If the Kyber backplane solution is delayed, the 2027-2028 AI PCB/CCL market opportunity faces downward revision

Overview

This report discusses the potential delay of the Kyber/backplane PCB architecture on the Rubin Ultra platform and its impact on AI PCB, copper-clad laminate (CCL), upstream materials, and the copper-cable supply chain. Channel checks indicate that orthogonal backplane PCB, as an in-rack interconnect solution to replace cable cartridge, is relatively complex; the Kyber architecture originally planned for Rubin Ultra in 2027 is likely to be delayed until at least 2028, while Rubin Ultra in 2027 is expected to continue using the Oberon architecture, i.e. NVL72.

Core views

The core view is that a Kyber delay is negative for the overall AI PCB/CCL market and for PCB-chain sentiment, but it does not change the long-term trend of rising PCB dollar content in AI infrastructure. Jefferies estimates 2027 AI PCB/CCL TAM would be revised down by 5%/8% versus prior forecasts; if Kyber is delayed further beyond 2028 or canceled, 2028 TAM could be revised down by another 11%/16%. Within the supply chain, upstream materials—especially fiberglass cloth and CCL—should continue to outperform downstream PCB makers in the near term because of tight supply and stronger pricing pass-through, while copper-cable vendors benefit from the extended Oberon lifecycle.

Analysis framework

The report uses channel checks, scenario analysis for AI PCB/CCL TAM, and supply-chain margin transmission analysis to compare the original forecast with the 2027-2028 market opportunity under a no-Kyber scenario, and further assesses the relative impact on upstream PCB materials, downstream board makers, and copper-cable vendors.

Methodology notes

• scenario analysisTAM revision under Kyber delay/cancellation scenarios

  Uses the original AI PCB/CCL TAM forecast as the base case to estimate the impact of a missing Kyber/backplane PCB on 2027 and 2028 market size.

  The original forecast assumed specification upgrades and material upgrades would drive AI PCB/CCL TAM growth; in a no-Kyber or Kyber-cancellation scenario, incremental backplane PCB demand falls, leading to a downward TAM revision.

• supply chain analysisRelative performance comparison of upstream materials versus downstream PCB makers

  Compares how supply tightness, pricing pass-through, and cost-transfer ability affect profit across different supply-chain segments.

  The report argues that upstream material vendors such as fiberglass cloth and CCL are better able to pass through costs and capture incremental profit from price increases at this stage, and therefore may outperform downstream PCB makers in the near term.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• AI PCB supply chain

  Directly affected by a delay to Kyber/backplane PCB

  Strengths

  AI infrastructure expansion, specification upgrades, and material upgrades still support the long-term increase in PCB dollar content.

  Weaknesses

  A Kyber absence would reduce the 2027-2028 TAM increment and could lead to EPS cuts and weaker market sentiment.

  Comparison

  Compared with upstream materials, downstream PCB makers are in a weaker position to pass through costs and benefit from price increases.

  Risks

  Kyber continues to be delayed, canceled, technical commercialization visibility remains low, and customer capex slows.

• CCL and upstream materials such as fiberglass cloth

  Upstream part of the PCB supply chain, driven by supply tightness and price increases

  Strengths

  Industry supply is tight and pricing pass-through is relatively strong, making it easier to capture incremental profit from each pricing round.

  Weaknesses

  If end-market PCB demand slows materially because of a Kyber delay, upstream shipment growth could still be affected.

  Comparison

  The report believes upstream materials may continue to outperform downstream PCB makers in the near term.

  Risks

  Easing supply-demand tightness, inability to sustain price increases, and weaker-than-expected downstream demand.

• Copper-cable vendors

  Potential beneficiaries of the extended adoption of the Oberon architecture

  Strengths

  An extended Oberon lifecycle reduces the risk of copper cable being displaced by PCB in in-rack interconnects, which may increase earnings upside over the next few years.

  Weaknesses

  Longer term, they still face uncertainty from replacement by new interconnect solutions such as PCB backplanes.

  Comparison

  Compared with PCB backplane solutions, copper cable gets a longer window of opportunity under a Kyber delay scenario.

  Risks

  Earlier-than-expected Kyber breakthroughs, customer design shifts, and changes in data center interconnect architecture.

• NVIDIA Corporation

  Company associated with Rubin Ultra, Oberon, and Kyber architectures; the report discloses a BUY rating and target price

  Strengths

  Strong demand for AI data center platforms; Jefferies' $300 target price implies 21x CY28E EPS of $14.14.

  Weaknesses

  The complexity of the platform interconnect solution may affect supply-chain execution timing.

  Comparison

  The report is primarily about supply-chain event impacts, with NVIDIA serving as the related disclosure and architecture anchor.

  Risks

  Competition from INTC, AMD, and hyperscalers' in-house ASICs, slower-than-expected capex from enterprises and cloud providers, and a slower-than-expected ramp in automotive platforms.

Key data

• Original 2025 AI PCB TAM forecastUS$6-7bnIncludes AI servers, high-speed switches, and high-speed optical transceivers.
• Original 2025 AI CCL TAM forecastUS$2-3bnIncludes AI servers, high-speed switches, and high-speed optical transceivers.
• Original 2026 AI PCB/CCL TAM forecastUS$12bn / US$5bnDriven by specification upgrades and material upgrades from M8 to M9/10/PTFE.
• Original 2027 AI PCB/CCL TAM forecastUS$25bn / US$12bnIf Kyber is delayed, this would be revised down by 5%/8% versus the prior forecast.
• Original 2028 AI PCB/CCL TAM forecastUS$41bn / US$21bnIf Kyber is pushed back further or canceled, 2028 could be revised down by another 11%/16%.
• NVIDIA target price$300Implied by 21x CY28E EPS of $14.14; disclosed current price is $210.69, rating BUY.

Impact & implications

For investment implications, a Kyber delay would reduce the growth upside elasticity of the PCB chain over the next few years and could trigger EPS cuts and share-price pressure for PCB vendors; however, materials upgrades continue to advance—for example, switch boards and midplanes may migrate to M9/10/PTFE in 2027, and CoWoP still targets earliest penetration in 2027—so the long-term trend of rising PCB dollar content in AI infrastructure interconnect solutions has not been structurally broken. Relative beneficiaries include upstream material vendors with pricing power and copper-cable vendors benefiting from the extended Oberon lifecycle.

Risks

• Kyber/backplane PCB technical challenges persist, leading to further delay beyond 2028 or even cancellation.
• A downward revision in AI PCB/CCL TAM leads to EPS cuts and share-price volatility for PCB vendors.
• A slowdown in data center capex weakens demand for AI servers, high-speed switches, and optical modules.
• Upstream material price increases cannot be sustained or cost pass-through weakens.
• Competing solutions such as copper cable, ASICs, or other interconnect architectures reshape supply-chain value allocation.

What to watch

• Whether Rubin Ultra in 2027 is confirmed to continue using the Oberon/NVL72 architecture.
• Whether the next-generation Rubin Ultra in 2028 can adopt the Kyber architecture, especially progress on the simplified 2-canister solution.
• The pace of M9/10/PTFE material migration in switch boards and midplanes.
• Whether the earliest 2027 penetration target for CoWoP is achieved.
• The sustainability of price increases for upstream materials such as fiberglass cloth and CCL, and the magnitude of profit revisions for PCB makers.
• Order trends, earnings expectations, and customer design lifecycle changes at copper-cable vendors.