Goldman Sachs updates the 2026-2027 global macro and market outlook

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs global investment research macro snapshot covering economic growth, inflation, policy rates, interest rates, FX, equities, commodities, and credit markets. The report’s core time horizon is concentrated in 2026–2027 and focuses on the U.S., China, the euro area, and global as the main macro regions, while setting out multiple market levels and forecast points.

Core views

Goldman’s base-case remains that global economic growth continues at a moderate pace but with clear regional divergence: U.S. growth stays around 2%, China maintains around 4.7% at a higher pace, and euro area growth is around 1% and weaker than some consensus expectations. On inflation, the report says tariff effects are fading, and housing and wage inflation are further normalizing, but higher energy prices could provide some offset. On the asset level, the report provides forecasts for U.S. Treasuries, German Bunds, Japanese government bonds, UK Gilts yields, major FX rates, the S&P 500, and price paths for energy, metals, gold, and credit spreads.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of macro forecast tables and multi-region GDP charts: on one side, it shows global, U.S., China, and euro area growth paths through current activity indicators, historical GDP, and Goldman forecasts; on the other side, a forecast table consolidates 2026-2027 outlooks for growth, rates, FX, equities, commodities, credit, and consumption indicators.

Methodology notes

• Macro forecastGS GIR Macro at a glance

  Cross-regional growth and market forecast framework

  It forms a global macro and cross-asset baseline scenario through indicators such as GDP, policy rates, market rates, FX, equity indices, commodity prices, and credit spreads.

• Economic activity trackingCurrent Activity Indicator

  Comparison of current activity indicators and GDP

  The chart places current activity indicators, historical GDP, and forward GDP forecasts on the same timeline to compare near-term economic momentum and annual growth judgments.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• S&P 500

  Affected by U.S. growth, earnings, and valuation expectations

  Strengths

  The forecast table shows a 2026 price of 7,600, EPS of $309, and 2027 EPS of $324, implying continued earnings growth.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation is elevated, with a 2026 expected P/E of 22.2x.

  Comparison

  The 12-month return forecast is 8.8%, higher than STOXX 600’s 1.0%, and close to MXAPJ’s 8.7%.

  Risks

  Rising rates, renewed inflation, or earnings shortfall could compress valuations.

• U.S. Treasuries

  Affected by policy rates, inflation, and growth expectations

  Strengths

  The 10-year yield forecast declines slightly from current 4.26% to 4.10% by end-2026.

  Weaknesses

  If energy prices push inflation higher, the room for yield declines may be limited.

  Comparison

  German 10-year yields are projected around 3.00%, Japan around 2.00%, and the UK from 4.67% to 4.40% and 4.25%.

  Risks

  Sticky inflation, fiscal issuance pressures, and policy-path shifts.

• US dollar and major currencies

  Affected by relative rates, growth differentials, and risk appetite

  Strengths

  $/JPY is projected to remain at a relatively elevated level, at 160 for 3 months and 155 for 12 months.

  Weaknesses

  EUR/$ is projected to rise to 1.20 at 12 months, which may imply a weaker dollar versus the euro.

  Comparison

  $/CNY is projected from current 6.80 to 6.70 at 12 months, indicating a slight expected strengthening of the RMB versus the dollar.

  Risks

  Central bank policy divergence, trade policy, and geopolitical risks.

• Brent crude

  Affected by supply shocks, energy price shocks, and global demand

  Strengths

  The current high price reflects supply risk and energy-related shocks.

  Weaknesses

  Forecasts imply a decline to $80 per barrel by Q4 2026.

  Comparison

  Gas and metal price paths differ, showing divergence across commodity groups.

  Risks

  Longer-lasting supply interruptions could materially affect the economy and markets.

• Gold

  Affected by real rates, hedging demand, and macro uncertainty

  Strengths

  Forecasts rise from current $4,795/oz to $5,308/oz by Q4 2026.

  Weaknesses

  If real rates rise or risk appetite improves, the gold upside narrative may weaken.

  Comparison

  In contrast to the expected oil pullback, the gold forecast is more upward-biased.

  Risks

  A stronger dollar, rising rates, or declining hedging demand.

• US dollar credit

  Affected by growth, funding conditions, and risk appetite

  Strengths

  Investment-grade spreads are forecast to widen from 79bp to 90-95bp but remain in a manageable range.

  Weaknesses

  High-yield spreads are forecast to widen from 268bp to 335bp in Q2 2026.

  Comparison

  High-yield credit is more sensitive than investment-grade credit to growth deceleration and higher financing costs.

  Risks

  Economic slowdown, rising default expectations, and tighter liquidity.

Key data

• Global GDP growth2026: 2.6%, 2027: 2.6% (calendar-year basis)The forecast table shows a Q4/Q4 basis of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.
• U.S. GDP growth2026: 2.0%, 2027: 2.0% (calendar-year basis)The forecast table shows a Q4/Q4 basis of 2.1% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027.
• China GDP growth2026: 4.7%, 2027: 4.7% (calendar-year basis)The chart also marks about 4.7% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Euro area GDP growth2026: 1.0%, 2027: 1.0% (calendar-year basis)The Q4/Q4 forecast is 0.6% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027.
• U.S. policy rate2026: 3.13%, 2027: 3.13%Market pricing is 3.54% and 3.29%, respectively.
• 10-year US Treasury yieldCurrent 4.26%, end-2026 4.10%, end-2027 4.15%The rates section of the forecast table.
• EUR/$Current 1.18, 3 months 1.14, 12 months 1.20FX forecast.
• $/CNYCurrent 6.80, 3 months 6.85, 12 months 6.70FX forecast.
• S&P 5002026 target 7,600, 2026 EPS $309, 2027 EPS $324Equity market forecast.
• Brent crudeCurrent $95/bbl, Q2 2026 $90/bbl, Q4 2026 $80/bblCommodity forecast.
• GoldCurrent $4,795/oz, Q2 2026 $4,865/oz, Q4 2026 $5,308/ozCommodity forecast.
• USIG credit spreadCurrent 79bp, Q2 2026 95bp, Q4 2026 90bpCredit market forecast.

Impact & implications

For asset allocation, the report conveys a combination of moderate growth, gradually normalizing inflation, and ongoing energy-driven volatility. If growth remains resilient and the policy-rate path is stable, equities and risk assets remain supported; however, higher energy prices, supply interruptions, and a reacceleration of inflation could increase rate volatility and credit spreads. The upward gold forecast and declining oil forecast reflect Goldman’s differentiated view on commodity supply-demand and safe-haven characteristics.

Risks

• Higher energy prices could offset disinflation and raise economic and market volatility.
• A more persistent supply interruption over a longer horizon could have a significant impact on the economy and markets.
• If the normalization pace of tariff, wage, and housing inflation is slower than expected, the rate path could change.
• Weaker euro area growth could further weaken Europe’s risk assets if demand softens.
• The richly valued equity market is more sensitive to rate revisions and earnings downgrades.

What to watch

• Whether U.S. core inflation peaks around Q3 and declines as projected in the report.
• Whether U.S. unemployment and wage inflation continue to normalize.
• Whether Brent crude follows the forecast path of falling from elevated levels, or stays high due to supply disruptions.
• Differences between policy-rate paths and market pricing for the Fed, ECB, PBOC, and BOJ.
• Whether S&P 500 earnings growth can support the 7,600-level forecast.
• Whether credit spreads widen only gradually as expected or whether a sharper risk repricing occurs.