Express Pricing Power Steady, but E-commerce Demand Cooling, Institution Preferences Diverge
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Express Pricing Power Steady, but E-commerce Demand Cooling, Institution Preferences Diverge
In April, express industry ASP continued to rise, supported by policy; however, e-commerce GMV growth slowed to 0.2%, the lowest since December 2024. Morgan Stanley maintains ZTO and JD Logistics as top picks, with SF's strategy转型进度 being a key observation point.
- In April, express industry ASP rose 3% YoY to 7.65元, with revenue growth of 6.3% outpacing volume growth of 3.2%, indicating a shift towards quality and profit-driven growth
- E-commerce demand cooled明显: In April, online实物商品GMV grew only 0.2% YoY, with appliance and communication equipment categories承压
- Conference highlights: Counter内卷政策从'运动式'转向日常运营规则，企业聚焦成本传导与自动化
- Institutional立场: ZTO and JD Logistics are top picks; SF's strategy转型进度 is key observation point; YMM is neutral
- Stock divergence: Since the beginning of the year, the express sector and JD Logistics have led gains, while SF, J&T, and YMM have lagged
Report interpretation
Overview
This report synthesizes Morgan Stanley's global China summit insights and April operational data, offering a dual track picture of China's logistics and express industry: On one hand, policy-driven 'Counter内卷' continues to support industry pricing power, with express average selling prices (ASP) steadily rebounding and the industry shifting from 'volume-driven growth' to 'quality and profit-driven growth'; on the other hand,电商终端需求明显冷却明显, April online实物商品GMV growth slowed to 0.2%, the lowest since December 2024, posing pressure on second-quarter e-commerce and related logistics. Institutions maintain selective optimism for the sector, with ZTO and JD Logistics as top picks, and SF's strategy转型进度 being the key sentiment driver.
Core views
The report's central judgment is that the express industry is at the intersection of 'policy dividend + structural optimization' and 'demand逆风 + cost volatility'. Policy and pricing: Counter内卷 measures have shifted from short-term, '运动式' governance to daily operational rules, with price discipline, grassroots福利, network stability becoming policy priorities. In April, industry ASP rose 3% YoY to 7.65元, with revenue growth (6.3%) significantly outpacing volume growth (3.2%), indicating a shift towards quality and profit-driven growth. All management teams at the summit universally confirmed that the likelihood of a return to激进价格战 is low. Demand逆风: In stark contrast to the improvement in express supply-side,电商需求明显冷却明显. In April, online retail grew only 2.3% YoY, with online实物商品GMV growth slowing to 0.2%, the lowest since December 2024, posing risks to second-quarter e-commerce and related logistics. The Morgan Stanley internet team believes this will impact second-quarter GMV and revenue for e-commerce companies. Company differentiation and strategy: - ZTO: Second-quarter to date piece volume growth of 10-13%, confident in full-year target;反向物流 peak daily volume of 10 million orders, forming a differentiation barrier;末端直分率40-45%, automation investment continues;阿里减持对基本面影响有限（天猫淘宝占比<20%）. - J&T: Southeast Asia is the core growth engine (expected annual growth of 50%), has established overseas last-mile delivery cooperation with SF; Latin America business transitions from direct operation to franchise model, with significant cost advantages. - YMM (Full Truck Alliance): Full-year direct transport volume guidance of 13-17%, with oil prices rising in March pushing freight owners to migrate online; commission rate mid-term target of ≥3%, currently around 2%. - Yunda: Proactively reduces ultra-low-priced pieces, volume down price up (volume-down price-up) by -4%/+10%; has increased collaboration with new platforms like TikTok, leading to reverse件 growth of about 4 million pieces per day. - SF: E-commerce strategy is still in adjustment, with piece volume down 3% YoY and ASP up 5% to 14.2元, indicating improved revenue quality but strategic transformation progress is the key sentiment driver.
