CPU Rebound Drives ABF Carrier Board Supply-Demand Gap, Raise Ibiden Target Price to ¥23,900
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CPU Rebound Drives ABF Carrier Board Supply-Demand Gap, Raise Ibiden Target Price to ¥23,900
Due to CPU rebound, ABF carrier board supply shortage is expected, raise Ibiden target price to ¥23,900.
- CPU rebound drives ABF carrier board demand surge.
- Industry-wide ABF carrier board shortage expected starting 2027.
- Raise Ibiden target price to ¥23,900.
- Maintain Outperform rating.
- Ajinomoto and Unimicron also expected to benefit.
Report interpretation
Overview
This research report explores how CPU rebound drives ABF carrier board demand growth and leads to supply-demand gap. The report raises Ibiden's target price to ¥23,900 and maintains its Outperform rating.
Core views
CPU rebound is expected to significantly increase demand for ABF carrier boards, particularly with server CPU demand growth contributing approximately 40% of total demand. Although suppliers have increased capacity investments, supply growth still falls far short of demand growth, and industry-wide ABF carrier board shortage is expected starting 2027. As the supply-demand gap widens, suppliers are expected to implement price increases, which will raise Ibiden's ASP (average selling price), leading to the target price adjustment to ¥23,900.
Analysis framework
The report first analyzes CPU market development trends and demand growth, then evaluates ABF carrier board supply-demand status. By comparing demand growth and supply growth data, it forecasts future supply-demand gap and adjusts financial forecasts and target price for Ibiden accordingly.
Methodology notes
Analyzed ABF carrier board demand growth and supply growth, forecasted future supply-demand gap.
Analyzed ABF carrier board market demand and supply capacity through supply-demand framework, forecasted supply-demand imbalance in coming years.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- IbidenBenefits from CPU rebound-driven ABF carrier board demand growth
- Strengths
- Strong customer base, especially server CPU customers; aggressive capacity expansion plans
- Weaknesses
- Current ASP is low with room for improvement; potential raw material cost pressure
- Comparison
- Compared to competitors, has higher technical capabilities and better customer relationships
- Risks
- Industry-wide oversupply risk; core customer market share may decline; high depreciation risk from capacity expansion
- AjinomotoBenefits from CPU rebound-driven ABF carrier board demand growth
- Strengths
- Aggressive capacity expansion plans, including new factories in Gunma and Gifu
- Weaknesses
- Current ASP is low with room for improvement; potential natural disaster risk
- Comparison
- Compared to competitors, has good growth potential and stable customer relationships
- Risks
- New competitors entering the market; capacity expansion by existing competitors; technological progress reducing demand for ABF
- UnimicronBenefits from CPU rebound-driven ABF carrier board demand growth
- Strengths
- Aggressive capacity expansion plans, expected 40% growth in 2026; strong customer base
- Weaknesses
- Current ASP is low with room for improvement; potential raw material cost pressure
- Comparison
- Compared to competitors, has good growth potential and stable customer relationships
- Risks
- Capacity expansion by competitors; slow recovery in HDI yield and gross margin; macroeconomic pressure and tariff issues may delay smartphone and PC recovery
Key data
- Server CPU Demand Growth37% CAGRCAGR during 2025-2028
- ABF Carrier Board Demand Growth22% CAGRCAGR during 2025-2028
- ABF Carrier Board Supply Growth12% CAGRCAGR during 2025-2028
- Ibiden Revenue Forecast3-13%YoY growth for 2027/3E-2028/3E
- Ibiden Target Price¥23,900Based on 35x FY29/3E EPS
Impact & implications
ABF carrier board supply shortage is expected in coming years, which will drive price increases and improve supplier profitability. Ibiden and other major suppliers such as Ajinomoto and Unimicron are expected to benefit.
Risks
- Industry-wide oversupply risk
- Core customer market share may decline
- High depreciation risk from capacity expansion
- New competitors entering the market
- Capacity expansion by existing competitors
- Technological progress reducing demand for ABF
- Natural disasters causing supply chain disruption
- Macroeconomic pressure and tariff issues may delay smartphone and PC recovery
What to watch
- CPU market demand growth
- Supplier capacity expansion progress
- Changes in raw material costs
- Industry supply-demand gap changes
- Magnitude and timing of price increases