Goldwind Technology 2025 results call takeaways: 2026 turbine shipments and gross margin improvement are the key highlights

Overview

This report summarizes the key takeaways from Goldwind Technology's 2025 results conference call. The core focus is the 2026 operating guidance: a materially higher turbine shipment target, a slight improvement in turbine gross margin, and a possible decline in wind farm asset disposals. The report also provides Morgan Stanley's target price, rating, valuation method, and main risks for the H shares.

Core views

Goldwind Technology's 2026 growth momentum mainly comes from turbine shipment expansion, especially in domestic onshore and export businesses. On margins, the company expects turbine GPM to rise from 8.95% in 2025 to 9-10% in 2026, but the improvement is not even across segments: domestic turbines should be stronger, while domestic offshore and overseas businesses may edge down modestly. On valuation, the H-share target price is based on a 10-year DCF model, with a 30% A-H premium assumption applied to the H-share target price.

Analysis framework

The report uses the results call notes, management guidance, Morgan Stanley ModelWare forecasts, Refinitiv consensus estimates, and a DCF valuation framework, combined with the rating definition and industry coverage methodology, to assess the stock's relative return over the next 12-18 months.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods10-year DCF model

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  The H-share target price is the base-case value derived from a 10-year DCF model, with key assumptions including WACC, long-term growth, and capital structure.

• Valuation assumptionWACC

  Weighted average cost of capital

  The report discloses a WACC of 8.8%, including a 10.0% cost of equity, a 4.9% after-tax cost of debt, and a 30.0% long-term debt-to-capital ratio.

• Cross-market valuationA-H premium

  A-share versus H-share valuation gap

  The report applies a 30% premium to the H-share target price, believing the new A-H premium benchmark better reflects differences in risk appetite between the two markets.

• Data sourceMorgan Stanley ModelWare / Refinitiv Estimates

  Sell-side model and consensus estimates

  The report notes that, unless otherwise stated, metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare; consensus data come from Refinitiv Estimates.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Goldwind Technology (2208.HK)

  Primary coverage name, H-share

  Strengths

  Strong 2026 shipment guidance, expected improvement in domestic onshore turbine gross margin, and higher export scale versus 2025.

  Weaknesses

  Wind farm disposals are expected to decline, while domestic offshore and overseas turbine gross margins may edge down modestly.

  Comparison

  The H-share target price uses an A-H premium assumption, reflecting differences in market risk appetite between A shares and H shares.

  Risks

  Slower wind power installations, declining turbine gross margins, and low wind farm utilization hours.

• Goldwind (002202.SZ)

  Same company, A-share

  Strengths

  Benefits from growth in China's wind power installations and turbine shipments.

  Weaknesses

  The A-share rating history showed Underweight as of 2026-01-20, with a different risk-reward profile from the H-share view.

  Comparison

  The H-share target price valuation references the new A-H premium benchmark.

  Risks

  Changes in the A-H valuation gap and fluctuations in industry fundamentals.

Key data

• 2026 total turbine shipment guidance40GWIncluding 32GW domestic onshore, 2.7-3GW domestic offshore, and 7GW exports.
• 2025 turbine shipmentsabout 30GWIncluding 24GW domestic onshore, 2.7GW domestic offshore, and 3.97GW exports.
• 2026 turbine GPM guidance9-10%Actual 2025 figure was 8.95%.
• China offshore wind installation expectationabout 10GW in 2026Up from 6.6GW in 2025.
• Green methanol revenue guidanceseveral hundred million RMBManagement expects to reach this scale in 2026.
• H-share target priceHKS16.63Implying about 11% upside from the HKS14.92 close.

Impact & implications

If the 2026 40GW shipment target and 9-10% turbine gross margin are achieved, visibility on Goldwind Technology's earnings improvement will strengthen; however, lower wind farm disposals may affect contributions from non-equipment businesses, and pressure on offshore and overseas margins will also limit overall profit leverage. The current rating remains Equal-weight, indicating the report emphasizes a relatively balanced risk-reward profile rather than a one-sided bullish stance.

Risks

• Upside risks include faster wind power installations and a recovery in turbine gross margin.
• Downside risks include declining turbine gross margin and low wind farm capacity utilization efficiency.
• Document No. 136 may lead to fewer wind farm disposals in 2026.
• Overseas and domestic offshore turbine gross margins may edge down modestly.
• Morgan Stanley discloses that it may have business relationships with the covered company, and investors should treat this report as only one of the factors in making an investment decision.

What to watch

• Whether the 2026 40GW shipment target is achieved according to the domestic onshore, offshore, and export mix.
• Whether turbine GPM can improve from 8.95% in 2025 to 9-10%.
• Whether China's offshore wind installations reach about 10GW.
• The impact of fewer wind farm disposals on profit and cash flow.
• Whether green methanol revenue reaches a several-hundred-million-RMB scale.
• Whether the A-H premium remains around the report's assumed 30% level.