Nomura's Asian Export Leading Index continues to rise, pointing to an export supercycle
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Nomura's Asian Export Leading Index continues to rise, pointing to an export supercycle
Nomura believes that NELI's rise to 124.2 shows that export momentum in Asia ex-Japan has not slowed entering Q3, with the AI technology supercycle remaining the core driver.
- NELI consists of nine components and leads overall exports from Asia ex-Japan by approximately three months.
- The index rose to 124.2 and continued its upward trend, indicating that underlying export growth momentum remains strong.
- Technology-related indicators remained robust, while rising Chinese import demand jointly supported the export cycle.
- A renewed escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz, and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could cause supply chain pressures to re-emerge.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report focuses on Nomura's Asian Export Leading Index (NELI) and assesses export momentum in Asia ex-Japan. Its core conclusion is that NELI has continued to rise to higher levels, indicating that Asian export growth momentum remains strong entering the third quarter of 2026 and may be part of an export supercycle driven by AI technology demand.
Core views
First, NELI has historically anticipated major turning points reasonably well and has been less distorted by base effects in official export data, making it a leading indicator of underlying Asian export momentum. Second, the index rose to 124.2, showing no signs of slowing export growth. Third, the AI technology supercycle remains the main driver, with signs of broadening. Fourth, geopolitical conflicts, blockages at key shipping routes, and disruptions to Red Sea freight could cause global supply chain pressures to re-emerge, creating downside risks for Asian exports.
Analysis framework
The report adopts a leading-indicator framework, using NELI as a tool for observing overall export momentum in Asia ex-Japan, while incorporating technology-related indicators, Chinese import demand, and global supply chain risks into its assessment.
Methodology notes
Nomura's Asian Export Leading Index
NELI consists of nine components and leads overall exports from Asia ex-Japan by approximately three months, aiming to capture export growth momentum that is less affected by base effects.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Asia ex-Japan export chainDirectly affected by the export momentum indicated by NELI
- Strengths
- The leading indicator continues to rise, indicating strong export growth momentum.
- Weaknesses
- Sensitive to global trade, shipping, and supply chain stability.
- Comparison
- Compared with official export data, NELI is described in the report as being less distorted by base effects.
- Risks
- Geopolitical conflicts, shipping route blockages, and Red Sea freight disruptions could create downside pressure.
- AI- and semiconductor-related supply chainsThe report states that the AI technology supercycle is the main driver of Asian export growth
- Strengths
- Technology-related indicators remain strong, and the cycle shows signs of broadening.
- Weaknesses
- Industry conditions depend on the persistence of AI capital expenditure and end-market demand.
- Comparison
- Compared with non-technology exports, technology-related indicators have contributed more prominently to the current export momentum.
- Risks
- A resurgence in supply chain pressures or weakening external demand could reduce momentum.
Key data
- Latest NELI level124.2The report states that NELI rose to 124.2 in August and continued its upward trend.
- Lead timethree monthsNELI is described as leading overall exports from Asia ex-Japan by approximately three months.
- Main driverAI technology supercycleThe report believes that the AI technology cycle remains the main driver of Asian export growth, with signs of broadening.
Impact & implications
If the signal from NELI materializes, Asian export-oriented industries, technology hardware, semiconductors, and AI-related supply chains may continue to benefit; however, an escalation in Middle East conflicts or risks involving key straits or Red Sea shipping could create supply chain pressures and transport disruptions that weaken export growth momentum.
Risks
- A renewed escalation in the conflict between the US and Iran could increase geopolitical risks.
- Potential blockages involving the Strait of Hormuz could affect energy and logistics routes.
- Threats to Red Sea freight from Houthi forces could disrupt global shipping.
- A re-emergence of global supply chain pressures could cause downside risks for Asian exports to become more apparent.
What to watch
- Whether NELI continues to rise at elevated levels or reaches a turning point.
- Whether technology-related export indicators remain strong and broaden into more areas.
- Whether Chinese import demand continues to improve.
- Whether disruptions related to the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, and Red Sea shipping escalate further.
- Whether official Asian export data validates the NELI signal over the next three months.