mn can be achieved.
• Whether customer acceptance remains stable after AI service pricing rises from Rmb2-Rmb3 to Rmb8-Rmb10.
• The impact of AI computing depreciation, GPU rental, and AI team compensation on margins.
• Business model validation and subsequent monetization path for OfferToday in Hong Kong on top of its 60k DAU base.
• Execution of the US$400mn buyback plan, dividends, and the shareholder return commitment of no less than 50% of the previous year's adjusted net profit over the next 3 years.