Swiss watch exports fell 17% YoY in April, with the high base from U.S. tariffs the main drag

Overview

This report is a quick comment by Citigroup on the European luxury goods sector, with the core focus on Swiss watch export data for April 2026. Headline data showed a 17% YoY decline, but Citigroup believes this drop was mainly caused by an unusually high base in the U.S. market due to the tariff announcement in April 2025. Excluding the U.S. and the Middle East, exports in other regions rose 5% YoY, improving from March and indicating resilience in underlying demand.

Core views

Citigroup’s core views are: first, the headline decline in Swiss watch exports in April should not be simply interpreted as a broad deterioration in global demand, because the high U.S. base explains a substantial part of the decline; second, Greater China data continued to improve, but mainly benefited from easier comparisons; third, Japan and Europe remain weak, especially Japan, dragged down by soft local and tourist demand; fourth, tensions in the Middle East may affect tourist flows to Europe and spill over into consumer confidence in the U.S. and Europe.

Analysis framework

The report uses regional breakdowns and base-effect analysis, comparing the U.S., the Middle East, Greater China, Japan, Europe, and other regions separately, while also observing changes relative to March. Citigroup estimates export growth closer to underlying demand by excluding the U.S. and the Middle East, and also uses a two-year basis to help assess growth quality.

Methodology notes

• High-frequency industry data analysisRegional exclusion method

  Observe underlying demand after excluding exceptional regions

  April data for the U.S. was affected by the high base created by a surge in exports following the tariff announcement in the prior year, while the Middle East was affected by regional disruptions; after excluding these two regions, the remaining regions posted 5% YoY growth, which is used to assess a more stable demand trend.

• Growth quality analysisComparison of YoY and two-year basis

  Observe both single-year YoY and cumulative two-year changes

  The report notes that regions outside the U.S. and the Middle East grew 5% YoY in April, but were down 3% on a two-year basis, indicating that short-term YoY improvement still needs to be judged against a longer comparison period.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• European luxury goods equities

  Swiss watch exports are an important high-frequency reference indicator for high-end consumer demand, tourist spending, and channel inventory.

  Strengths

  Excluding the U.S. and the Middle East, other regions grew 5% YoY in April; Greater China improved to 15% YoY growth.

  Weaknesses

  Headline exports fell 17% YoY; Japan fell 12% YoY and Europe fell 2% YoY.

  Comparison

  Overall YoY fell 1% in March, and the decline widened in April; however, excluding the U.S. and the Middle East, YoY growth rose from 1% in March to 5% in April.

  Risks

  U.S. high-base distortion, declining tourist flows in Europe, weak demand in Japan, spillover from tensions in the Middle East, and weakening consumer confidence in the U.S. and Europe.

• Swiss watch industry

  The report directly analyzes Swiss watch exports, and the data can be mapped to demand momentum for high-end watch brands and luxury groups.

  Strengths

  Greater China, Mainland China, and Hong Kong all posted double-digit YoY growth.

  Weaknesses

  The U.S. market fell sharply by 56% YoY, while Japan remained in double-digit decline.

  Comparison

  The U.S. deteriorated from a 2% YoY decline in March to a 56% YoY decline in April; the Middle East improved from a 21% YoY decline in March to an 11% YoY decline in April.

  Risks

  Tariff-related base effects may continue to distort YoY readings, while regional conflict and changes in tourism spending may affect high-end watch purchases.

Key data

• Swiss watch exports in AprilYoY -17%March was YoY -1%; the deterioration in April was mainly dragged down by the high base in the U.S. market.
• U.S. marketYoY -56%March was YoY -2%; the U.S. accounted for about 17% of exports in 2025, and the export surge after the tariff announcement in April 2025 created a high base.
• Middle East marketYoY -11%Improved from YoY -21% in March; the Middle East accounts for about 10% of exports.
• Other regions excluding the U.S. and the Middle EastYoY +5%; two-year basis -3%In March, these were YoY +1% and +2% on a two-year basis, showing short-term improvement in underlying demand but weakening on a two-year basis.
• Greater ChinaYoY +15%March was YoY +2%, and January to February was YoY -2%; Mainland China was YoY +17%, and Hong Kong was YoY +14%.
• JapanYoY -12%March was YoY -13%; local demand and tourist demand remain soft.
• EuropeYoY -2%Weakened from YoY +7% in February; parallel-market dynamics in France may still be partly lifting European data.

Impact & implications

For European luxury goods and high-end watch-related assets, the negative headline shock from April data needs to be interpreted in parts: the high U.S. base caused a sharp decline in total exports, but excluding exceptional regions, there was still low-single-digit growth. From an investment perspective, the market may focus more on whether the recovery in Greater China is sustainable, whether demand in Japan and Europe can stabilize, and whether geopolitical risk in the Middle East will further affect tourist flows and consumer confidence.

Risks

• The high base in the U.S. market distorts YoY export readings and may amplify market concerns about worsening demand.
• Tensions in the Middle East may spill over into tourist flows to Europe, thereby affecting luxury store sales.
• Continued weakness in local and tourist demand in Japan may weigh on high-end consumption performance in Asia-Pacific.
• European data may be affected by parallel-market factors in France, so true end demand needs to be judged cautiously.
• Further weakening in consumer confidence in the U.S. and Europe may suppress high-end discretionary spending.

What to watch

• Whether the high-base effect in the U.S. fades in subsequent months and whether total export YoY growth returns to normal.
• Whether the improvement in Greater China can continue under a higher comparison base.
• Whether local demand and tourist spending in Japan can stabilize.
• The actual impact of the Middle East situation on European tourism flows and luxury consumption.
• Whether the European market is still being supported by parallel-market factors, or whether end demand is genuinely recovering.