Goldman Sachs sees Hengrui’s ESC data reinforcing the value of its cardiovascular innovation pipeline

Overview

Goldman Sachs reviews Hengrui’s five cardiovascular datasets presented at ESC 2026. The institution argues that HRS-1893 has emerging better-in-class potential among next-generation cardiac myosin inhibitors, while HRS-5346 remains attractive as an oral Lp(a) therapy despite a major class-level Phase III setback.

Core views

Hengrui presented data spanning Lp(a), ANGPTL3, PCSK9 and RNA-based lipid lowering at ESC 2026. Goldman Sachs argues that the event strengthened its view that cardiovascular disease can become a meaningful innovation pillar alongside Hengrui’s oncology and obesity franchises. The portfolio spans cardiomyopathy, heart failure, lipid management and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, using small molecules, monoclonal antibodies and RNA-based therapies. Several assets are already moving into global development through partnerships, which the report views as external validation and a potential route to global commercialization. For HRS-1893 in non-obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, the report highlights a 5.5-point improvement in KCCQ at week 12 in its Phase II study. This compares favorably, on a cross-trial basis, with approximately a 3-point improvement for aficamten at week 36 in a Phase III study. Goldman Sachs also sees potentially differentiated convenience: most HRS-1893 patients required no titration or only one dose adjustment, versus the typical four-to-six-week titration period for aficamten. Available data showed limited LVEF reduction, supporting a favorable cardiac-safety profile. Braveheart began global Phase III development in obstructive HCM in August and plans to initiate global Phase III in non-obstructive HCM in the first half of 2027. Management also sees possible expansion into HFpEF patients with LVEF above 60%, although the report stresses that development risk is materially higher than in HCM and patient selection will be critical. Goldman Sachs believes Novartis’ failed Phase III Lp(a)HORIZON study does not eliminate the longer-term Lp(a) opportunity. HRS-5346 delivered an 86.3% reduction in Lp(a) at week 12, comparable with Eli Lilly’s high-dose oral muvalaplin result of -85.8% and above the reported -66.8% for pelacarsen, although these are non-head-to-head comparisons. The report says the key issue is whether detailed Lp(a)HORIZON cardiovascular-outcomes data show any directional benefit despite missing the primary endpoint. It notes that enrolled patients already had established cardiovascular disease and intensive background treatment, including PCSK9 inhibitors, which may have limited incremental event reduction. Deeper suppression by next-generation agents could matter if favorable outcome trends emerge, while primary-prevention populations may be more attractive because established-CVD patients can already have irreversible vascular damage. Goldman Sachs considers HRS-5346 one of Hengrui’s highest-value cardiovascular assets because of oral dosing, a clean liver-safety profile and potential combination use with statins and PCSK9 therapies. The report also identifies a broader dyslipidemia franchise. SHR-1918, an ANGPTL3 monoclonal antibody, achieved a 64.2% LDL-C reduction at week 12 in HoFH patients, slightly better than AstraZeneca’s reported 50.7% reduction for oral PCSK9 inhibitor laroprovstat in a cross-trial comparison. Although the HoFH population is limited to only tens of thousands of patients globally, Hengrui is pursuing larger indications including mixed dyslipidemia, severe hypertriglyceridemia, refractory hypercholesterolemia and hypertriglyceridemia-associated acute pancreatitis. Goldman Sachs expects SHR-1918, oral PCSK9 asset HRS-1301 and ApoC3 siRNA HRS-7249 to form the franchise backbone, supporting combination approaches for longer-term cardiovascular-risk management. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and Rmb73.86 12-month target price. Its valuation combines Rmb39.3bn for the generics business using a five-year exit P/E of 10x with Rmb390.7bn for innovative drugs using a risk-adjusted DCF, based on a 9.0% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate. The report sees HRS-1893 and HRS-5346 as the two most valuable cardiovascular assets and argues that successful execution could establish cardiovascular disease as Hengrui’s next globally competitive innovation franchise.

Analysis framework

The report assesses ESC clinical datasets against peer studies, while noting that the comparisons are cross-trial rather than head-to-head. It then links efficacy, safety, dosing convenience, indication expansion and global-development progress to the potential value of Hengrui’s cardiovascular portfolio, and values the company through a generics exit-P/E approach plus a risk-adjusted DCF for innovative drugs.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsP/E and PEG Valuation

  Five-year exit P/E valuation for Hengrui's generics business

  Goldman Sachs values the generics business at Rmb39.3bn using a 10x five-year exit P/E multiple.

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  Risk-adjusted DCF for innovative drugs

  The report derives Rmb390.7bn for innovative drugs using a 9.0% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate, with risk adjustment reflecting development uncertainty.

• Other

  Cross-trial clinical comparison

  The report compares efficacy and safety results from separate clinical trials to assess relative product positioning, while explicitly noting that these are not head-to-head comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hengrui Medicine (600276.SH)

  Primary covered company; cardiovascular pipeline is presented as a growing innovation and value-creation pillar.

  Strengths

  Broad cardiovascular portfolio, multiple therapeutic modalities, global-development partnerships, and potentially differentiated HRS-1893 and HRS-5346 assets.

  Weaknesses

  The company remains in a transition from a generics-plus-innovation model toward greater reliance on innovative drugs.

  Comparison

  HRS-1893, HRS-5346 and SHR-1918 are compared with peer clinical programs on a cross-trial basis.

  Risks

  Slower innovative-drug ramp after NRDL listing, late-stage R&D failures, global-expansion costs, pricing pressure and weaker-than-expected license-out or overseas progress.

Key data

• HRS-1893 KCCQ improvement5.5 points at week 12Phase II nHCM result; compared cross-trial with approximately 3 points for aficamten at week 36 in Phase III.
• HRS-5346 Lp(a) reduction-86.3% at week 12Comparable with high-dose muvalaplin at -85.8% and above reported pelacarsen reduction of -66.8% in non-head-to-head comparisons.
• SHR-1918 LDL-C reduction-64.2% at week 12Reported in HoFH patients; compared cross-trial with -50.7% for laroprovstat.
• Target priceRmb73.86Goldman Sachs 12-month target price.
• Innovative-drug valuationRmb390.7bnRisk-adjusted DCF using 9.0% WACC and 3% terminal growth.

Impact & implications

Goldman Sachs believes ESC supports the case for cardiovascular disease to become a significant long-term value driver for Hengrui. It particularly emphasizes HRS-1893’s possible differentiation in cardiomyopathy and HRS-5346’s potential in oral Lp(a) inhibition, while the broader lipid-lowering portfolio could support differentiated combination strategies.

Risks

• Innovative drugs may ramp more slowly than expected after NRDL listing.
• Key late-stage R&D programs may fail.
• R&D and administrative expenses for global expansion may exceed expectations.
• Price cuts for generics and innovative drugs may be greater than expected.
• License-out and overseas expansion progress may fall short of expectations.
• HFpEF development for HRS-1893 carries substantially higher risk than HCM development, and appropriate patient selection is critical.

What to watch

• Detailed cardiovascular-outcomes findings from Novartis’ Lp(a)HORIZON study for signs of directional benefit despite the missed primary endpoint.
• Global Phase III progress for HRS-1893 in obstructive HCM and planned initiation in non-obstructive HCM in the first half of 2027.
• Progress in expanding SHR-1918 and other lipid-lowering assets into larger dyslipidemia indications.
• Execution of Hengrui’s global-development partnerships and commercialization pathway.