Analysis framework
The report采用'政策-数据-公司验证'的三层分析框架：首先以国家邮政局（SPB）和国家统计局（NBS）的宏观数据锚定行业基本面，识别ASP反弹与电商需求冷却的剪刀差；其次通过全球中国峰会的管理层访谈，获取一手信息以验证政策持续性和企业执行差异；最后将公司层面运营指标（件量、ASP、市占率、成本结构）与股价表现交叉比对，识别市场预期差。这种方法论的核心在于用高频运营数据（月度SPB数据）替代低频财报，提前捕捉行业拐点，同时以峰会渠道信息补充公开数据的滞后性。
Methodology notes
The core analytical paradigm for the express industry is the supply-demand framework: on the supply side, we look at policy discipline and capacity utilization, and on the demand side, we look at e-commerce GMV and category structure
The report breaks down the express industry into a 'policy constraint supply, e-commerce pull demand' dual model. When policy tightening (Counter内卷) occurs, supply-side price competition eases, ASP increases; when e-commerce demand slows, even if supply optimization occurs, total growth is limited. Currently, it is in a 'supPLY-side improvement, demand-side weakness' unique combination, and we need to separately track SPB data (supply) and NBS retail data (demand) to judge the turning point.
The express industry commonly uses the 'volume x price = revenue' volume-price split method to distinguish between 'volume-driven growth' and 'price-driven growth' growth quality
The report repeatedly contrasts piece volume growth rates and revenue growth rates: In April, piece volume grew 3.2% YoY while revenue grew 6.3%, with a differential of 3.1 percentage points contributed by ASP growth. This split helps identify whether the industry is in an 'incremental growth but reduced profitability' expansion phase or a 'stable volume with rising prices' optimization phase, which is clearly the latter.
In the context of price parity, the ability to provide reverse logistics, network stability, and automation capabilities becomes差异化护城河
The report emphasizes that when ASP gaps narrow, ZTO's peak daily reverse logistics processing capacity (10 million orders/day), J&T's Southeast Asia network, and YMM's digital matching efficiency become critical factors for market share and profitability. This highlights the transition from 'cost leadership' to 'differentiation' strategy.
Through the high-frequency monthly data (SPB express data, NBS retail data), predict industry景气 turning points, leading to quarter-end financial statements
The report judges that the express industry is at the intersection of the 'Dividend from policy' and 'Demand景气 bottom' periods. For investors, this means distinguishing between two main lines: 'supply-side improvements' and 'demand-side pressures'. The former benefits头部企业 with pricing power, strong cost transmission capabilities, and automation levels (such as ZTO and JD Logistics), while the latter puts pressure on companies heavily reliant on e-commerce and with category structures skewed towards discretionary consumption (such as SF's e-commerce pieces, certain appliance categories).
