US retail May MTD sales index turned slightly positive, but same-store traffic continued to decline

Overview

This report is a retail trend tracker published by Goldman Sachs Equity Research, with a core focus on US retail May MTD performance. The key conclusion in the report title is that May MTD TRE was +0.4%, while same-store ShopperTrak traffic was -3.2%. The report also explains the uses of indicators such as the GS/TRE Weekly Chain Store Sales Index, ShopperTrak traffic, weather, and gasoline prices.

Core views

The main signal conveyed by the report is a divergence between retail sales and store traffic performance: the GS/TRE Raw Index was slightly positive, indicating that consumer data correlated with monthly same-store sales still showed some resilience; however, same-store ShopperTrak traffic declined, showing weak offline store visitation. Because traffic does not reflect changes in conversion rates, the report cautions against judging same-store sales based on traffic alone.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency retail tracking framework, combining the Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index, ShopperTrak store visit data, retail-weighted temperature and precipitation, and US retail gasoline prices to observe short-term retail sales health and potential changes in the consumer environment.

Methodology notes

• retail_sales_trackingGS/TRE Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

  weekly chain store sales index

  This index is compiled by Goldman Sachs and was historically co-produced by Goldman Sachs and The Retail Economist. It is the successor to the GS/ICSC Index; its raw year-over-year change is relatively correlated with monthly same-store sales results, while seasonally adjusted data are used to smooth disturbances such as calendar effects and weather.

• retail_traffic_trackingShopperTrak

  retail and outlet mall traffic

  ShopperTrak uses proprietary forecasting methods to track Total Retail and Outlet Mall shopper visits; its correlation with the same-store sales index is low because traffic does not reflect changes in conversion rates, but over the long term it has some directional relationship with same-store sales at apparel retailers and department stores.

• macro_consumer_inputsretail weighted national average temperature and gasoline prices

  retail-weighted weather and gasoline price tracking

  The report calculates the retail-weighted national average temperature based on the store counts of major apparel retailers, and tracks recent temperatures, precipitation versus historical norms, and US regional retail gasoline prices to help assess the consumer and traffic environment.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US Specialty Retail equities

  relevant to industry trends

  Strengths

  The GS/TRE Raw Index was +0.4%, indicating that high-frequency indicators related to same-store sales remained slightly positive.

  Weaknesses

  Same-store ShopperTrak traffic was -3.2%, reflecting weak offline visitation.

  Comparison

  Traffic data have a low correlation with the same-store sales index, one reason being that traffic does not reflect changes in conversion rates.

  Risks

  If weak traffic persists and conversion rates cannot offset it, retailers' same-store sales and market expectations may come under pressure.

• Apparel retailers and department stores

  traffic directional reference

  Strengths

  Over the long term, ShopperTrak traffic direction has some relationship with same-store sales at apparel retailers and department stores.

  Weaknesses

  A decline in traffic in a single period may reflect store visitation pressure and cannot directly indicate sales performance.

  Comparison

  Compared with online or high-conversion-rate channels, offline store-based retail is more vulnerable to fluctuations in store traffic.

  Risks

  Weather, gasoline prices, consumer spending willingness, and changes in conversion rates may all amplify or offset the impact of traffic.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-27The report cover shows 27 May 2026 | 9:15AM MDT.
• May MTD GS/TRE Raw Index+0.4%Exhibit 1 shows that the May MTD Raw Index was +0.4%.
• May MTD same-store ShopperTrak traffic-3.2%The title and chart annotations show same-store ShopperTrak traffic of -3.2%.
• Number of stocks covered by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research3,074The disclosure page shows that as of 2026-04-01, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,074 stocks.

Impact & implications

For the US retail sector, the slight positive growth in the sales index can be viewed as a signal that demand still has some resilience, but the decline in same-store traffic means pressure on offline store traffic remains. From an investment perspective, sales, traffic, conversion rates, weather, and gasoline prices should all be monitored together, rather than treating a single traffic indicator as directly equivalent to the same-store sales trend.

Risks

• ShopperTrak traffic has a low correlation with the same-store sales index, so using it alone may lead to misjudgment of sales trends.
• Weather, calendar changes, and other exogenous factors may distort weekly sales and traffic data.
• Changes in gasoline prices may affect consumers' disposable spending and travel behavior.
• This report is an industry trend tracker and does not provide ratings or target prices for single companies, so it cannot directly replace single-stock fundamental research.

What to watch

• Whether the final full-month same-store sales results for May will be consistent with the MTD GS/TRE Raw Index.
• Whether same-store ShopperTrak traffic will continue to decline or begin to stabilize.
• Whether the decline in traffic will be offset by higher conversion rates, average ticket size, or online sales.
• The impact of US regional weather, precipitation, and retail gasoline prices on traffic at apparel retail and department store locations.