Humanoid robot capacity ramps up; maintain Buy rating on Lingyi

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' company earnings review on Lingyi (002600.SZ). The report focuses on the company's progress in humanoid robots, liquid cooling, and innovative businesses such as foldable smartphones, AI glasses, and automotive, and lowers its 2025-2028E earnings forecasts in light of 4Q25 results. Despite seasonal sequential pressure in the first quarter, Goldman Sachs expects sequential growth to emerge earlier in subsequent quarters and maintains its Buy rating.

Core views

Goldman Sachs' core view is that the first batch of products from Lingyi's Beijing humanoid robot factory rolled off the line in April 2026, marking the factory's formal entry into the large-scale delivery stage; the company has manufacturing capabilities covering core components, joint modules, complete-machine assembly, and testing, helping it meet humanoid robot customers' technical and mass-production needs. In the near term, 1Q26E may decline sequentially due to seasonality, but foldable smartphones, AI glasses, and new businesses are expected to support subsequent sequential growth. The earnings forecast cut mainly reflects weaker momentum in the non-foldable smartphone business, product mix changes, and higher R&D investment, rather than a rejection of the long-term logic of innovative businesses.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of fundamental forecast revisions and relative valuation: it first incorporates 4Q25 results and updates 2025-2028E revenue, gross margin, expense ratio, net profit, and EPS forecasts, then derives the target P/E from the correlation between peers' P/E and EPS growth, and on that basis calculates the 12-month target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsTarget P/E method

  A 12-month target price of Rmb21.6 is derived using 29.0x 2027E EPS.

  The target P/E comes from the updated correlation between peer P/E and EPS growth, while also considering sector valuation uplift driven by AI-related re-rating; this multiple lies within Lingyi's historical trading range since January 2017.

• Earnings forecastForecast revision

  2025-2028E EPS is lowered after incorporating 4Q25 results.

  2025-2028E EPS is cut by 16%, 18%, 9%, and 9%, respectively, due to weaker momentum in the non-foldable smartphone business, gross margin pressure from product mix changes, and a higher expense ratio caused by increased R&D investment.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Compare stock attributes across Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated dimensions.

  GS Factor Profile uses Goldman Sachs forecasts and standardized rankings to measure growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples, and forms a composite percentile to provide investment context.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Lingyi(002600.SZ)

  Research target, an A-share technology manufacturing company.

  Strengths

  The company has made progress in innovative businesses such as precision manufacturing for humanoid robots, core metal structural components, complete-machine assembly and testing, liquid cooling, foldable smartphones, and AI glasses; its Beijing humanoid robot factory has entered the scaled delivery stage.

  Weaknesses

  Momentum in the non-foldable smartphone business is weak, product mix changes are dragging down gross margin, and rising R&D investment is pushing up the expense ratio.

  Comparison

  The target P/E of 29.0x is based on the correlation between peer P/E and EPS growth, and is within the company's historical trading range since 2017.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected penetration of foldable smartphones or AI terminals, intensifying supplier competition, and weak macroeconomics dragging on demand.

• Honor Lightning robot

  A downstream robot customer product, for which Lingyi supplies certain core metal structural components.

  Strengths

  The products cover key motor units in the hips, legs, feet, and body, and scaled delivery has already begun.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose the revenue scale or margin of this supply relationship.

  Comparison

  This case is used to demonstrate Lingyi's ability to meet robot customers' technical and mass-production requirements.

  Risks

  The pace of customer robot demand ramp-up and supply chain competition may affect order conversion.

Key data

• 12-month target priceRmb21.6The previous target price was Rmb22.6.
• Current share priceRmb14.64Price as of the close on April 20, 2026.
• Potential upside47.5%Calculated from the target price relative to the current price.
• 2026E annual robot capacity target10k unitsManagement targets annual robot production capacity of 10,000 units in 2026E.
• 2026E revenue forecastRmb67,582.8mnAbout 4% lower than the previous forecast.
• 2027E revenue forecastRmb82,739.5mnAbout 3% lower than the previous forecast.
• 2028E revenue forecastRmb97,286.0mnAbout 3% lower than the previous forecast.
• 2026E EPSRmb0.48Previous forecast was Rmb0.58.
• 2027E EPSRmb0.74Previous forecast was Rmb0.82.
• 2028E EPSRmb0.92Previous forecast was Rmb1.01.

Impact & implications

The report's investment implication is broadly positive: scaled delivery of humanoid robots and component supply for Honor Lightning robots validate the company's precision manufacturing capabilities and could increase the revenue contribution of innovative businesses; however, weakness in the traditional non-foldable smartphone business, pressure on gross margin, and higher R&D expenses have led to downward revisions in near-term earnings forecasts. Goldman Sachs still believes the target price implies significant upside and therefore maintains its Buy rating.

Risks

• Penetration of foldable smartphones or AI terminals may be slower than expected.
• Potential competition may intensify as more suppliers enter.
• Weak macroeconomic conditions may continue to weigh on market demand.
• Momentum in the non-foldable smartphone business may be weaker than expected.
• Product mix changes and rising R&D investment may pressure margins.

What to watch

• Capacity ramp-up and scaled delivery progress at the Beijing humanoid robot factory.
• Whether the 2026E target of 10,000 units of annual robot production capacity can be achieved.
• Orders for Honor Lightning robot structural components and follow-on customer expansion.
• The pace of increasing revenue contribution from foldable smartphones, AI glasses, automotive, liquid cooling, and robot businesses.
• Whether revenue and margins improve sequentially after 1Q26E as expected.
• Whether the higher R&D expense ratio can translate into new business orders and earnings growth.