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- ZTO Express（中通快递，ZTO/2057.HK）首选标的，受益于反内卷政策持续、ASP反弹、反向物流壁垒及加盟网络优势
- Strengths
- 件量增速持续跑赢行业；反向物流日峰值1000万单，差异化壁垒深厚；末端自动化率提升；阿里减持影响有限
- Comparison
- 在通达系中执行力最强、网络最稳定，ASP提升弹性优于同行
- Risks
- 政策可持续性至2027年存不确定性；电商需求持续疲软或拖累件量
- JD Logistics（京东物流，2618.HK）首选标的，受益于供应链一体化能力及电商自营物流需求
- Strengths
- 供应链服务差异化；与京东电商生态协同；YTD股价+13%
- Comparison
- 与通达系直营/加盟模式不同，更偏供应链解决方案，受纯电商件波动影响相对较小
- Risks
- 电商GMV增速放缓或影响物流需求；一体化模式资本密集度较高
- SF Holdings（顺丰控股，002352.SZ/6936.HK）维持OW但非首选，策略转型进度是情绪拐点关键
- Strengths
- 品牌溢价；高端时效件基本盘稳固；ASP 14.2元为行业最高；电商策略调整中ASP+5%
- Weaknesses
- 电商件策略仍在调整，4月量-3%；战略转型进度慢于预期；YTD持续跑输
- Comparison
- vs ZTO/YTO：网络直营模式成本刚性更高，电商件竞争力待验证；vs JD物流：缺乏电商生态协同
- Risks
- 策略转型不及预期；电商需求疲软持续；成本端燃油价格波动
- YMM（满帮，YMM）中性评级，估值已反映监管和量增不确定性
- Strengths
- 数字化整车货运平台龙头；3月油价上涨推动货主线上迁移；海外扩张（埃及、土耳其、印尼、阿联酋）
- Weaknesses
- 4月高油价推升运价、压制低价货需求；佣金率仅约2%，距中期目标3%有差距
- Comparison
- vs快递企业：商业模式不同（平台撮合vs直营/加盟物流），但同样受电商需求和油价波动影响
- Risks
- 油价持续高位；监管政策变化；订单趋势反弹不及预期
- J&T（极兔速递）东南亚增长引擎，海外扩张积极，但中国市场仍在追赶
- Strengths
- 东南亚预计年增50%，人均件量仅为中国的1/4，空间巨大；与SF海外末端合作；拉美成本优势显著
- Weaknesses
- YTD股价-14%，跑输板块；中国市场品牌溢价仍弱于通达系头部
- Comparison
- vs ZTO/YTO：国际化程度最高，但中国市场盈利能力和网络稳定性有差距
- Risks
- 东南亚市场竞争加剧；燃油成本传导；中国市场价格战风险
Key data
- April Express Industry Business Volume16.84 billion pieces, up 3.2% YoY温和放缓的件量增长，政策约束下不再追求激进扩张
- April Express Industry Revenue128.91 billion yuan, up 6.3% YoYRevenue growth outpacing piece volume growth, driven by ASP growth
- April Industry Average Selling Price (ASP)7.65 yuan, up 3% YoYConsecutive rebound, effectiveness of Counter内卷 policy
- April Online Retail Growth Rate+2.3% YoY (+5.8% previously)明显的放缓，需求端承压
- April Online实物商品GMV Growth Rate+0.2% YoY (+2.5% previously)Lowest since December 2024, appliance and communication equipment categories dragged
- ZTO Q2 to Date Piece Volume Growth Rate10-13%略低于一季度13%，但显著跑赢行业
- YMM Full-year Direct Transport Volume Guidance13-17%Targeted high-speed growth, but uncertainty from oil price fluctuations
- YMM Current Commission Rate/Mid-term TargetAround 2% / At least 3%monetization提升空间仍大
Impact & implications
The report believes that the express industry is at the intersection of 'Dividend from policy' and 'Demand景气底部'. For investors, this means distinguishing between 'supply-side improvements' and 'demand-side pressures':前者有利于具备定价权、成本传导能力强、自动化水平高的头部企业（如ZTO、JD Logistics），后者则对电商依赖度高、类别结构偏可选消费的标的构成压力（如SF的电商件、部分家电品类）。从投资节奏看，二季度电商数据的持续疲软可能压制板块情绪，但快递行业的结构性改善（ASP反弹、利润修复）具有政策背书和企业共识，预计在需求企稳后将进一步放大盈利弹性。SF的策略转型是最大不确定性来源，若其电商件策略调整见效，可能迎来情绪修复；反之则可能持续跑输。YMM的估值已反映较多监管和量增不确定性，需等待订单趋势反弹和监管环境明朗化后方可重新评估。
Risks
- E-commerce demand持续疲软，尤其是家电、通讯器材、服装等可选消费品类增速下滑
- 燃油价格波动推升运营成本，若成本传导机制不畅将侵蚀利润
- Counter内卷政策持续性存疑，2027年后政策方向不明
- 高基数效应叠加补贴退坡，二季度e-commerce GMV增速或进一步承压
- SF策略转型进度不及预期，市场情绪难以改善
What to watch
- 5-6月电商促销（618）数据及线上实物商品GMV反弹力度
- ZTO第二季度件量增速能否维持在10-13%指引区间
- SF电商策略调整的执行进展及市场反馈
- YMM订单趋势是否出现明确反弹信号
- 燃油价格走势及企业成本传导效果
- Counter内卷政策的后续细化措施及监管动态