Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on MinebeaMitsumi as confidence in AI server and humanoid robot demand improves

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' view update after a meeting with MinebeaMitsumi Co., Ltd. (6479.T) CEO Yoshihisa Kainuma. The core conclusion is that management's confidence in business opportunities in AI servers, data centers, and humanoid robot applications has increased markedly, and demand is materializing at a faster pace than previously expected. Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and 12-month target price of ¥4,000.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes MinebeaMitsumi is entering a new demand cycle driven by AI servers, data centers, and humanoid robots. The company has decided to increase monthly bearing capacity by 40 million units and may expand further in the future to avoid supply shortages. Demand for fan motor bearings used in AI servers and data centers is very strong; in humanoid robots, inquiries for bearings, sensors, and high-reliability precision parts have increased significantly. The report also notes that as agentic AI adoption increases CPU counts, demand for fan motor bearings may benefit; even if water-cooling penetration rises, the decline in air-cooling-related demand may be smaller than the incremental demand increase.

Analysis framework

The report is based on the CEO meeting minutes, management's comments on demand and capacity, Goldman Sachs' estimate of FY3/27 external sales growth, and a relative valuation framework. Goldman Sachs draws an analogy between MinebeaMitsumi and the re-rating path seen historically after supply-demand tightening in passive components, and believes precision machining component makers may also re-rate with a lag. The target price uses an FY3/28E EV/GCI versus CROCI/WACC framework and applies the industry average EV/DACF multiple of 8x.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodEV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC

  Based on FY3/28E EV/GCI relative to CROCI/WACC and referencing the industry average EV/DACF multiple

  Goldman Sachs says the 12-month target price of ¥4,000 is based on FY3/28E EV/GCI relative to CROCI/WACC and an industry average EV/DACF multiple of 8x; this target price corresponds to FY3/27E P/E of 17x and FY3/28E P/E of 15x.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compares stock characteristics across growth, financial return, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  GS Factor Profile uses Goldman Sachs forecasts and comparisons with the market and industry peers to calculate growth, financial return, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles, providing investment context for the stock.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Rates the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target on a scale of 1 to 3

  Goldman Sachs' M&A Rank categorizes covered companies into levels 1 to 3 based on the probability of being acquired; 1 indicates a high probability of 30%-50%, 2 indicates a medium probability of 15%-30%, and 3 indicates a low probability of 0%-15%.

• Data platformQuantum

  Goldman Sachs' proprietary financial database

  Quantum provides detailed historical financial statements, forecasts, and ratios that can be used for single-company deep dives as well as cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MinebeaMitsumi Co., Ltd. (6479.T)

  Coverage name, Buy rating

  Strengths

  Has technical and capacity foundations in bearings, sensors, actuators, and high-precision machining components, benefiting from stronger demand in AI servers, data centers, and humanoid robots.

  Weaknesses

  Needs continued capacity expansion to avoid supply shortages; some demand is still at the inquiry and early monetization stage.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs compares its valuation re-rating path to precision machining component makers potentially re-rating later, after passive components such as MLCCs re-rated first amid tighter supply-demand conditions.

  Risks

  Higher input costs, lower auto production, FX volatility, and demand from AI servers or humanoid robots falling short of expectations.

• AI servers/data centers

  Key demand driver

  Strengths

  Demand for fan motor bearings is very strong, and the spread of agentic AI may increase CPU counts and boost cooling-related component demand.

  Weaknesses

  Substitution toward water cooling may affect some air-cooling demand.

  Comparison

  The report suggests that the increase in air-cooling demand from higher CPU counts may outweigh the decline caused by water cooling.

  Risks

  Changes in server architecture, shifts in cooling solutions, and fluctuations in capital expenditure could affect the demand trajectory.

• Humanoid robots

  Medium- to long-term incremental application

  Strengths

  Inquiry activity for bearings, sensors, and high-reliability precision components is very strong, and bearing usage per unit is high.

  Weaknesses

  The pace of commercial scale-up remains uncertain.

  Comparison

  A single humanoid robot uses more than twice as many bearings as a high-end automobile, with higher requirements for precision and durability.

  Risks

  The pace of end-market mass production, cost reduction progress, and customer project monetization may fall short of expectations.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-25The report cover shows 25May2026 10:07AM JST.
• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on MinebeaMitsumi.
• 12-month target price¥4,000Based on FY3/28E EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC and the industry average EV/DACF multiple of 8x.
• Disclosed price¥3,992MinebeaMitsumi Inc.'s price is listed as ¥3,992 in the company-specific disclosure.
• Bearing capacity expansionIncrease by 40 million units per monthThe company has decided to raise bearing output by 40 million units per month and may further increase capacity in the future.
• Fan motor bearing share of external salesAbout one-thirdGoldman Sachs estimates that about one-third of external sales volume is fan motor bearings.
• FY3/27 fan motor bearing growthAbout 30%Goldman Sachs estimates FY3/27 fan motor bearing sales growth of 30%, with AI server and data center applications possibly higher.
• Humanoid robot bearing usageMore than twice that of a high-end automobileThe CEO said a single humanoid robot uses more bearings than a high-end automobile, such as a Toyota Lexus.
• Implied valuationFY3/27E P/E 17x; FY3/28E P/E 15xValuation multiples implied by the target price.

Impact & implications

The report is positive for MinebeaMitsumi's investment case: if demand from AI servers, data centers, and humanoid robots continues to strengthen, the company's high-precision bearings, sensors, and actuator businesses could benefit and potentially see a valuation re-rating. Goldman Sachs is particularly focused on the potential tailwind for fan motor bearings from higher CPU counts driven by agentic AI, as well as the increasing demand for Japanese high-precision machining technology due to the hand precision and durability requirements of humanoid robots.

Risks

• Input cost increases exceed expectations.
• Lower auto production affects related business demand.
• FX volatility impacts earnings and valuation.
• Demand realization from AI servers/data centers or humanoid robots falls short of expectations.
• Insufficient expansion may lead to supply shortages, while overly aggressive expansion could pressure utilization or profitability.

What to watch

• Utilization after the company's bearing capacity increases by 40 million units per month and any further expansion plans.
• Whether FY3/27 fan motor bearing sales reach or exceed Goldman Sachs' estimated 30% growth.
• Structural changes between air cooling and water cooling in AI server and data center thermal solutions.
• The pace at which humanoid robot customer inquiries convert into orders and mass production.
• Whether the actuator business can contribute stable earnings while maintaining a certain level of profitability.
• Whether MinebeaMitsumi's valuation shows a delayed upside move similar to the re-rating seen in passive components.